Handicapping This Weekend’s MLB Series Using Early-Season Team Tendencies

Handicapping this weekend’s MLB series using early-season team tendencies:

Hopefully, you’ve become well-acquainted with our daily MLB Analytics Reports. They’ve become a fundamental part of your daily routine for handicapping the baseball action each day. They are loaded with all kinds of great system, trend, and rating analysis, including the very successful Bullpen System data that I have been writing about every Monday. While we will still have all that for each day this weekend, I thought I’d take some time to look at each of the 15 series from a more narrow focus, focusing on some of the early-season tendencies the teams have demonstrated. It is a huge weekend across the league, with a matchup between the Yankees and Dodgers, plus the return of a few injured stars highlighting the action. Let’s get right into it.

CINCINNATI (28-29) at CHICAGO CUBS (35-21)

The Cubs come into this weekend’s series red-hot, winning 12 of their last 15 games. They currently boast a three-game lead in the NL Central Division. Chicago has been dominant at home, going 18-8 this season so far for +5.91 units, a ROI of 22.7%. Included in that is a 9-1 record when playing as a home favorite of -170 or higher. However, the Reds boast a 15-12 record for +5.12 units when they have a lesser SM Bullpen Rating than their opponent, and they are currently on a 6-1 surge as an underdog.

MILWAUKEE (29-28) at PHILADELPHIA (36-20)

Milwaukee has lost seven straight games to the Phillies, including a 4-game sweep almost a year ago in Philadelphia. Interestingly, all seven of those games went Under the total. Today’s game boasts a double-digit total. As usual, the Phillies have been very good in front of the home folks in 2025, going 19-9 for +4.73 units. At the same time, the Brewers have been far less proficient on the road, owning a record of just 11-18 for -7.63 units. In the role of road dog, which Milwaukee figures to be in all three games, it is just 6-15 for -7.77 units, a ROI of -37%. Manager Pat Murphy’s team has leaned decisively Under the total this season too, 31-22 thus far.

COLORADO (9-47) at NY METS (34-22)

You name it, Colorado has been awful in it this season, tendency-wise. On the road, the Rockies have won just three times against 25 losses, losing -17.96 units for their backers. The Mets currently boast the league’s best home record at 21-7 for +8.26 units. That said, when laying -200 or more at home, they are 7-3 but for -0.26 units. Even a single loss in the three-game set will leave Mets’ backers in a losing position for the weekend based on 1-unit wagers. Perhaps of better interest might be the totals for the three games, as Colorado is 19-8 Under on the road, scoring just 2.4 RPG, while New York is 19-10 Under at home, allowing just 3.0 RPG.

SAN FRANCISCO (31-25) at MIAMI (22-32)

Once hot-hitting San Francisco’s bats have gone cold, scoring just 24 runs while going Under the total in 10 of their last 11 games. Somehow, the Giants still own a 5-6 record in that span. Don’t overreact to that Under trend too much, however, as Miami has been a mega-Over team at home the last season-plus, including 16-12 this year. The Marlins’ opponents score nearly 5.5 RPG in Miami. Like many teams this season, the Marlins have not been good as bigger underdogs, going 8-20 for -4.33 units when playing to line worse than +130.

WASHINGTON (26-30) at ARIZONA (27-29)

Arizona is a gargantuan favorite for some reason in game 1 of its weekend series with Washington, despite having won just once in its last eight games. It could have something to do with the Nationals being just 5-18 for -13 units in their last 23 tries in head-to-head play. That includes a four-game sweep in Phoenix last July. That said, Washington is playing some of its best baseball of the season right now, having won eight of its last 11 games, and the DBacks have been a disappointment at home in ’25, going 14-15 for -8.59 units, an ROI of -29.6%. Arizona is also just 2-2 as a -200 level favorite or higher, producing -4.73 units of loss.

PITTSBURGH (21-36) at SAN DIEGO (31-23)

The Pirates travel to San Diego off their best two-game offensive surge of the season, having scored 19 runs in two wins at Arizona. However, overall, the road has been a struggle for Pittsburgh, 8-20 for -8.95 units. San Diego won its first 11 games at home to open the 2025 season, but they are 7-9 there since. The Padres have been superb against fellow National League teams this season, going 21-6 for +13.52 units, an ROI of better than 50%. It is in interleague play where they have struggled.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (18-38) at BALTIMORE (19-36)

Typically, a team desperate for a rebound-type series in MLB would salivate at the chance of hosting the White Sox. The Orioles are, in fact, a desperate team right now, already sitting 16 games back of the Yankees in the AL East Division. However, backing Baltimore right now in any of the three games versus the Sox in what figure to be very highly priced games would be considered betting suicide. The O’s are an ugly 5-14 for -15.42 units as favorites of -125 or more this season, losing -81.2% ROI. At least interim Manager Tony Mansolino seems to have done some pre-planning for this three-game set, as he will be going with three right handed starting pitchers, and that has been an Achilles’ Heel for Chicago in 2025. The Sox are just 12-29 for -10.16 units while scoring just 3.3 RPG in that scenario so far.

ATHLETICS (23-34) at TORONTO (28-28)

Once sitting at 22-20 and in the thick of the AL West race, the Athletics have hit a brick wall, going just 1-14 in their last 15 games. The biggest culprit has been their bullpen, as that group has a brutal ERA of 8.79 during the lengthy skid. They have dropped to #30 in my bullpen rankings at this point. Of course, having pitched nearly 4 innings per game during that stretch, the relief corps has been taxed by a lack of starting pitching as well. Little to nothing has gone right. The Athletics started a four-game set in Toronto on Thursday by losing 12-0. That said, they are still producing positive units on the road in 2025, 14-15 for +0.93 units. The Jays have been quite effective in the favorite role this season, 12-6 for +3.66 units to date.

LA ANGELS (25-30) at CLEVELAND (30-25)

The topsy-turvy Angels welcome back Mike Trout to the lineup this weekend and are looking to stop a five-game losing skid. Ironically, these losing ways immediately followed up what was an eight-game winning streak for the Halos. During those eight games, the Angels scored 7.6 RPG. Since then, they have put up a total of five. Perhaps Trout’s return can help get that turned around. They won’t be doing any favors in terms of their pitching alignment for this weekend, as they are throwing three right-handers. The Guardians boast a 27-17 record for +10.38 units versus such starters in 2025. Cleveland has also won eight of its last nine versus Los Angeles heading into Friday’s series opener.

DETROIT (37-20) at KANSAS CITY (30-27)

The league’s best team right now in terms of record, Detroit, opens a weekend set at rival Kansas City on Friday. If you had to read that sentence twice to believe it, you’re not alone. The Tigers’ .649 winning percentage is currently #1 in baseball. However, they have struggled lately against the Royals, going just 1-8 in their last nine games, including a three-game sweep in KC in their last visit about a year ago. Detroit has been unusually good in the road favorite role so far this season, going 8-2 for +5.61 units, a role they figure to be in for at least the Friday and Saturday games. The Royals head into the set with a bullpen rating deficit of 15 to 17. No worries though, they are on a 12-7 surge for +9.74 units in their last 19 games when on the short end of that stick.

TAMPA BAY (29-27) at HOUSTON (30-26)

Tampa Bay has become one of the hottest teams in the league as it continues a four-game set versus the Astros on Friday. The Rays are on a 13-6 surge, having scored 7 runs or more six times in the stretch. They have done tremendous work as an underdog throughout, going 10-5 for +8.86 units, one win, of course, coming in a 13-3 decision Thursday night in Houston. They figure to be in that role in all three remaining weekend tilts. The Astros have been solid at home once again, going 20-11 for +6.25 units. They are also on a 13-8 run for +6.34 run currently when boasting the better SM Bullpen Rating over their opponent.

MINNESOTA (30-25) at SEATTLE (30-25)

After a red-hot stretch for most of the month of May, the Twins have cooled a bit, winning one of their last four games. As they travel to Seattle on Friday night to start a three-game set, they are expecting a nice boost injected back into their lineup with the return of CF Byron Buxton. Speaking of their lineup, it’s been like night & day in terms of hitting at home and on the road this season. In an 18-8 start in the Twin Cities, they are scoring 4.4 runs per game. On the road, however, it has been a different story, just 3.5 RPG while going 12-17 for -5.94 units. Seattle continues to lead the AL West, but by the slightest of margins, ½ game. The Mariners are in the midst of a 2-5 slide, having scored three runs or fewer in all five losses. Of note on the totals for the weekend, something has to give, as Minnesota is 16-8 Under on the road so far in 2025, while Seattle is 16-9 Over at home.

BOSTON (27-31) at ATLANTA (26-29)

The return of Ronald Acuna this week to the Braves lineup hasn’t proven to be the spark the team hoped it would be, as they have gone just 2-4 since and have put up just 4.0 RPG. Overall, they are at just 4.2 RPG for the season, and it’s inarguable that this offense is underachieving. That said, they have still made life tough for opponents at home, going 16-9 to date, for +1.89 units. For this weekend, they will welcome in a struggling Red Sox team that has lost five straight games. The injury to Alex Bregman has definitely hurt the Sox, as they have scored just 2.0 RPG during the skid. With neither team firing on all cylinders offensively, Atlanta showing a 15-7 Under mark at home, and Friday’s game boasting a lofty 9.5 number, perhaps a totals wager is the way to go.

ST LOUIS (32-24) at TEXAS (27-30)

There is no team in baseball that has benefitted Under bettors more than the Texas Rangers so far in 2025, as they show a totals record of 39-17 Under heading into their weekend interleague series with St Louis. The Texas offense has been an utter disappointment, putting up just 3.2 RPG. That said, they have gotten tremendous pitching, particularly at home, where they are allowing just 2.7 RPG as a staff. Something to be concerned about this weekend for Texas, facing home dog roles on both Friday and Saturday, this team is just 2-6 for -3.9 units in that scenario in ’25.

NY YANKEES (35-20) at LA DODGERS (34-22)

The crown jewel series for the weekend finds World Series favorites the Yankees and Dodgers squaring off in Los Angeles. Both teams have been dynamic offensively to start the season, each producing over 5.5 RPG. Los Angeles has needed most of it, as the rotation is in shambles from injury, and the Friday/Saturday starters in particular (Gonsolin/Knack) figure to get well-tested. With the Yankees showing as about -120 favorites on Friday behind Max Fried, it should be noted that the last time the Dodgers were a home underdog was August 6^th of last season. They are 19-8 and scoring 6.1 RPG at home overall in ’25. That has produced just +0.86 units, however. One other thing to consider as New York throws Fried and another LH starter on Sunday, LA is just 7-10 versus lefties this season for -9.28 units. One of the bigger edges the Yankees will enjoy will be from their bullpen, which has performed far better than that of the Dodgers lately. Along those lines, in their last 26 games boasting a better SM Bullpen Rating than the opponent, they have gone 18-8 for +4.83 units.