MLB Best Bets Today October 19
One World Series team is known. The other is not, but we could know tonight, as Game 6 between the Mariners and Blue Jays is an elimination game at Rogers Centre. The Mariners have never been to the World Series, but they are a win tonight or tomorrow night away from changing that. The Blue Jays haven’t been in over 30 years. They have a much steeper uphill climb.
Logan Gilbert vs. Trey Yesavage is the pitching matchup tonight, as the rookie makes far and away the most important start of his career against a raucous, but nervous and anxious, hometown crowd.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 19:
Mariners vs. Blue Jays (-127, 8)
8:08 p.m. ET (FS1)
Most of the NFL Sunday action will be in the books by the time we get going here, so fire up that split screen with Falcons vs. 49ers and Mariners vs. Blue Jays. Or dial in it on it with your full attention. We haven’t gotten a ton of drama in this series, as Seattle won Game 1 3-1, but then the next four games were 10-3, 13-4, and 8-2. The 6-2 final score doesn’t indicate the level of Game 5 drama, as Cal Raleigh tied it with a cloud-poking solo homer and Eugenio Suarez hit the game-winning grand slam later in the inning.
Yesavage, who was spectacular in his first career playoff start against the Yankees in the last round, was far less spectacular in his start in this series. The Mariners got five runs on four hits off of him in four innings, with four strikeouts against three walks. He struck out 11 and only walked one over 5.1 no-hit innings against New York.
The 22-year-old with an elite splitter only threw 14 regular season innings for the Blue Jays after treating four minor league levels like child’s play. He allowed five runs on 13 hits with a 16/7 K/BB ratio in those three starts, which came against the Rays twice and the Royals. Yesavage allowed a ton of hard contact over those three starts and allowed seven hard-hit balls in his start earlier in the series, including a home run to Julio Rodriguez that narrowly bent inside the foul pole in the first inning.
Gilbert wasn’t overly sharp in Monday’s start either, as he allowed three runs on five hits in just three innings. He only struck out two and walked one, but it was a weird spot for Gilbert, who had pitched in relief three days earlier to send the Mariners to the ALCS in that 15-inning affair against the Tigers. He’s on regular rest here, so it stands to reason that he should probably be a good bit sharper.
He did miss some time with an elbow injury during the regular season, but posted a 3.44 ERA with a 3.03 xERA and a 3.35 FIP in 131 innings of work with a career-best 32.3% K% and a 15.5% SwStr%. The Blue Jays don’t swing and miss much, though, so we’ll see if he’s able to stay off the Barrel in this crucial start.
This is a tough spot for the Blue Jays. Yesavage is a massive unknown and the Toronto bullpen has not been good in this series. The starters have allowed 12 runs in five starts and the bullpen has allowed 13 runs in five games. The Mariners bullpen has been iffy, too, as they’ve allowed 11 runs in the series. The Mariners are also trying to thread the needle with a 28/19 K/BB ratio in the series. At least the Blue Jays have 49 K to go with the 21 walks they’ve surrendered.
I do think that Dan Wilson has outmanaged John Schneider in this series with his bullpen usage, so we’ll see if that factors into the equation.
From a side standpoint, I lean Seattle at the plus price, just because Schneider has a higher likelihood of needing a quick hook for his starter and his relievers, especially the middle relievers, have been questionable. But, it’s just a lean. I’m not making the bet.
I’ll take a shot on Yesavage Over 1.5 Walks Allowed, as he allowed 2+ in each of his three regular season starts and walked three in his start against the Mariners earlier in the series. It’s a huge moment for the 22-year-old. Otherwise, elimination games often have good live betting opportunities, so let’s keep an eye out for those.
Pick: Trey Yesavage (TOR) Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-108)
