MLB Best Bets and Props:
It’s another Sunday in MLB, which means you need to be extra careful when checking lineups and monitoring player news due to the unpredictable nature of getaway games. Almost every major league team plays during the afternoon, with the first pitch scheduled for 12:05 PM (ET) between the San Francisco Giants and the Cincinnati Reds. Below are two of my MLB best bets and props for Sunday, August 4, but price shop for the best odds available.
My name is Matt Williams, and I will be covering weekend MLB best bets and props all season long. Be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @MattWi77iams and join my Substack at MattWi77iams/Substack.
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Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves
1:35 pm ET
Over the last 30 days, the Braves sport the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball versus right-handed pitching (26%).
In addition, Atlanta posted a mere 6.3% walk rate during that same time frame. This is great news for Edward Cabrera, who sometimes tends to be wild and will be aided by a free-swinging team.
Cabrera is somewhat matchup-proof when it comes to straight strikeout metrics. The 26-year-old’s whiff rate this season is in the 91st percentile.
If the Marlins right-hander can pitch five innings on Sunday, he should be able to hit the over.
This prop currently sits at even money, but I fully expect this line to move and would play the Over up to -135
MLB Best Bet: Edward Cabrera Over 5.5 K (+100)
Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners
4:10 pm ET
I typically try to stay away from Outs props above 18, but in this case, I will make an exception.
Logan Gilbert has hit Over 18.5 Outs in seven of his last 10 outings, going at least 20 Outs in each instance. The Mariners ace boasts a 25.1% strikeout rate this season with a 0.91 WHIP and .198 batting average against.
On Sunday, Gilbert will take on a struggling Phillies lineup that is batting .223 over the last 30 days with a .286 on-base percentage and .662 OPS.
At the time of writing this, Logan’s Over 18.5 Outs prop is available at an incredible +145, but I would happily take it down to +115.
MLB Best Bet: Logan Gilbert o18.5 Outs (+145)
