Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction:
The Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles enter the playoffs having had their issues to end the regular season. Both have a record below .500 since August 1, and both look to their aces in Game One of this best-of-three series in Baltimore.
Cole Ragans gets the start for the Kansas City Royals. This season, Ragans leads qualifying American League starting pitchers with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings to go with a 3.14 ERA. But the fielding independent shows he’s been even more dominant with a 2.99 FIP.
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Ragans has been even more dominant on the road with a 2.87 ERA, while allowing just 0.7 home runs per nine innings. He is backed up by what has been the better bullpen in this matchup down the stretch.
Since July 1, the Kansas City Royals are 14th in the league with a 3.98 ERA in their bullpen, while the Orioles are 26th with a 4.93 ERA.
Baltimore turns to their big offseason acquisition, Corbin Burnes, to make the start on the mound. Overall, Burnes has a 2.92 ERA, but the numbers beyond his ERA show he hasn’t been as dominant this season.
Burnes’ 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings are his lowest since his rookie season in 2018 season. He has 3.55 fielding independent.
Regression set in for Burnes towards the end of the regular season. He posted a 4.04 ERA with over 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed in his 10 starts since August began, with the Orioles going 5-5 in those starts.
While the Orioles are second in the American League with 4.85 runs per game, they see an offensive dip at home with only 4.6 runs per game, compared to nearly 5.1 runs per game on the road.
The Kansas City Royals’ 4.3 runs per game ranks 16th. Burnes enters, having had recent issues while being backed by a bullpen that has been one of the worst in baseball recently. This will give Ragans the support he needs to get the Royals the win.
MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals +136
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