MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Marlins vs. Phillies, Mets vs. Cubs, and Royals vs. Angels.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Thursday, September 25.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
12:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pirates starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft has been highly effective both in the rotation and out of the bullpen, posting a 2.62 ERA with 9.1 strikeouts and 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s supported by a lineup that ranks last in home runs and overall scoring with 3.6 runs per game. Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo has a career-best 3.44 ERA despite a career-low 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings, thanks to improved control, allowing only 1.7 walks per nine.
Pick: Reds Run Line -1.5 +133 (Greg’s Handicap Reds -1.5 +114)
6:05 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk has allowed at least three runs in nine of his past 10 starts and owns a 4.27 ERA despite a 3.23 fielding independent. He’s issued just 1.1 walks and 0.7 home runs per nine innings but struggles to miss bats with only 6.2 strikeouts per nine. He faces a Phillies lineup that ranks second in scoring at home with 5.5 runs per game, while the Marlins are fifth in road scoring at 4.9 runs per game. Phillies starter Walker Buehler has been sharper in his two outings since joining the team, allowing one run in 8 2/3 innings, but still carries a 5.13 ERA and 5.71 fielding independent for the season with 1.6 home runs and 4.3 walks per nine.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.6)
7:05 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
The White Sox offense ranks ninth in scoring since the All-Star Break but faces Carlos Rodón, who has allowed two runs or fewer in nine straight starts and has a 3.04 ERA with one home run allowed per nine innings. White Sox starter Davis Martin has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight straight appearances and owns a 4.03 ERA overall this season, though his 4.72 fielding independent suggests regression. He’s averaging just six strikeouts per nine innings with 1.3 home runs and three walks allowed per nine, and he faces a Yankees lineup that leads the league in home runs and overall scoring at over 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 9.2)
7:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
Mets rookie Nolan McLean has been masterful since his call-up, posting a 1.27 ERA in six starts with just one home run allowed in 42 2/3 innings. He faces a Cubs lineup that ranks 28th in scoring since the All-Star Break, averaging just under four runs per game. Cubs starter Shota Imanaga appears due for regression on his 3.37 ERA, with 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings contributing to a 4.78 fielding independent, though the regression may be delayed with winds expected to blow in heavily at Wrigley Field.
Picks: Cubs Moneyline -104 and Under 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Cubs -116 and Total 6.8)
9:38 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starter Mitch Farris owns a 6.52 ERA in his four MLB starts but did hold the Royals to one run in five innings on the road in his debut. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA at 4.87 and a lineup that is 28th in on-base percentage. Royals starter Michael Lorenzen has a 4.70 ERA with 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that ranks seventh with a 3.63 ERA.
Picks: Royals Moneyline -105 and Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Royals -130 and Total 8.9)
