MLB Best Bets Today October 15

With a 2-0 series lead, the Dodgers had a nice flight back home, while the Brewers probably did some soul searching during theirs. Those two teams will have the night off with the travel day, as the Blue Jays and Mariners take center stage after a couple long flights of their own. Similarly, we have a 2-0 series here where the team that flew home was the one with the lead.

We’ll have both games on Thursday and Friday, but today we only have the one, so let’s take a look at it and find some betting opportunities.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for October 15:

Blue Jays at Mariners (-132, 7)

8:08 p.m. ET (FS1)

Shane Bieber and George Kirby are the listed starters for tonight, as two guys who have exhibited outstanding command and control throughout their careers will look to keep up those high standards.

Bieber had a rough outing in his start against the Yankees, as he came off the shelf on a 10-day layoff to allow three runs on five hits in 2.2 innings of work. He made seven regular season starts over 40.1 innings with a 3.57 ERA, but that only tells part of the story. He allowed a 21.1% HR/FB%, as eight of the 34 hits he surrendered left the yard. While he only walked seven and had his usual control, the command wasn’t there. Opposing batters hit .225 with a .245 BABIP, but there was a lot of luck sprinkled in there because Bieber allowed a career-high 48.2% Hard Hit% and a 12.3% Barrel%.

He got hit very hard, as evidenced by his 4.58 xERA. He also had a 4.47 FIP, a very high number when you consider that walks and hit by pitches (zero) are two of the four stats involved. Bieber’s fastball is more of a show pitch that he attempts to use to get ahead in early-count situations or get back into a count. He’d rather throw cutters, sliders, and curveballs to the outer portion of the plate against righties and jam lefties. Without pristine command, which he’s had in the past and doesn’t have now, the fact that you don’t have to worry about the inner part of the plate as a righty is a big advantage.

That’s why I’m not surprised to see that righties hit six of the eight homers he allowed and posted a .297/.342/.595 slash with a .396 wOBA against in 79 PA against RHB during the regular season. Lefties only hit .156/.188/.247 with a .192 wOBA. Seattle’s balanced lineup, including righties like Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, and Eugenio Suarez, is a tough matchup for this version of Bieber in my opinion. Also, former teammate Josh Naylor knows a thing or two about how he likes to attack hitters.

Kirby made two starts against Detroit and allowed three runs on nine hits over 10 innings with 14 strikeouts and just one walk. He’s fresher than he would normally be at this point after throwing just 126 innings during the regular season, but it is clear that Dan Wilson doesn’t want to overextend him a third time through the middle of the order.

That’s probably a good idea, as Kirby allowed a .286 wOBA the first time through, a .264 wOBA the second time through, and a .390 wOBA the third time through, including seven of his 15 home runs allowed. In 109 batters faced the third time through, Kirby allowed 20 runs. He allowed 20 runs out of 207 batters faced the first time through the order.

So, it’ll likely be a five-and-fly for Kirby. His Outs Recorded prop is juiced to -161 on Under 15.5, so everybody seems to have caught on to this postseason trend very quickly. There is of course the chance that the Blue Jays offense gets going. They didn’t suddenly forget how to hit. They had the lowest BABIP ever in a playoff game in Game 1 against Bryce Miller and even had four lineouts with xBAs of .500 or better that were simply outs. Logan Gilbert only generated five Whiffs in Game 2, though the Jays didn’t make a ton of quality contact off of him or anybody else.

Kirby is an aggressive strike-thrower and Toronto is an aggressive lineup. He’s a fastball/sinker/slider guy, so a lot of hard stuff in there and the Blue Jays should match up fairly well with that.

So, there are a few things I like today. The 1st 5 Over 3.5 is -135, and while a little chalky, I do like it. I think you can jump on Bieber early and Seattle has a lot of guys with a good approach against him in his current form. I also think Toronto’s aggressiveness against Kirby is a good thing for them because of his strike volume.

I also like Bieber 5+ Hits Allowed at +142. His base line is 3.5 with extreme juice to the Over. I do think there’s a chance we lose this because John Schneider manages very aggressively and pulls him because this is effectively a must-win game without being an elimination game. But, Bieber’s not locating overly well right now.

Seattle 1st Inning Run Yes is +210. Bieber will have to contend with at least two righties there in Arozarena and Rodriguez, as well as Cal Raleigh. Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor if people reach base. Bieber allowed a .267/.302/.533 slash with a .355 wOBA the first time through the order with five of his eight homers in the regular season. Interestingly, most of the damage was in the second inning, but that’s also a matter of teams playing the platoon game against a righty in all likelihood. The righties would be dropped down the lineup facing a right-handed pitcher. Seattle won’t do that.

Picks: 1st 5 Over 3.5 (-135); Shane Bieber (TOR) 5+ Hits Allowed (+142); Mariners ‘Yes’ 1st Inning Run (+210)