MLB Best Bets Today October 7
Once again today, one league steps aside and the other takes center stage, as the National League teams are in transit for Game 3 and the American League teams have already experienced their change of scenery. It will be Mariners vs. Tigers first, as Seattle plays a 1 p.m. ET body clock start in Motown. Blue Jays vs. Yankees follows, as Toronto has the opportunity to be the first team to punch a ticket to the LCS.
All four series will be in action tomorrow, assuming Toronto doesn’t end New York’s postseason run. That will be the last time we have more than two playoff games in a day.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 7:
Mariners (-137, 7.5) at Tigers
4:08 p.m. ET (FS1)
It was a rainy morning in Detroit and surrounding areas, but it does look like the bulk of the rain should move out by the evening. That said, this one could start with a delay. MLB won’t like that because it could overlap the Blue Jays/Yankees game, so I’m wondering if the players will be forced to play through some sprinkles and light showers or if they’ll wait until smooth sailing arrives.
The National Weather Service, which is still putting out forecasts despite the government shutdown, has a 49% chance of rain at 6 p.m., but it’s north of 60% at the scheduled start time. So, we’ll wait and see.
Regardless, a game should be played tonight and it will start with Logan Gilbert and Jack Flaherty with some pitcher-friendly conditions. The wind will be blowing out to RCF a bit, but it’s going to be cool and damp, so I don’t think that the ball will fly terribly well at Comerica Park. It’s a big, spacious outfield and that should force pitchers to make guys hit it to the big part of the yard.
Gilbert went 5.1 innings in his lone playoff start and allowed three runs on five hits. Gilbert got the Game 1 start in 2022 against Houston in the ALDS and it was a start he made on the road. He’s on the road here, where he had a 4.74 ERA, 2.5 whole runs higher than his home ERA. His wOBA on the road was 106 points higher than at home and his SLG against was over 150 points higher. He allowed 4+ runs in five of his 12 road efforts.
But, his two worst road starts came against the Phillies and Yankees and the Tigers are not remotely on that level offensively. That’s especially true here in the postseason, where the Tigers are batting .186/.289/.256 over 172 at bats and five games. They’ve drawn 22 walks, but have also struck out 59 times.
The game flow will dictate how Dan Wilson approaches this, but with yesterday’s travel day, the Mariners bullpen got a day off. Gilbert has a 2.33 ERA the first time through the order, a 2.84 the second time through, and a 7.66 ERA the third time through in 97 batters faced. We’ll see how proactive Wilson is.
Flaherty went 4.2 innings against Cleveland in the decisive Game 3 win that propelled Detroit to this round. He allowed a run on three hits with four strikeouts against a couple of walks. AJ Hinch had a pretty quick hook in what was a tight game until the Tigers blew it open in the seventh.
Flaherty had a 4.64 ERA with a 4.03 xERA and a 3.85 FIP. He had good K/BB numbers, but did give up a lot of hard contact with a 43.8% Hard Hit% and a 10.3% Barrel%. Even though Comerica is typically a pretty good pitcher’s park, he allowed 15 of his 23 homers at home.
The off day came at a great time for Seattle, as four relievers pitched in Games 1 and 2. Matt Brash actually threw 31 pitches on Sunday and 48 over the two games, so the day off really benefitted him.
No side or total bet from me in this game, though. I do think that the line is a tiny bit high on the Seattle side, but we can all agree that they are the better of the two teams and Gilbert, despite the home/road splits, has the higher ceiling between the two pitchers. It is also worth noting that when Seattle got out of T-Mobile Park, they posted a .259/.332/.444 slash with a .336 wOBA and a 116 wRC+. Compare that with a .229/.308/.393 slash at home with a .306 wOBA. Even though they finished with a losing record on the road, they scored 5.11 R/G compared to 4.35 R/G at home. They tied with the Yankees for the most HR hit on the road with 134.
I looked around for a player prop or something else that I liked in this one, but didn’t really find anything worthwhile.
No bet
Blue Jays at Yankees (-158, 7.5)
8:08 p.m. ET
Rain moves in well after tonight’s game should be finished and we’ll see if it’s mixed in with the tears of Yankees, Cowboys, and Lakers fans or not. The Blue Jays can finish this series and make their way into the ALCS for the first time since 2016 with a victory tonight. Toronto lost to Cleveland in that series, which is a little ironic because they’ll now go to battle with former Indians/Guardians pitcher Shane Bieber.
Bieber didn’t pitch in that series, as he didn’t make his MLB debut until 2018, but the Trade Deadline acquisition makes his fourth career postseason start here. He’s got a 5.00 ERA with 10 runs on 17 hits in 18 innings. He’s struck out 22 and walked six. He made seven regular season starts for the Jays with 16 runs on 34 hits in 40.1 innings, showcasing his usual terrific control with just seven walks against 37 strikeouts.
But, there are some flaws with Bieber, who has stellar career numbers. He’s given up eight homers in those 40.1 innings. Strike-throwers sometimes have that problem. He also allowed a 48.2% Hard Hit% and a 12.3% Barrel% in 114 batted balls, allowing an average exit velocity of 93.2 mph. All of those are easily career-highs for Bieber, whose fastball is extremely hittable.
I like Bieber a lot, but he really only works to half of the plate with his cutter, slider, and curveball. He pitches a lot of righties away and teams with power to the opposite field can have success. He gave up seven runs on nine hits to the Yankees in his first playoff start during the COVID year, but was much better against them in his 2022 ALDS outing.
But, New York does have guys on the right side willing to go oppo. Bieber’s SwStr% of 12.2% is still really solid, though he didn’t get a lot of swings and misses in his final two starts. He also hasn’t pitched since September 26. I’d be really worried about rust here.
Carlos Rodon gave up three runs on four hits over six innings in his start against Boston in the Wild Card Round. He struck out six, walked three, and really struggled late in that outing, giving up a game-tying HR to Trevor Story and then exiting the game after a walk and a hit by pitch.
He had good regular season numbers with a 3.09 ERA, 3.31 xERA, and a 3.78 FIP. Rodon shaved 2% off his Hard Hit% and 3.5% off of his Barrel% year over year and that’s why he was able to find a lot more success. I’m not so certain he does that here against a Blue Jays lineup that was magnificent at Rogers Centre in the first two games of the series. While absolutely true that Toronto is dramatically more productive at home than on the road, Rodon’s best attribute is missing bats. In his first two seasons with New York, he allowed Hard Hit% of 41.6% and 40.9% and Barrel% of 12.1% and 11%.
He threw fewer fastballs this season, opting for more sliders and changeups, which helped cut down the hard contact against. But as good of an offense as Toronto was, they ranked 11th in batting runs on four-seam fastballs per Statcast. They were sixth in batting runs vs. changeups and fifth against sliders. Take away Rodon’s ability to get whiffs and mix in a lineup that does well against breaking and offspeed stuff and it’s a problem.
I like Over 7.5 the most in this game. I’ll also take a shot with Toronto to finish the series. New York’s bullpen has been iffy. I don’t love Bieber in this start, but I don’t think Rodon and the Yankees deserve this high of a price. Also, they’ve really lost their plate patience and a lot of guys do seem to be pressing. If they let a little pressure out early against Bieber, this game could go differently for them, but I’m just playing the price here.
Picks: Over 7.5 Runs (-119); Blue Jays +129
