MLB Picks Today:
MLB picks today, including Orioles vs. Yankees, Diamondbacks vs. Padres, and Royals vs. Athletics.
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Saturday, September 27.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:05 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler, in 13 starts, has been a strikeout artist with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He holds a 3.27 ERA, but also a 3.94 fielding independent pitching (FIP) with 1.1 home runs and 4.1 walks per nine innings. He faces an Orioles lineup that ranks second-worst in the American League in road run creation, scoring fewer than four runs per game. Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed at least four runs in four of his past five starts, owning a 4.54 ERA with 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings, 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, and a 5.21 FIP.
Pick: Yankees Run Line -1.5 +105 (Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -1.5 -119)
3:07 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Rays have been limiting their starters during the final week of the season, with Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz both going fewer than five innings in recent outings. Joe Boyle may see the same treatment. Boyle owns a 4.40 ERA with 4.8 walks per nine innings, but his road ERA has ballooned to 8.15 with 2.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that leads the American League in scoring since the All-Star break at 5.3 runs per game. Toronto starter Trey Yesavage makes his third career start, having registered 11 strikeouts and five runs allowed over nine innings in his first two games. At the minor-league level this season, he posted a 3.12 ERA with 14.7 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 +145 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -1.5 +117 and Total 8.6)
4:05 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Rockies starter Kyle Freeland leads the National League in losses with 16. He owns a 5.00 ERA, allowing 10.9 hits per nine innings and 1.5 home runs per nine innings on the road. Giants starter Justin Verlander, despite only three wins this season, has pitched well at his advanced age. He carries a 3.88 ERA with 8.0 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed, with zero or one run allowed in four of his past five starts. He faces a Rockies lineup that ranks last in road scoring, averaging just 2.8 runs per game.
Picks: Giants Run Line -1.5 -110 and Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Giants -1.5 -148 and Total 7.9)
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox
White Sox starter Sean Burke has allowed three earned runs or fewer in nine straight starts. He has a 4.29 ERA but may be due for regression, carrying a 5.02 FIP with 4.3 walks and 1.5 home runs per nine innings. On the road, his ERA rises to 4.78. Nationals starter Jake Irvin owns a 5.69 ERA with 1.9 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen with the league’s worst ERA at 5.61.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2)
6:05 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starter Ranger Suárez has been steady with a 3.12 ERA, allowing just 0.8 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings. However, he has been less effective at home (3.39 ERA) and since the All-Star break (4.28 ERA). Twins starter Mick Abel, who began the year in the Phillies organization, has struggled between both clubs with a 7.36 ERA, allowing 2.2 home runs and 4.1 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA at 4.64. The Phillies offense, meanwhile, is second in MLB in home scoring at 5.5 runs per game.
Picks: Phillies Run Line -1.5 +105 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -1.5 -116 and Total 8.8)
8:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Diamondbacks starter Eduardo Rodríguez has pitched better lately, allowing zero or one run in four of his past five starts. Still, he owns a 4.91 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings and is backed by a bullpen ranked 27th in ERA at 4.82. The Padres bullpen ranks first with a 3.05 ERA. Starter Michael King holds a 3.57 ERA and appears healthy again, allowing no runs in five innings in his last outing. At home, he has been excellent with a 2.57 ERA and only one home run per nine innings allowed.
Picks: Padres Moneyline -140 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -162 and Total 7.9)
10:05 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics
Athletics starter Luis Morales has been outstanding since his call-up, allowing three runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts. He owns a 3.07 ERA and has walked two or fewer in seven straight outings. Royals starter Michael Wacha, on the other hand, has struggled, giving up three or more runs in four of his last five starts. He has a 4.00 ERA but a 3.69 FIP with low damage control, issuing only 0.8 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a lineup that ranks 26th in scoring at four runs per game and a bullpen ranked seventh in ERA at 3.63.
Picks: Athletics Moneyline -118 and Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -128 and Total 9.3)
