MLB Best Bets Today March 30
We won’t have many Mondays like this, but all 30 teams are in action on March 30, as we have four games in each league and seven interleague matchups. Many will be disappointed to see that the earliest first pitch is 4:10 p.m. ET, so there won’t be any distractions from the work day. We also only have two home openers, as the Royals and Diamondbacks play in their own stadiums for the first time. Otherwise, the 13 other home teams were home to open the season.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are available to everybody now, but will soon be for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
That’s a lot of coverage and we’ll be doing it all season long. We’re happy to have you along for the ride.
Here are the MLB best bets today for March 30:
Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles (-126, 9.5)
6:35 p.m. ET
Jack Leiter will make his 36th career start and Chris Bassitt will make his 219th spread across five different teams, as he makes his Orioles debut. The reliable right-hander owns a 3.64 ERA with a 4.03 xERA and a 3.95 FIP in nearly 1,300 career innings and has made at least 30 starts in each of the last four seasons. He just turned 37 in February and did experience a velo decline last season, which didn’t seem to affect his performance much with a 3.96 ERA, 4.16 xERA, and a 4.01 FIP.
This matchup, though, appears to be a tough one for Bassitt. Lefties posted a .283/.352/.461 slash with a .352 wOBA against him last season in 419 plate appearances. For context, players who had around a .352 wOBA last season were Fernando Tatis Jr., Trea Turner, Josh Naylor, and Francisco Lindor. In other words, lefties hit Bassitt extremely well and there are some potent left-handed swingers on this Rangers roster, plus right-handed slugger Jake Burger is off to an excellent start.
So, I like this matchup for the Rangers, but I really like Leiter. K% and BB% are stats with some carryover from the spring and Leiter had a 27.3% K% with a 4.5% BB%. Leiter had a 10.4% BB% last season that held him back, but he still posted a 3.86 ERA with a 4.45 xERA and a 4.15 FIP. That said, Leiter had a 3.28 ERA with a 3.72 FIP in the second half, as he bumped his K% up to 26.3% and cut his BB% from 11% down to 9.7%. He allowed less pull-side contact in the second half and induced a lot more pop ups.
Basically, in what was essentially his rookie season he really started to learn how to pitch. Having Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi next to you in the dugout and watching your bullpens can’t hurt.
Both bullpens are in a bit of an awkward spot. The Orioles used six relievers yesterday, including 20 pitches from closer Ryan Helsley. The Rangers have used their three primary leverage guys in back-to-back days, but I do think that the additions of Jakob Junis, Tyler Alexander, and Jalen Beeks, who are all MLB vets, deepened that group quite a bit. Even though bullpens are volatile, the plus-money full-game price as opposed to -110 for the 1st 5 has me willing to take the risk.
Pick: Rangers +104
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-136, 8)
6:40 p.m. ET
Two very exciting young arms take the mound in Cincy today, as Braxton Ashcraft gets the call for the Buccos and Chase Burns goes for the Redlegs. Surprisingly, Braxton and Graham, the Reds reliever, are not related, despite sharing a fairly uncommon last name, so this is not a brother vs. brother game.
Anyway, to the important business, the 26-year-old Ashcraft has been a guy with a lot of helium in the fantasy and scouting communities coming into the season. He debuted last season and wound up throwing 69.2 innings at the MLB level in eight starts and 18 relief appearances with a 2.71 ERA, 3.45 xERA, and a 2.78 FIP. He’s long been a high-strikeout, low-walk guy in the minors, but health has held him back. Last season, he threw 48.1 innings in Triple-A Indianapolis and 69.2 innings at the MLB level. Prior to that, his highest innings output in a season was 73.
But, he’s a guy who had a great spring with a 2.03 ERA and a 2.68 FIP in 13.1 innings. He’s a Stuff+ darling, especially leaning more on a sinker like he did in Florida during Grapefruit League action. Personally, I’m among those really high on him for this season.
Burns posted a 4.57 ERA with a 3.46 xERA and a 2.65 FIP in his 43.1 innings at the MLB level over eight starts and five relief outings. He’ll likely be a four-and-fly guy today, as he only threw 17 innings across six Spring Training starts. He has a ton of deep counts, as over 44% of his plate appearances last season ended in strikeouts or walks with a 35.6% K% and an 8.5% BB%. He was at 31% and 9.9%, respectively, in the spring. Stuff+ loves him, too.
The Reds offense is off to a brutal start with a 28.2% K% and a .204/.299/.330 slash with an 83 wRC+. The Pirates slashed .246/.321/.390 with a 105 wRC+ in their series against the Mets. I do think that Pittsburgh ultimately finishes with better offensive numbers between the two teams, as Cincinnati’s offense looks awful on paper again this season. At least Pittsburgh tried to add a little bit. The Reds just reunited with Eugenio Suarez, who will definitely contribute to the K% spike.
Lastly, the Reds have used Emilio Pagan, Tony Santillan, and Pierce Johnson back-to-back days. I don’t like this bullpen much to begin with, but they could be a little short today. Dennis Santana might be an ICOE (in case of emergency) pitcher today after working three of the last four, but everybody else is available and I think this is the stronger relief corps.
Pick: Pirates +113
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs (-194. 9.5)
7:40 p.m. ET
An evening affair at Wrigley Field with the Angels and Cubs, as Ryan Johnson makes his first career MLB start. Johnson, a second-rounder out of Dallas Baptist in 2024, skipped the minor leagues and went straight to the bigs as a reliever, where he made 14 appearances with a 7.36 ERA, but a 3.54 xERA, as he got a bit unlucky. He went to High-A and made 12 starts with a 1.88 ERA and a 2.38 FIP over 57.1 innings and some dominant numbers.
After an offseason to hone his craft and an impressive Spring Training performance with a 3.05 ERA and a 2.93 FIP in 20.2 innings of work, he made the Angels rotation. He’s 6-foot-6 and a 25-degree arm angle, so he has some funk and deception to his arsenal and he’ll be a really interesting pitcher to watch and follow. We’ll see how he does today against a very talented Cubs lineup.
But, my handicap here is to go against Edward Cabrera by taking the Angels 1st 5 Over 1.5 at -140. First of all, the 1st 5 total is somewhere between 4.5 and 5.5 based on the Over vig at 4.5 and the Under vig at 5.5. The full-game total is 9.5. Maybe the Cubs will do it all themselves, but I’m skeptical.
Cabrera was awful in his last two Spring Training starts, allowing 13 runs on 14 hits in just 7.1 innings with a 7/3 K/BB ratio and five homers allowed. He threw the ball well early, but as he got stretched out, he struggled. He needed 74 pitches to get nine outs on Mar. 18 and 83 pitches to get 13 outs on Mar. 24. Cabrera allowed a 69.8% Hard Hit% and a 17% Barrel% in 53 batted ball events. He only had an 8.5% SwStr%.
As a guy with command, control, and pitch efficiency issues, the Cubs are trying to tweak his arsenal a bit, throwing more fastballs and changeups at the expense of his slider and curve. By Stuff+, his slider and curveball grade as his best pitches. Even if it was just a Spring Training experiment, I can’t imagine he has a great feel for those two pitches and he’s already a guy who is highly inconsistent from pitch to pitch.
If I was more confident in a projection of Johnson, I’d take a shot with the Angels at the big price. For now, Angels 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 is the play.
Pick: Angels 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-140)
Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers (-163, 8)
7:40 p.m. ET
Nick Martinez and Kyle Harrison make their first regular season starts in new uniforms here, as Martinez spent last season with the Reds as a swingman and Harrison was with the Giants and Red Sox. The Brewers have a knack for finding discarded pitchers and turning them into something special and they’ll hope that they can go the Quinn Priester route with Harrison, who was also with the Red Sox before heading to Milwaukee.
Spring Training stats definitely need to be put into the proper context, but when a guy is as bad as Martinez was, it’s hard to ignore. He allowed 22 runs on 29 hits in 13.2 innings with seven strikeouts against six walks. He allowed five homers. The Brewers took it to White Sox pitching in the opening series with a .337/.452/.519 slash and a 181 wRC+. They were a top-five offense in a lot of areas last season and I would expect some good returns here against Martinez, who had a 4.45 ERA with a 4.04 xERA and a 4.33 FIP last season over 165.2 innings for Cincy.
The Rays are (correctly) trying to get Martinez to leverage his changeup more, especially since it’s such a neutralizer against the platoon split and easily his best pitch by Stuff+. But, they also had him throwing more sinkers in the spring and he wasn’t getting the ball down enough with a 35% line drive rate against.
Long-term, I think Harrison will be pretty good. He allowed 13 runs on 17 hits in 14 innings in the spring and five of those 17 hits were homers. The Rays didn’t generate much power in St. Louis over the weekend, but batted .339 and racked up a ton of singles to score 23 runs. They only struck out 13.9% of the time. The Cardinals are going to pitch to a lot of contact this season, but Whiff avoidance is a good thing in any context.
Righties slashed .263/.326/.439 with a .331 wOBA against Harrison in 2024 and .255/.358/.362 with a .321 wOBA in 2025. Tampa Bay should have seven of them in the lineup today, with Jonathan Aranda and Cedric Mullins as the lefties.
The Rays had some bullpen issues in STL, as Griffin Jax blew two saves and Ian Seymour got shelled on Thursday. Kevin Cash is still trying to figure out what he has to work with it would seem and in what roles these guys can thrive. The Brewers bullpen is in a better spot, but I do think Harrison’s lack of efficiency could bring them in early.
I like the Over 8 here. Martinez and Harrison both had suspect springs. I love the Milwaukee offense and might as well hop on the Tampa offense while they’re overperforming a bit.
Pick: Over 8 (-105)
Boston Red Sox (-118, 8.5) at Houston Astros
8:10 p.m. ET
The Red Sox debut of Ranger Suarez will be today, as the southpaw draws the Astros at Daikin Park. Optimism and excitement are probably in shorter supply with Houston, as they’ll try Lance McCullers in the rotation again, at least until his inevitable injury. He had such a promising start to his career, but only made eight starts in 2022, missed all of 2023 and 2024, and posted a 6.51 ERA with a 5.33 xERA and a 5.77 FIP in 2025.
McCullers told reporters in Spring Training that he’s going to focus on trying to pitch to contact, which will help cut down his walks. Well, he only struck out five of the 32 batters he faced in the spring with four walks and allowed three runs on six hits. We’ll see how well that strategy works for him, but I certainly don’t love it against a Boston lineup that I’m extremely high on for this season.
Suarez is definitely more projectable than McCullers. The veteran southpaw has a 3.38 ERA with a 3.62 xERA and a 3.54 FIP in his 762 innings of work. He’s a heavy ground ball guy with solid K/BB rates. While I am definitely worried about the difference between the Phillies on the infield and the Red Sox, he’s going to keep the ball in the park and forces teams to string hits together, which is tough in today’s day and age. McCullers, meanwhile, allowed 10 HR in just 55.1 innings last season. Suarez allowed 14 in 157.1 innings.
While I definitely like the pitching matchup for Boston, I really like the bullpen matchup. The Astros are having a hard time without Josh Hader, as Bryan Abreu is basically unusable right now. Bryan King has worked three of the last four days. The Astros set their roster to have multiple long relief options to protect starters, but now they have leverage reliever issues.
I think Boston has the edge at the back end of this game, among other edges.
Pick: Red Sox -118
