Sunday Night Baseball: Guardians vs. Braves
For the second time in three weeks, the Cleveland Guardians are in the Sunday Night Baseball spotlight, this time against the Atlanta Braves. NBC will join Peacock with coverage of this one, meaning a national audience will be treated to the best in the business on the call with Jason Benetti.
He’ll get to sing the praises of Chris Sale, while also talking about Cleveland’s No. 1 starter Tanner Bibee, who has not really pitched like one thus far. With Sale on the bump for this Guardians vs. Braves clash, the home team is a big favorite to win the rubber match of the series.
See how others are wagering on the game with our VSiN MLB Betting Splits.
How to Watch Guardians vs. Braves
Where: NBC/Peacock
When: Sunday April 12, 7:20 p.m. ET
Guardians vs. Braves MLB Odds
Atlanta Braves -194 // Cleveland Guardians +159
Total: 7 (-118/-102)
Guardians vs. Braves Game Preview
Cleveland has not lost a series yet this season, splitting the opening four-game set with the Mariners before taking two out of three from the Dodgers, Cubs, and Royals. They have an uphill climb to keep that streak alive against Sale, who has a 3.94 ERA with a 3.92 xERA and a 5.06 FIP over his 16 innings of work thus far. In his three starts, he’s allowed three homers, which is partially why his ERA is so high. He’s also hit three batters, making his 16/5 K/BB ratio look a tad worse by extension.
Sale has only allowed nine hits to 63 batters, but the homers have played a role. He allowed just a solo home run two starts ago against the A’s after six shutout frames in his season debut against the Royals. But, last time out, Sale allowed six runs on five hits, including two homers, to the Angels. He’s been a tad unlucky in that sense, as he’s only allowed a 33.3% Hard Hit%, but there are three Barrels in the mix and all of them have left the yard.
He only allowed 11 homers in 125.2 innings in 2025 and just nine homers in 177.2 innings in 2024, so it seems likely that his 20% HR/FB% will regress to the mean pretty quickly. His velocity and pitch mix both look similar to previous seasons and his Stuff+ metrics continue to be strong as he ages, so an increase in sample size should move all of his numbers towards career norms.
Bibee has had long ball problems as well, as he enters with a 3.29 ERA, but a 4.73 xERA and a 5.02 FIP over 13.2 innings of work. He has not been able to work deep into games, recording 15, 12, and 14 outs over his first three starts, posting a 14/5 K/BB ratio in that span. He’s allowed a ton of hard contact, hence the high xERA, with a 56.4% Hard Hit% and a 15.4% Barrel%. It has been a command issue for Bibee, whose velocity and pitch mix are in line with previous seasons, but he has allowed a lot of violent contact.
His SwStr% is up to 13.4% this season, which would be a career-best and his Z-Contact% is just 77.9%, which is usually a pretty good indicator of the quality of stuff. When he’s made mistakes, though, guys have hit the ball hard. He’s extremely fortunate to have a .245 BA against and a .278 BABIP against when Statcast has him down for a .268 xBA against. He currently ranks in the bottom 4% in average exit velo, bottom 12% in Barrel%, and bottom 7% in Hard Hit%. As a team, the Braves enter the day just 24th in Hard Hit% at 37.1%, but third in Barrel% at 10.7%.
Righties have actually made the best contact quality off of Bibee, despite not hitting any of the homers he has allowed. Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Michael Harris II, and Drake Baldwin all have at least seven Barrels on the season if you’re looking for any HR props.
Cleveland actually has a top-10 offense in the early going with a 103 wRC+, but that comes with just a .219/.313/.365 slash with a .313 wOBA. Their .330 xwOBA is actually seventh, so they’ve had some hard contact with little to show for it, both a byproduct of the weather and some bad luck.
The Braves are third in xwOBA at .346 and fourth in actual wOBA at .342, sitting fourth in wRC+ with a .258/.328/.432 slash.
From a bullpen standpoint, both relief corps are fresh and ready to go. The Guardians haven’t had a reliever throw consecutive games since Tuesday/Wednesday and closer Cade Smith hasn’t pitched since Tuesday. Four pitchers have worked back-to-back days for the Braves, but none of them are high-leverage options and the expectation is that Sale will give them some length. I doubt Bibee will for Cleveland.
Guardians vs. Braves Prediction
The -194 on Atlanta strikes me as a little steep, especially in a game with a total of 7. That said, I really, really like Bibee Under 17.5 Outs Recorded at -109. Even though he’s only allowed five runs this season, the underlying metrics are bad and Stephen Vogt has had an early hook on him at 78, 74, and 87 pitches because he was extremely terrible the third time through the order last season (6.50 ERA, .485 SLG against).
Along those same lines, while this game is projected to be low-scoring, I’ll take the plus-money shot on Braves 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs at +114, with Bibee’s home run problem as a big factor, where a two-run shot or a three-run shot are possible at any time.
Picks: Tanner Bibee (CLE) Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-109); Braves 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+114)
