MLB Best Bets Today October 13

It cannot be stated enough how impressive the win was on Sunday for Seattle in Game 1 of the Mariners vs. Blue Jays series. In a tough scheduling spot, with a struggling fourth starter, they won 3-1 and took away home-field advantage from one of the best and most prolific offensive teams in their home venue. Now they have the chance to really put the series in a chokehold as an underdog in Game 2.

On the other side, the Dodgers are laying a hefty road price in Milwaukee with Blake Snell on the bump, as the Brewers will roll with the Johnny Wholestaff approach. The Brewers were 3-0 at home in the NLDS against the Cubs and will look to keep that unbeaten record to draw first blood in the series.

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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 13:

Mariners at Blue Jays (-132, 7.5)

5:03 p.m. ET (FOX/FS1)

The pressure is on for rookie right-hander Trey Yesavage. With a 1-0 series lead last time out against the Yankees and run support in the second, third, and fourth innings, Yesavage threw 5.1 no-hit innings with 11 strikeouts against just one walk. Toronto scored 2, 3, and 6 runs in those aforementioned innings, so he had some long spells to sit, but got to work knowing that he had a nice, big cushion.

We’ll see if he gets the same with Seattle throwing Logan Gilbert, the veteran of 146 regular season starts and two more in the postseason. Gilbert was used in relief in Game 5 during that 15-inning marathon against the Tigers, but he’s going to get the nod here. He threw 34 pitches and worked two scoreless innings.

The big 6-foot-6 workhorse had never pitched in relief in an MLB game, so I’ll be curious to see how he comes out of it and how far he goes. The fact that Bryce Miller gave the Mariners six excellent innings yesterday to help preserve the bullpen a bit was huge. Gilbert had made 32 or 33 starts in each of the last three seasons before an injury limited him to 25 starts this season. But, long story short, he’s a big guy with a high workload and I imagine he’ll be just fine.

Yesavage’s best pitch is a wipeout splitter that comes from a very high arm slot. According to Statcast’s Pitch Type Value for hitters, Seattle was 20th at -4.0 batting runs against splitters. Yesavage only made three regular season starts for the Jays, but finds himself in high-leverage games now. His fastball is pretty hittable, as he allowed a .313 BA on the pitch in those three starts and his slider resulted in a lot of high exit velo batted balls. But, that splitter is a huge weapon and one he’ll rely on.

Gilbert also throws a splitter, but Toronto was +11.5 batting runs to lead the league per Statcast against that pitch. Gilbert’s also a very heavy slider usage guy and the Blue Jays were sixth at +7.9 batting runs against that pitch. Gilbert went six innings with one run allowed against the Tigers last round, but Detroit was a bottom-10 offense against sliders. The Blue Jays should be a tougher matchup.

Five relievers worked yesterday for the Blue Jays, who pulled Kevin Gausman quickly in the sixth after he gave up a game-tying home run to Cal Raleigh and walked Julio Rodriguez, Brendon Little came in and promptly threw a wild pitch before Jorge Polanco hit a go-ahead single.

Seattle did a magnificent job against Toronto’s hitters. The Blue Jays didn’t have a hit after the second inning. There was a little bit of unfortunate batted ball luck, as they had a higher xBA (.241) than the Mariners (.226) and had four lineouts on batted balls with at least a .500 xBA. It took three Seattle relievers to finish the game and they all threw just eight pitches each.

This is a really tough spot for Seattle. It was a whirlwind 48 hours advancing to the ALCS, flying to Toronto, and then staying focused to win a late game last night. Now they play a 5 p.m. game today. I do like this matchup a little bit for Toronto against Gilbert based on his stuff profile. He has allowed a good bit of hard contact throughout his career, but makes up for it with the swings and misses. Toronto doesn’t swing and miss much.

It’s a bit of a hefty price, but Blue Jays 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 Runs is -140 and that’s my favorite play here. I lean slightly to Seattle +109, but I don’t think I can fire on that based on the handicap of Gilbert and also this spot.

Pick: Blue Jays 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (-140)

Dodgers (-157, 7.5) at Brewers

8:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)

Southpaw Blake Snell will lead the Dodgers into the NLCS against the Brewers, as Milwaukee tries to find 27 outs by using the entire pitching staff. I’m guessing we see a left-handed opener, maybe Aaron Ashby, in hopes of getting through the top of the order left-handed bats for the Dodgers. I guess it’s also possible that we see Jose Quintana just get the straight start. He’ll have to absorb some innings today.

Quintana threw 49 pitches on Wednesday and everybody had yesterday off, so the Brewers bullpen situation isn’t bad at all. Freddy Peralta is in line to start Game 2, so it’s all about getting through today and then settling back in until Games 3 and 4 become full of questions once again.

It may not matter much since Blake Snell is nothing like Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Drew Pomeranz, or any of the other lefties that Milwaukee has seen, but there has been a left-handed starter in four of the last five games against the Brewers. So they’ve seen a lot of them, for whatever that’s worth. Snell’s allowed two runs on five hits in 13 postseason innings thus far, with 18 strikeouts against five walks. He only threw 61.1 innings in the regular season over 11 starts and posted a 2.35 ERA with a 3.20 xERA and a 2.69 FIP.

It’s entirely possible that what we saw from Toronto happens to LA today. The adrenaline of just riding the wave and playing in the postseason might be more important than getting some R&R. The Dodgers haven’t used any of their pitchers since finishing the Phillies off on Thursday night. You go from the pressure-packed environment of the postseason to having to flip the switch back on after a few days off.

It would be a concern for me because the Brewers are going to throw a large variety of arms at the Dodgers today. I guess maybe a few hitters could see the same pitcher twice, but there will be a lot of different arm slots, pitch mixes, and pitch velocities and that isn’t always an easy thing for a hitter. The Dodgers have a balanced lineup by handedness, so they are really hard to match up against in the three-batter minimum era. Maybe that helps.

It’s hard to do more than just speculate since the Brewers are going to have a plan to deploy relievers that we don’t know about. Quintana and whoever opens are the only certainties, but that’s it beyond that and we don’t even know when Quintana will be used. He had a 3.96 ERA during the regular season, but a 5.18 xERA and a 4.81 FIP.

Snell’s deep pitch mix and his ability to limit hard contact with a career 33.8% Hard Hit% and a 5.8% Barrel% make me think that he’ll perform very well here. I’m not sure that the Dodgers, who only scored 16 runs in six games against the Brewers, find much success against this hodgepodge of arms.

Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-104)