MLB Best Bets Today April 13
A neat and tidy 10-pack of games gets the week going, as two-thirds of the league will take the field and 10 other teams will enjoy a day off. It’s a Monday without day games, except for the 1:10 p.m. PT wraparound series finale between the Astros and Mariners. Otherwise, action begins at 6:35 p.m. ET with the Diamondbacks and Orioles as one of our two interleague tilts of the night.
Of the 20 starting pitchers today, 18 of them are making their fourth starts of the season. We’re slowly, but surely getting some meaningful sample size for 2026. That said, it’s still important to look at game logs to see exactly what has happened and how the numbers have gotten to where they are. I also wouldn’t completely discredit 2025 just yet.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are available to everybody now, but will soon be for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
That’s a lot of coverage and we’ll be doing it all season long. We’re happy to have you along for the ride.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 13:
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees (-194, 9.5)
7:05 p.m. ET
Normally, I don’t like to play the run line on the home team. Not having to bat in the bottom of the ninth leaves the team with only eight chances to score runs and that makes it tough because the other team will hit nine times. Sometimes, though, a matchup just lends itself to trying to find more creative ways to bet it instead of laying a chalky moneyline price and that’s the situation here between the Angels and Yankees in my estimation.
It should be a terrific night for hitting in the Bronx with warm temps and a helping breeze. Will Warren has a 54.5% GB% on the season, posting a 3.07 ERA with a 3.58 xERA and a 4.03 FIP in his 14.2 innings of work. He’s allowed a couple homers across three starts, but he’s only surrendered a 4.5% Barrel% over 44 batted ball events. He posted a 10.8% Barrel% last season, so he’s making a concerted effort to keep the ball down and induce as many grounders as possible. Not only will that help with the high BB% he’s posted the last two seasons because of the possibility of double plays, but it will also help in this ballpark.
Credit to Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 43.8% GB% and has only allowed one homer this season, but I’m not really buying it. He’s allowed 11 runs on 20 hits in 14.1 innings anyway and has just a 25% Chase Rate. He’s always had a home run problem throughout his career and I don’t think that’s simply going to go away in his age-35 season.
This is also a road start in a tough venue for Kikuchi, who had a 5.04 ERA on the road last season compared to a 2.93 ERA at home. In terms of home/road splits, his slash line against was +37, +56, +72 on the road with a .354 wOBA against. Righties on the road hit .273/.362/.480 off of Kikuchi and hit 12 of the 24 homers that he allowed. In general, righties batted .264/.336/.445 with 23 of the 24 homers.
I’d presume we get six righties in the lineup today against Kikuchi, as Aaron Boone gets the chance to empty his bench and deploy his platoons.
There’s also a large bullpen discrepancy here, as the Yankees are sixth in ERA, second in xERA, and first in FIP, while the Angels are 19th, 10th, 19th, respectively. That should give the Yankees the chance to add on in this one, especially since trailing teams don’t deploy their best arms in those situations.
Pick: Yankees Run Line -1.5 (+102)
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves (-156, 8)
7:15 p.m. ET
NL East rivals come together at Truist Park with the Marlins on the road to take on the Braves. It was a fun night for Atlanta with a 13-1 drubbing of the Guardians to pick up another series victory and continue their offensive flexing for this season. These are actually two top-five offenses by wRC+ against RHP, as the Braves sit third and the Marlins are fifth.
Atlanta is slashing .275/.338/.463 against RHP after blowing up Tanner Bibee on Sunday. The Marlins are slashing .274/.342/.453 and you have to give them a lot of credit for hitting well at loanDepot Park thus far, which is often viewed as a pretty good pitcher’s park.
Eury Perez gets the ball for the Fish today, as he has a 5.06 ERA with a 5.02 xERA and a 6.20 FIP over three starts thus far. He’s allowed 11 runs on 13 hits in 16 innings of work, with nine of those runs earned and he’s got a major HR problem with four of those. He has allowed seven Barrels in 42 batted ball events and a 42.9% Hard Hit% in starts against the Rockies (at home), Yankees, and Reds. Currently, those offenses are 20th, 10th, and 27th against RHP in wOBA, so this is a step up in class for Perez and a road test on a seasonably warm night.
Grant Holmes goes tonight for the Braves and he’s building up quite a regression-worthy profile. He’s got a 2.55 ERA with a 3.23 xERA and a 4.39 FIP in his 17.2 innings of work. He has a .191 BABIP against with an 86.4% LOB% and his 19.7% K% and 11.3% BB% are not good indicators of future success. Holmes had a 45.4% GB% last season and now has a 32.7% GB%. It came to light last season that he was pitching with a damaged UCL, so the fact that his BB% is still high while his K% has dropped and he’s allowing more fly balls now are all worrisome to me.
Holmes’ fastball was -12.2 runs last season and he’s throwing it even more this season. So far, he’s had really positive results, but I’d look for that to regress to the mean, much like the rest of his metrics. He has a .228 wOBA against on the fastball with a .302 xwOBA, which is still a good number, but shows that he’s getting fortunate right now.
The Braves pitching staff has been stellar thus far with a 2.41 ERA, but they’re also running a .233 BABIP against that is the best in the league and a league-leading 79.6% LOB%. They have a 3.32 xERA and a 3.58 FIP, so some regression is likely here as a team, including Holmes. That also includes the bullpen, which boasts a 1.95 ERA with a 3.22 xERA. They have a .240 BABIP against and a 6.1% BB%, which both seem unsustainable.
The Marlins also have some reliever regression in the profile with a 2.81 ERA and a 4.13 xFIP, as they’ve only allowed a 1.8% HR/FB% and have the league’s fourth-highest BB% as a unit at 14.6%.
I’m looking for some runs in this one tonight and maybe for the series as a whole with two top-five offenses against RHP and a good amount of pitcher metrics ripe for a downturn.
Pick: Over 8 (-116)
Cleveland Guardians (-118, 8) at St. Louis Cardinals
7:45 p.m. ET
The Guardians had an unhappy 88-minute flight from Atlanta to St. Louis last night, as they got smoked 13-1 in the series finale, getting blown out on national TV for the second time on Sunday Night Baseball this season. But, a new series begins today and it will be de facto ace Gavin Williams on the bump. The Cardinals will counter with lefty Matthew Liberatore, as the Guardians get a fifth left-handed starter in six games.
With the time change, Cleveland got to St. Louis at 12:41 a.m. CT, so it wasn’t really that late of a night and they should be good to bounce back today. The betting market certainly thinks so, as we’ve seen a line move towards the Guardians here. That caught me a tad off-guard because Williams has a 2.04 ERA with a 3.61 xERA and a 4.16 FIP while running a .115 BABIP and a 92.6% LOB%. These are all very clear regression signs and often represent a profile that the market will bet against. They did not on the overnights and that tells me something about how the Cardinals and Liberatore are viewed.
Liberatore has major regression signs of his own, sporting a 3.38 ERA with a 5.54 xERA and a 6.08 FIP in his 16 innings of work. He has only struck out 10 of 71 batters faced and has walked five while allowing four homers. The big K% spike we saw in Spring Training was nothing more than a mirage and now he’s at the mercy of the defense behind him. With a .288 BABIP against, Liberatore, who has allowed 19 hits already, has a 97.8% LOB%. All four homers have been solo shots and he’s only allowed two hits in 18 PA with RISP.
Williams has much more overpowering stuff, even with the major BB% issues, so that should help Cleveland’s case here. Both bullpens have had their issues, as Cleveland has a 4.98 ERA and the Cardinals have a 5.31 ERA, but the difference is that the Guardians have a 3.91 xERA and the Cardinals have a 4.98 xERA, so Cleveland’s bullpen has actually gotten a little bit unlucky, especially on the HR front. St. Louis is 29th in K% and in the bottom 10 in BB% as a relief corps.
Generally speaking, the Cardinals don’t strike out opposing batters, so they always run the risk of having more scoring chances against and that’s one of many reasons why they have a -14 run differential.
Pick: Guardians -118
