MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Nationals vs. Braves, Brewers vs. Padres, and Cardinals vs. Giants.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Monday, September 22.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
7:15 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Nationals starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore has a 4.00 ERA, but in his two starts in September has allowed just two runs across 10 1/3 innings. For the season, he owns a 3.64 fielding independent with 10.4 strikeouts and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings, but is supported by a bullpen that has the highest ERA in the league at 5.60. Braves starting pitcher has allowed only five runs across his four starts since coming off the injured list, posting a 2.35 ERA for the season with 11.7 strikeouts and 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA at 4.24 and faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 11th in road scoring with 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.6)
9:40 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta appears due for a bit of regression on his 2.65 ERA with 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings for a 3.61 fielding independent, but he has allowed zero or one run in six of his past seven starts. Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta has been at his best at home this season, posting a 2.81 ERA with 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed, which improves to a 2.22 ERA at home with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Brewers lineup that leads the National League in scoring on the road with 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.6)
9:45 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants starting pitcher Justin Verlander has pitched better than his 3–10 record would indicate, posting a 3.75 ERA and 3.71 fielding independent with only 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed. Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy isn’t self-inflicting damage, with only 0.8 home runs and 1.6 walks per nine innings allowed, but he owns a 4.08 ERA because he’s pitching to too much contact with only 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.9)
