MLB Best Bets Today October 14

After eight phenomenal innings from Blake Snell, the Dodgers made it the ultimate adventure in the ninth inning. They still found a way to get the 27th out of the game, so they took a 1-0 series lead with a 2-1 decision over the Brewers. Hits and offense were very hard to come by, as the Dodgers had seven hits and drew eight walks, but only mustered two runs with a 1-for-10 effort with runners in scoring position. The Brewers were 0-for-1 with RISP and it was the strikeout that ended the game.

On to Game 2 we go, as the ALCS takes a break for a travel day and the NLCS has the standalone spotlight in Milwaukee. After yesterday’s game had a lot of pitching uncertainty on the Brewers side of things, we have two normal starters today, as Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Freddy Peralta are slated to go.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for October 14:

Dodgers (-126, 7.5) at Brewers

8:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)

Yamamoto didn’t make it out of the first inning in his lone start against the Brewers during the regular season. Even though he posted a 2.49 ERA with a 2.73 xERA and a 2.94 FIP over 173.2 innings and 30 starts, his worst start of the season by far came against Milwaukee back on July 7. He allowed five runs (three earned) on four hits and two walks while facing just nine batters.

After giving up a double and a walk, Yamamoto got two outs, but then gave up a three-run homer, another hit and a walk, and an error extended the inning. One single later and Yamamoto was out and Jack Dreyer came in. From his next start through the end of the regular season, Yamamoto posted a 2.12 ERA with a 2.43 FIP and only allowed four homers in 76.1 innings of work. He allowed five runs in that start against the Brewers. He allowed five runs total over his last six regular season starts.

He has allowed five runs in two playoff starts thus far, but only three of them are earned. He’s struck out 11 and walked three. As the season progressed, Yamamoto exhibited some of the best fastball command in the league and also generated a ton of swings and misses with his splitter. Milwaukee was a slightly above average offense on both pitches per Statcast Batting Runs by Pitch Type.

In hopes of tying up the series, the Brewers will go to staff ace Freddy Peralta. He finished the regular season with a career-best 2.70 ERA in a career-high 176.2 innings of work. He had a 3.47 xERA and a 3.64 FIP, so he did benefit a bit from the Brewers’ excellent defense, but he also had his best season since 2022 in terms of home run prevention. His FIP and xERA were also a bit elevated because of his walk rate and a 9.2% Barrel%. He stranded 85.5% of baserunners, which was among the highest marks in the league.

So far in two postseason efforts, he has allowed five runs on seven hits, including three homers. He does have 15 strikeouts out of 41 batters faced. All five runs came last series against the Cubs, a team that has seen him a lot over the course of his career and this season. The Dodgers don’t have nearly as much exposure against him, so we’ll see if that helps any. Another advantage for Peralta is that he stayed on his normal turn, even though he only threw two innings on September 28. He then started Saturday and Thursday, so he’s been able to stay in his normal routine, even with the bye week that the Brewers had for the best record in baseball.

Peralta was masterful at home this season, holding opponents to a .192/.263/.297 slash with a .252 wOBA. He had a 29.5% K% and a 7.7% BB% in 91.2 innings and only allowed seven homers compared to 14 on the road. He had a 10.6% BB% on the road. I’d say the Brewers are fortunate to be able to use him at home rather than on the road at Dodger Stadium in Game 3.

Milwaukee used five relievers yesterday to keep the game tight and the Dodgers only used two, but I’m not sure Roki Sasaki will be available today. He threw 22 pitches and the Dodgers are being very careful with him. He hasn’t worked back-to-back days yet and I would be very surprised if he did here. Even after throwing just 11 pitches on October 4, manager Dave Roberts tried to get through the ninth two days later with Blake Treinen and Alex Vesia before going to Sasaki for two pitches.

I’ll look at the Under 7.5 again tonight. It wasn’t quite as juicy yesterday as it is today at -124, but Yamamoto was better on the road than at home during the regular season and Peralta was excellent at home. The Brewers are a really, really smart organization and I think they’ll have good pitching plans against Dodgers hitters. Like I said yesterday and in my series preview, the Dodgers only scored 16 runs against Brewers pitching in six regular season games and only scored two runs yesterday, despite a bevy of chances. They should get fewer chances tonight.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-124)