MLB Best Bets & Props: Expert picks for Sunday, July 30th

229
 

Best Bets on Today’s 15-Game MLB Schedule

The 2023 MLB season is fully in swing and VSiN has you covered with every way you can possibly bet on a baseball game. Normally, Adam Burke will have daily best bets to give you some ideas of what to back when it comes to moneylines, run lines and totals, while I focus on feeding you all player props. However, Adam is off on Sundays, so I’m tackling everything before we get back to our regularly scheduled programming tomorrow. Keep reading to find out how I’m betting three of the games on the MLB schedule for Sunday, July 30th. 

 

Top MLB Resources:

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on July 30

Here are our favorite MLB prop bets for Sunday, July 30th: 

Washington Nationals at New York Mets (-230, 8.5)

Oddly enough, the Over is 11-1 in games in which Trevor Williams starts when coming off a win over the last two seasons. And the average total runs scored in those games is 10.9 runs per game. That might seem a little random, but it really speaks to the fact that Williams rarely goes out and shuts down his opponents in back-to-back games — and he’s hardly coming off a great start to begin with. Overall, the righty is very hittable, as he’s 5-5 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP this season. The Mets also happened to score four runs on nine hits in just 5.0 innings when they faced Williams back on April 27th, and that game ended with 17 total runs scored.

The real question is whether the Nationals can get to Justin Verlander and help this Over out. Verlander has started to look like his old self recently, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nationals do a little damage against him. Verlander’s name is starting to come up in trade rumors, so it’s possible his focus won’t be there here.

Bet: Over 8.5 (-115)

Minnesota Twins (-170, 9.5) at Kansas City Royals

While the lowly Royals are in the unlikely position of going for a sweep against the Twins, I like the value on Kansas City to do the improbable and come away with a win today. For as solid as Kenta Maeda has been for Minnesota this year, the righty has been miserable when pitching during the day. He’s 1-4 with a 7.04 ERA in five afternoon starts this year, marking the third year in a row in which his day splits look a lot worse than his night splits.

Kansas City’s lineup has also been scorching hot over the weekend, as this team has scored 18 runs in this series thus far. Also, while Ryan Yarbrough has had his struggles this season, he does get the luxury of facing a Twins offense that has the second-lowest wRC+ in baseball against left-handed pitching. With that in mind, this might not be the easiest bet to make, but I do like Kansas City’s chances and think this is a great number.

Bet: Royals ML (+145)

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-135, 9)

Kyle Hendricks will be tasked with keeping Chicago’s eight-game winning streak alive, and the Cubs probably feel very good about that. Hendricks is a guy that can occasionally get lit up, but he seems to always be at his best in big spots. And with Chicago having a chance to earn a four-game sweep over St. Louis, while also continuing to climb the NL Central standings, this qualifies as one of those.

I’m not sure Hendricks will go out there and completely shut down this Cardinals lineup, but I do like his chances of coming away with four strikeouts. The righty has reached this mark in each of his last six starts. Hendricks isn’t a big swing-and-miss pitcher, but this number is very low, and it should be within reach as long as he doesn’t get chased early. Hendricks also happened to have six strikeouts the last time he faced the Cardinals in St. Louis.

Bet: Hendricks Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Did you know that you can parlay these three picks together at +756 odds? Try out our VSiN Parlay Calculator HERE!

VSiN MLB Links 

MLB Betting Splits

MLB Injury Report

MLB Team Power Ratings

MLB Odds

VSiN Daily Baseball Bets Podcast