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Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Marlins vs. Cubs (-1.5 +105). Greg’s Run Line Cubs -1.5 -123).
The Miami Marlins rank last in the league with 3.3 runs per game while the Cubs lead the National League in batting average with .269. The pitching matchup is also lopsided. Bryan Hoeing enters the game with a career 9.70 ERA in 10 MLB pitching appearances while Drew Smyly has a 1.48 ERA in his last five starts with a 6.5 strikeout-to-walk rate in that span.
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Total 9.5. Greg’s Total 8.4.
The Nationals are last in the league in home runs and score 3.6 runs per game—28th out of 30 MLB teams. MacKenzie Gore is racking up 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.77 ERA, and five of his six starts have gone under the total. He has allowed three runs or fewer in five of them.
Athletics vs. Royals Total 10. Greg’s Total 8.7.
While these starting pitchers both have ERAs above 7.00 and both bullpens are in the bottom four of the league in ERA, both teams are also in the bottom seven of batting average. Royals starter Brady Singer is coming off a 2022 season in which the team posted a 12-4 record from July through September in Singer’s final 16 starts with a 2.63 ERA and 2.3 walks per nine innings in those starts.
White Sox vs. Reds (-125). Greg’s Line Reds -145.
The White Sox have Tim Anderson back in the lineup, but also still have a bullpen that is 29th in ERA. White Sox starting pitcher Mike Clevinger has a 4.60 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 4.6 walks per nine innings, carrying a 5.55 FIP against a Reds team averaging 5.1 runs per game at home.
