MLB Best Bets Today April 10
A 4-4-7 setup is what we’ll have for the weekend, as there are four games in each league and seven interleague matchups, including some very interesting litmus tests for teams off to good starts and those that are struggling a little bit. The Pirates and Cubs play today’s lone day game, as the rest of the slate doesn’t get going until first pitch in Philly between the Diamondbacks and Phillies or the first pitch in Detroit between the Marlins and Tigers at 6:40 p.m. ET.
It will be a busy weekend of baseball and temperatures are a little bit warmer for most of the outdoor games with no threat of a postponement anywhere, so maybe we’ll get some fun and exciting matchups.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are available to everybody now, but will soon be for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
That’s a lot of coverage and we’ll be doing it all season long. We’re happy to have you along for the ride.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 10:
Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers (-149, 8.5)
6:40 p.m. ET
The Tigers are not having the start that they envisioned, as evidenced by the sweep that they just suffered at the hands of the Twins. They’ll get a familiar foe today in Chris Paddack, who was with the Twins for 3.5 seasons and actually finished out last season with them.
Paddack isn’t exactly off to a good start with an 8.31 ERA, 5.28 xERA, and a 5.57 FIP in 8.2 innings of work. He gave up eight runs in four innings in his 2026 debut against the White Sox, but did strike out six over 21 batters. He struck out four Yankees out of 22 batters in 4.2 innings in a relief effort last time out. Pete Fairbanks opened that game because his wife was due to give birth.
While Paddack’s results haven’t been good, he is trying to navigate a revamped arsenal, as he’s dramatically cut back on his four-seam fastball usage to throw more cutters, sliders, and changeups. Those are all pitches set to induce more swing and miss. He has a 35.9% Chase Rate thus far and a 15% SwStr%. Paddack ranks in the 84th percentile in Chase Rate and 80th percentile in Whiff% thus far.
The Tigers have struck out in 24.3% of their plate appearances thus far and have walked in 10.5% of them. That’s likely to run Paddack’s pitch count up, which makes sense given the heavy juice on Under 15.5 Outs Recorded. But, I’m looking at his strikeout prop here and like Over 3.5 Strikeouts, even with the -161 price tag at time of writing (which moved up 19 cents while handicapping the rest of the card). Paddack should pitch deep enough into the game to generate enough swings and misses to have a crack at this and the Tigers are fourth in Pitches Per Plate Appearance, so I’d imagine that he’ll get a lot of two-strike counts and opportunities for Whiffs.
Our OptaAI MLB Player Prop Projections have Paddack with 4.63 strikeouts.
Pick: Chris Paddack (MIA) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-161), 5+ Strikeouts (+137)
Athletics at New York Mets (-156, 8)
7:10 p.m. ET
The A’s simply switched hotels as they now play in Queens after playing in the Bronx to start the week. They’ll send J.T. Ginn to the hill against the Mets here, who will counter with Clay Holmes. Holmes is off to an excellent start with just two runs allowed on seven hits in 12.2 innings of work. He’s struck out nine, walked five, and has a 65.7% GB% with just a .176 BABIP against.
There are some negative regression signs in the profile with that .176 BABIP, a 94.3% LOB%, and just an 18.4% K%. It remains to be seen if the A’s can deliver that, though “regression” doesn’t take much at this stage of the game, especially with a guy who has a 1.42 ERA. He has a 3.32 xERA, 3.94 FIP, and 3.70 xFIP.
I’m looking at the Under 17.5 Outs prop for Holmes here. He only completed six innings in nine of his 31 starts last season. While he threw seven innings last time out, the Mets scored five in the fifth to take a 6-0 lead and the Giants have been simply putrid on offense to this point. Holmes has the 14 K/BB in 49 plate appearances and has thrown 90 pitches in each start thus far. The strikeouts and walks could elevate his pitch count here.
With Wednesday’s light workload and just three relievers in action yesterday, the bullpen is rested for the Mets, so they don’t have to push Holmes too far. He had a 10.5% BB% the second time through the order and a 9.6% BB% with just a 13.3% K% the third time through the order last season, his first as a full-time starter. Early on, I expect them to be cautious with him. The Giants start was just a confluence of favorable conditions. That may not be the case today.
Our OptaAI MLB Player Prop Projections have Holmes with 15.61 outs.
Pick: Clay Holmes (NYM) Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-109)
San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles (-126, 8.5)
7:15 p.m. ET
The Giants have come east to take on the Orioles during this weekend set at Camden Yards. Landen Roupp gets the call for the visitors, as he’s looking to bounce back from allowing seven runs on seven hits over 4.2 innings of work against the Mets. He fell victim to a lot of bad luck in that start, as he only had a 33.3% Hard Hit% with an 86.7 mph average exit velo. He has a 4.22 ERA, but a 2.06 xERA and a 1.37 FIP over 44 batters faced this season.
Perhaps Roupp is taking the next step. He has a 63% GB% with a 14/3 K/BB ratio and he’s generating a lot more swing and miss and a lot more chase this season with a bit of a retooled arsenal. That being said, he still has a 90.6% Z-Contact% against and that’s a metric that is a pretty good indicator of stuff quality. Guys missing on pitches that they chase is one thing. Guys missing on pitches in the zone is another. Roupp only has a 14.2% CStr%. He’s throwing more cutters and changeups this season and the irony is that those are his two lowest-graded pitches by Stuff+.
Roupp’s first start came in San Diego and then he pitched at home. Last season, Roupp pitched to a 4.76 ERA on the road over 58.2 innings with 10 of his 11 homers allowed. He allowed a .279/.361/.458 slash with a .355 wOBA. He allowed 20 total runs over his first five road starts last season. This will be a big test taking on the Orioles away from home, especially with some decent hitting weather.
The Giants own a .207/.258/.303 slash with a 61 wRC+ against righties on the season. They’ve only walked 6.4% of the time and have only hit four homers in 314 plate appearances. On the whole, the Giants are batting .233/.283/.335 with a 78 wRC+ thus far. Shane Baz has had one good start and one “meh” start, as he allowed four runs on seven hits to the Twins over 5.1 innings in his first start as an Oriole, but then allowed just one run on four hits in 5.2 innings in his second effort.
Baz has only allowed a 31.3% Hard Hit% thus far over 32 batted ball events. He has a 4.09 ERA with a 3.14 xERA and a 2.88 FIP. Like Roupp, he’s not getting a lot of in-zone Whiffs, but does have a slightly higher SwStr% and is working through some arsenal changes.
The day off came at a really good time for Baltimore’s bullpen, as they worked a lot in the sweep of the White Sox. With a refreshed relief corps, the better offense, and I’d say the better starting pitcher, I’ll take a whack at this number.
Pick: Orioles -126
