September started Thursday and typically, in the baseball handicapping world, it represents a fundamental shift in how to attack the game. The date itself might just be symbolic, but the changing of the calendar represents a change in the mindset of players, fans and those setting the odds. It’s time for high stakes baseball, where the cream rises to the crop, the pretenders out themselves as such, and the point where teams that have realized their seasons as failures to pack it in. If you’re a daily baseball bettor, are you ready? After reading this piece, hopefully you will be, as you will see that there are certain concepts that have thrived of late, as well as certain teams that have played much better than others in the season’s final month over the last three years.
In putting together this “final month” of the regular season study, I built myself a database of regular season games dated Sept. 1 and later over the last three seasons. For each team, this represented around 80 games, or the equivalent of what would be a half of a typical regular season. The won-lost records were all over the map for the 30 teams, as were the situations they were playing in and the lines accompanying their games. You’ll see below that I’ve tried to make some sense of each team’s late season performance for you. I’ve also uncovered some betting systems that should help you build your bankroll over the next five weeks or so.
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Late season baseball betting system #1: Despite heavy overpricing by oddsmakers, big favorites have produced big profits for bettors over the last three years in September/October regular season games, with favorites (HOME or ROAD) of -240 or higher going 120-35 (77.4%) for %plussign% 16.95 units and a ROI of 10.9%.
Late season baseball betting system #2: The most vulnerable favorites to back in late season games over the last three years have been smaller road favorites. Teams favored by -235 or less on the road in September/October regular season games since 2019 have gone 262-211 (55.4%) outright but have netted -40.6 units for their backers, a ROI of -8.6%.
Late season baseball betting system #3: The best teams in the league have been great road favorites in late season games. Those teams winning 62.5% of their games or more have gone 52-26 (66.7%) in September/October regular season games over the last three years when playing as road chalk. This has produced %plussign% 8.3 units of profit and a ROI of 10.6%. As of press time, the Astros, Mets, and Dodgers were all above that win threshold.
Late season baseball betting system #4: Familiarity has been a big part of big favorite success. Teams favored by -240 or higher in divisional September/October regular season games over the last three years have gone 86-24 (78.2%) for %plussign% 15.65 units and a ROI of 14.2%.
Late season baseball betting system #5: Unfamiliarity has meant profits for bigger underdogs. Teams playing as %plussign% 140 or higher underdogs in September/October games against non-divisional foes over the last three years have gone just 108-162 (40%) but have produced %plussign% 23.14 units of profit for a ROI of 8.6%.
When thinking about the power of these systems, you need to understand that the average baseball wager in the 2,454 sample games of this data set have produced an ROI of -2.7%, so comparing the returns on the systems to that shows you the amount of advantage these fundamental betting concepts provide.
Now, here’s a look at the September/October regular season game performance records over the last three years for the league’s 32 teams, sorted by overall ROI during that stretch.
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LA DODGERS
Overall Record: 57-20 (74.0%), %plussign% 17.75 units – ROI: 23.1% (#1 of 30)
at Home: 30-8 (78.9%), %plussign% 11.15 units – ROI: 29.3% (#2 of 30)
on Road: 27-12 (69.2%), %plussign% 6.6 units – ROI: 16.9% (#7 of 30)
as Favorite: 57-19 (75.0%), %plussign% 18.75 units – ROI: 24.7% (#3 of 30)
as Underdog: 0-1 (0.0%), -1 units – ROI: -100.0% (#30 of 30)
vs. Division foes: 38-12 (76.0%), %plussign% 10.9 units – ROI: 21.8% (#4 of 30)
vs. Non-Div. League: 10-4 (71.4%), %plussign% 4.55 units – ROI: 32.5% (#4 of 30)
Interleague: 9-4 (69.2%), %plussign% 2.3 units – ROI: 17.7% (#9 of 30)
vs. team w/ worse record: 56-18 (75.7%), %plussign% 19.7 units – ROI: 26.6% (#3 of 30)
vs. team w/ better record: 1-2 (33.3%), -1.95 units – ROI: -65.0% (#30 of 30)
coming off SU Win: 40-16 (71.4%), %plussign% 9 units – ROI: 16.1% (#4 of 30)
coming off SU Loss: 17-4 (81.0%), %plussign% 8.75 units – ROI: 41.7% (#1 of 30)
Steve's thoughts for 2022: The Dodgers have cruised in each of the last three seasons in the final month, and there’s no reason to suspect otherwise this year. I do have some concerns as to whether or not their top-line pitchers are good enough to win a pennant in the deep NL playoffs, but that’s for later.
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ST. LOUIS
Overall Record: 56-36 (60.9%), %plussign% 17.15 units – ROI: 18.6% (#2 of 30)
at Home: 25-19 (56.8%), %plussign% 1.25 units – ROI: 2.8% (#11 of 30)
on Road: 31-17 (64.6%), %plussign% 15.9 units – ROI: 33.1% (#1 of 30)
as Favorite: 28-21 (57.1%), -4.65 units – ROI: -9.5% (#17 of 30)
as Underdog: 28-15 (65.1%), %plussign% 21.8 units – ROI: 50.7% (#1 of 30)
vs. Division foes: 38-24 (61.3%), %plussign% 13.1 units – ROI: 21.1% (#5 of 30)
vs. Non-Div. League: 15-8 (65.2%), %plussign% 6.75 units – ROI: 29.3% (#6 of 30)
Interleague: 3-4 (42.9%), -2.7 units – ROI: -38.6% (#27 of 30)
vs. team w/ worse record: 42-28 (60.0%), %plussign% 7.4 units – ROI: 10.6% (#10 of 30)
vs. team w/ better record: 14-8 (63.6%), %plussign% 9.75 units – ROI: 44.3% (#2 of 30)
coming off SU Win: 36-21 (63.2%), %plussign% 13.45 units – ROI: 23.6% (#1 of 30)
coming off SU Loss: 20-15 (57.1%), %plussign% 3.7 units – ROI: 10.6% (#12 of 30)
Steve's thoughts for 2022: Since sitting at 54-48 after 102 games, the Cardinals have erupted to take control of the NL Central Division. With the way they have rallied at the end of the season in the last three years, there’s little reason to suspect that they will yield the lead. Note their particularly strong performance in the late season underdog role.
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TORONTO
Overall Record: 48-35 (57.8%), %plussign% 14.55 units – ROI: 17.5% (#3 of 30)
at Home: 29-15 (65.9%), %plussign% 17.15 units – ROI: 39.0% (#1 of 30)
on Road: 19-20 (48.7%), -2.6 units – ROI: -6.7% (#15 of 30)
as Favorite: 31-15 (67.4%), %plussign% 9.4 units – ROI: 20.4% (#6 of 30)
as Underdog: 17-20 (45.9%), %plussign% 5.15 units – ROI: 13.9% (#5 of 30)
vs. Division foes: 37-24 (60.7%), %plussign% 16.25 units – ROI: 26.6% (#2 of 30)
vs. Non-Div. League: 7-4 (63.6%), %plussign% 1.15 units – ROI: 10.5% (#9 of 30)
Interleague: 4-7 (36.4%), -2.85 units – ROI: -25.9% (#23 of 30)
vs. team w/ worse record: 27-17 (61.4%), %plussign% 4.75 units – ROI: 10.8% (#9 of 30)
vs. team w/ better record: 21-18 (53.8%), %plussign% 9.8 units – ROI: 25.1% (#5 of 30)
coming off SU Win: 28-19 (59.6%), %plussign% 7.5 units – ROI: 16.0% (#5 of 30)
coming off SU Loss: 20-16 (55.6%), %plussign% 7.05 units – ROI: 19.6% (#5 of 30)
Steve's thoughts for 2022: I have to admit I was a bit surprised to see how effective Toronto has been at the conclusion of the last three seasons, particularly at home. The Blue Jays have been the league’s most profitable host in the final month. For 2022, they have just 14 of their final 33 games at home, however, and will have a fight on their hands for an AL wild-card spot if they aren’t better on the road than they have been.
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SEATTLE
Overall Record: 42-35 (54.5%), %plussign% 12.15 units – ROI: 15.8% (#4 of 30)
at Home: 22-18 (55.0%), %plussign% 5.35 units – ROI: 13.4% (#4 of 30)
on Road: 20-17 (54.1%), %plussign% 6.8 units – ROI: 18.4% (#6 of 30)
as Favorite: 18-8 (69.2%), %plussign% 6.7 units – ROI: 25.8% (#2 of 30)
as Underdog: 24-27 (47.1%), %plussign% 5.45 units – ROI: 10.7% (#6 of 30)
vs. Division foes: 24-17 (58.5%), %plussign% 11.45 units – ROI: 27.9% (#1 of 30)
vs. Non-Div. League: 6-6 (50.0%), -0.2 units – ROI: -1.7% (#14 of 30)
Interleague: 12-12 (50.0%), %plussign% 0.9 units – ROI: 3.8% (#11 of 30)
vs. team w/ worse record: 16-10 (61.5%), %plussign% 4.15 units – ROI: 16.0% (#8 of 30)
vs. team w/ better record: 26-25 (51.0%), %plussign% 8 units – ROI: 15.7% (#7 of 30)
coming off SU Win: 25-18 (58.1%), %plussign% 8.75 units – ROI: 20.3% (#2 of 30)
coming off SU Loss: 17-17 (50.0%), %plussign% 3.4 units – ROI: 10.0% (#13 of 30)
Steve's thoughts for 2022: We all remember the surge Seattle made a year ago to close the regular season, although it came up short of a playoff berth. The Mariners figure to be in better shape than that this year, with just eight of their final 32 games against teams with winning records. They will need to improve on the 54.5% winning percentage with that upcoming schedule to reach the postseason though.
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MINNESOTA
Overall Record: 49-32 (60.5%), %plussign% 11.67 units – ROI: 14.4% (#5 of 30)
at Home: 24-17 (58.5%), -1.45 units – ROI: -3.5% (#16 of 30)
on Road: 25-15 (62.5%), %plussign% 13.12 units – ROI: 32.8% (#2 of 30)
as Favorite: 33-17 (66.0%), %plussign% 4.95 units – ROI: 9.9% (#8 of 30)
as Underdog: 16-15 (51.6%), %plussign% 6.72 units – ROI: 21.7% (#4 of 30)
vs. Division foes: 36-17 (67.9%), %plussign% 12 units – ROI: 22.6% (#3 of 30)
vs. Non-Div. League: 6-8 (42.9%), %plussign% 1.12 units – ROI: 8.0% (#11 of 30)
Interleague: 7-7 (50.0%), -1.45 units – ROI: -10.4% (#18 of 30)
vs. team w/ worse record: 29-13 (69.0%), %plussign% 10.55 units – ROI: 25.1% (#5 of 30)
vs. team w/ better record: 20-19 (51.3%), %plussign% 1.12 units – ROI: 2.9% (#10 of 30)
coming off SU Win: 28-20 (58.3%), %plussign% 0.75 units – ROI: 1.6% (#10 of 30)
coming off SU Loss: 21-12 (63.6%), %plussign% 10.92 units – ROI: 33.1% (#2 of 30)
Steve's thoughts for 2022: Minnesota remains within striking distance of Cleveland in the AL Central and could benefit from the fact that they’ve been a far better late season team in recent years. The Twins have been particularly effective on the road and will face a key 5-game set at Cleveland on Sept. 16-19 that could determine the division champ and likely only playoff team.
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SAN FRANCISCO
Overall Record: 46-35 (56.8%), %plussign% 10.25 units – ROI: 12.7% (#6 of 30)
at Home: 25-20 (55.6%), -1.55 units – ROI: -3.4% (#15 of 30)
on Road: 21-15 (58.3%), %plussign% 11.8 units – ROI: 32.8% (#3 of 30)
as Favorite: 33-15 (68.8%), %plussign% 10.2 units – ROI: 21.3% (#5 of 30)
as Underdog: 13-20 (39.4%), %plussign% 0.05 units – ROI: 0.2% (#15 of 30)
vs. Division foes: 28-21 (57.1%), %plussign% 6.85 units – ROI: 14.0% (#6 of 30)
vs. Non-Div. League: 11-11 (50.0%), -2.65 units – ROI: -12.0% (#17 of 30)
Interleague: 7-3 (70.0%), %plussign% 6.05 units – ROI: 60.5% (#1 of 30)
vs. team w/ worse record: 37-17 (68.5%), %plussign% 13.15 units – ROI: 24.4% (#6 of 30)
vs. team w/ better record: 9-18 (33.3%), -2.9 units – ROI: -10.7% (#21 of 30)
