MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Rays vs. Jays, Mets vs. Marlins, Reds vs. Brewers, and Diamondbacks vs. Padres.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Friday, September 26.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
7:07 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays starting pitcher Shane Bieber owns a 3.57 ERA in his six starts since coming off the injured list, though he has had some issues with the long ball, allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings. He is backed by a Blue Jays lineup that leads the American League in scoring since the All-Star break, averaging more than 5.3 runs per game. Rays starting pitcher Adrian Houser has struggled in his nine starts with Tampa Bay since being dealt from the Chicago White Sox at the trade deadline, posting a 4.65 ERA with 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings after putting up a 2.10 ERA with 0.4 home runs allowed per nine in 11 starts with the White Sox.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.4)
7:10 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara has had a rough season overall with a 5.48 ERA, but his 4.26 fielding independent pitching shows he’s been a bit unlucky. He’s allowed just 1.1 home runs per nine innings, and his ERA improves to 4.53 at home with fewer than one home run allowed per nine. Mets starting pitcher Brandon Sproat is making just his fourth career start, posting a 3.96 ERA with no home runs allowed in 16 innings since being promoted to the big leagues.
Picks: Marlins Moneyline +112 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Marlins +106 and Total 8.6)
7:15 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves
Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller owns a 4.22 ERA despite limiting damage with only one home run and 2.4 walks allowed per nine innings, though he’s averaging just 7.5 strikeouts per nine. He’s supported by a lineup that ranks last in the league in both home runs and scoring, at 3.6 runs per game. Braves starting pitcher Joey Wentz has pitched better than his 5.46 ERA suggests, with a 3.97 fielding independent pitching mark, 8.5 strikeouts, and one home run allowed per nine innings this season.
Pick: Braves Run Line -1.5 +132 (Greg’s Handicap Braves -1.5 +118)
8:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Quinn Priester has had a strong season, but his 3.25 ERA looks due for regression, backed by a 4.08 fielding independent with 7.6 strikeouts and 2.9 walks per nine innings. Reds starting pitcher Zack Littell has struggled with hard contact, recording only 6.3 strikeouts per nine while giving up 1.8 home runs per nine innings. His 3.86 ERA also appears unsustainable, given his 4.93 fielding independent. He faces a Brewers lineup that leads the league in scoring since the All-Star break at 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.8)
9:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish has struggled to a 5.51 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings, giving up at least three runs in four of his past five starts. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen owns a 4.70 ERA with 1.4 home runs and three walks allowed per nine innings but is supported by a lineup that ranks fourth in MLB in run creation, averaging over 4.9 runs per game. The Diamondbacks bullpen, however, ranks 27th with a 4.82 ERA.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.4)
