MLB Best Bets Today April 6
Four teams will have Monday off, as we have 13 games spread across the country to start the second full week of the season. As of Sunday night, there were a couple of “Undecided” listed for starting pitchers, so it seems to be starting early this year with some rotation shuffling, injuries, six-man rotations, openers, and all of the things that we have had to contend with in the present-day landscape of the league.
The Cubs and Rays will get things going in the mid-afternoon, with every other game at 6:10 p.m. ET or later, so it’ll be a late night for those who maybe didn’t get much sleep over the weekend. *raises hand*
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are available to everybody now, but will soon be for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
That’s a lot of coverage and we’ll be doing it all season long. We’re happy to have you along for the ride.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 6:
Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays (-122, 8)
4:10 p.m. ET
Jameson Taillon and Shane McClanahan are the listed starters here, as the Cubs had a long day in Cleveland on Sunday thanks to a doubleheader on a chilly, damp day. The teams split the two games, with the Cubs winning 1-0 in the first game and falling 6-5 in the nightcap. The Rays, meanwhile, got done early in Minnesota and headed home. The Cubs got to Tampa much later.
Jameson Taillon probably left before the rest of the ballclub, so fatigue shouldn’t be a huge issue, but his pitching seems like it could be. Taillon threw 4.2 scoreless innings in his 2026 debut, but he only struck out three, walked four, and hit a batter. That was on the heels of an awful Spring Training with 26 runs allowed on 26 hits in 13.1 innings, including 10 home runs and nine walks.
He did only allow four hard-hit balls out of 13 batted ball events in that first start, but two of them were Barrels that happened to stay in the yard. He allowed a 54.7% Hard Hit% in the spring and a 20.8% Barrel% over 53 batted ball events. As much as I’m not a huge fan of the Rays offense, especially with all of the singles and the lack of SLG that they’ve had early in the season, Taillon doesn’t seem sharp right now and the Cubs have to be a big sluggish here coming off of the double dip.
Chicago’s bullpen actually didn’t end up with a super taxing workload in the doubleheader, so I’m mostly looking to pick on Taillon here and the fact that the fielders might be a step slower. I’ll also back McClanahan at friendly Tropicana Field and go 1st 5 Run line instead of the 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5, which is juiced out to -160. Mac had some control issues in his first start, but allowed zero Barrels, only four hard-hit balls, and had a 21.5% CStr% while falling behind in a lot of counts.
Pick: Rays 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+105)
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins (-131, 8)
6:40 p.m. ET
Brandon Williamson gets the call for the Reds as they take their road show from Arlington to Miami. The Marlins got back a good bit later from the Bronx than the Reds did from Texas, but at least they were able to sleep in their own beds.
The Marlins profile to me like a team that will be good against left-handed arms as the season goes along. They had seven righties in the lineup on Sunday against Max Fried and eight in the lineup on Saturday. They’ll look even better when Kyle Stowers makes his way back. Unfortunately, he remains sidelined, but this is a scrappy lineup that puts balls in play and gets aggressive on the bases. That’s a lot for a youngster like Williamson to control, as he gave up six runs on six hits in 4.2 innings to open the season. Three of the six hits were homers and he had three strikeouts against a couple of walks.
Williamson missed the entire 2025 season, but did enough in Spring Training to break camp with the Reds. He had a 3.77 ERA with a 4.75 xERA and a 6.59 FIP in 2024 over 14.1 innings at the MLB level. He had a 4.46 ERA with a 4.76 xERA and a 4.63 FIP in 2023 over 117 innings. Coming off of a lost season, he’s supposed to be a guy that can get outs at the MLB level? I’m not sure about that.
Janson Junk will go here for the Marlins. I played Under 14.5 outs with him in his first start and it got there, but he did throw the ball pretty well. He allowed two runs on five hits with five strikeouts and one walk. Junk had a poor spring and also battled some hiccups and issues throughout the six-week period, throwing just eight innings at the MLB level in camp.
Junk had a 4.17 ERA with a 4.44 xERA and a 3.14 FIP last season over 110 innings, as he was really held down by a 63.7% LOB%. His .301 BABIP against didn’t really help much either. The Reds offense hasn’t really done much of anything so far this season, so this should be a good matchup for him, pitching at home against an offense that doesn’t really hit a lot of balls hard. Hard contact did hurt Junk last season and hurt him in his 2026 debut with a 61.5% LOB%, but he has more upside than Williamson here in my opinion.
The Marlins offense is going to have ebbs and flows this season. The Reds offense is probably just bad across the board. Miami also does an excellent job of finding relief arms. I’m extremely skeptical of Cincy’s bullpen right now and as the season goes along.
Pick: Marlins -131
Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 8) at Boston Red Sox
6:45 p.m. ET
Brandon Woodruff and Brayan Bello are the listed starters here, as the Brewers and Red Sox open up an interleague set at Fenway Park. Bello has not been getting the ball down like he usually does, as he allowed four Barrels in his first start after allowing five Barrels in Spring Training. Bello has only allowed a Barrel% around 7% in each of his last three seasons, so this might be a bad sign going forward.
The Brewers are a scrappy offensive bunch and they’re off to a fine start this season, slashing .267/.369/.446 on the young year, even without Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn. Boston, despite a lot of promise coming into the season, is slashing just .226/.297/.372 and they’ve struck out nearly 28% of the time.
Milwaukee has been working a lot of counts this season so far, with a BB% of 13.5%. Bello walked three over 4.2 innings in his first start and has had some control problems at times during the course of his career. Even though his BB% is 8.4% for his career, he had a 12.5% BB% in March/April last season and had a 12% BB% in his first start this year. The cold weather doesn’t seem to be his friend.
Woodruff allowed a couple of solo homers in his 2026 debut, but threw the ball pretty well otherwise. He only allowed four hard-hit balls and struck out six with no walks over five innings. He also only allowed a 23.1% Pull% in that start.
I’ll take my chances here on the Brewers having the better offense at present going to Fenway Park, a place where offense is very much expected, plus Woodruff has thrown the ball well since returning from injury and Bello came into this season with regression signs from a low ERA and high xERA/FIP and didn’t really do much in that first start to ease those concerns.
Pick: Brewers -115
Philadelphia Phillies (-120, 8) at San Francisco Giants
9:45 p.m. PT
Another small favorite on the card for me here today, as the Phillies and Giants get together at Oracle Park. The Phillies played in Denver over the weekend against the Rockies, so they got to San Fran at a reasonable time. The Giants stayed at home, but they’re just 1-6 in the friendly confines and they’re off to a very slow start under first-year skipper Tony Vitello.
Speaking of slow starts, while Adrian Houser only allowed one earned run in his Giants debut, he allowed a 55% Hard Hit%, a continuation of the suspect command he had in the spring with a 52.6% Hard Hit% and a Barrel% north of 10%. He’s not a strikeout guy, so he has to try and produce as much margin for error as possible and he’s not going to do that by allowing so much hard contact.
Andrew Painter was excellent in his MLB debut, striking out eight batters over 5.1 innings of work with one run allowed on four hits. The longtime top prospect simply hasn’t been able to stay healthy, but the talent has always been there and maybe now he’s going to show it. Painter had a Chase Rate near 38% in that start against the Nationals. It’s not like the Giants are really swinging the bats well right now, so this may not even really be a step up in class.
As a team, the Giants are batting .208/.269/.292, while the Phillies come in slashing .227/.307/.383, which is well behind what you would expect from them, but there’s a ton of talent in that lineup and a lot of guys that are more likely to get it going than the hitters in the Giants lineup as far as I’m concerned.
None of Philly’s high-leverage guys were really called into action on Sunday, a silver lining to losing the series finale. Given that I think they should have a lead late, that’s definitely a positive thing for them.
Pick: Phillies -120
