MLB Best Bets Today October 4
Four teams have been eliminated from the MLB playoffs, but four new teams join the fray, as the top two seeds in each league that enjoyed a bye week will now get back on the field. All four of them are at home and all four of them are favored as the ALDS and NLDS get underway. MLB, in its infinite wisdom, opted not to set the schedule up to play on Friday, when they had virtually no competition for eyes, but will now go up against college football and the NFL for the first two days of the Divisional Round.
Like I’ve been doing, I’ll write up thoughts on every game, whether I have a wager or not. Also, linked below my Game 1 thoughts are my series previews and how I would approach those prices and what I think of those matchups.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 4:
Cubs at Brewers (-144, 7.5)
2:08 p.m. ET (TBS/HBO Max)
After throwing just 58 pitches in Game 1 against the Padres, Matthew Boyd will turn around on slightly shortened rest and get the start here for the Cubs against the Brewers. Boyd only gave up one run on four hits with a couple strikeouts in his 4.1 innings of work, but manager Craig Counsell wanted to protect him from turning over the San Diego lineup for a third time. He went to Daniel Palencia with a runner on first for Fernando Tatis Jr. and Palencia got out of the inning with no further damage.
After Counsell’s proactive managerial move, the Cubs hit back-to-back homers to lead off their half of the fifth and took a lead that they would never relinquish. The Brewers were actually a better offense against lefties than the Padres over the course of the season, but they don’t necessarily have any right-handed bats like Tatis and Manny Machado. Jackson Chourio led the team with seven homers against southpaws. So, I think Boyd has a longer leash here.
All in all, Boyd was good over those 4.1 innings. He only issued one walk and limited hard contact. It was an extension of what we saw from him in the regular season with a 3.21 ERA, 3.72 xERA, and a 3.65 FIP. With tomorrow’s off day, the Cubs can afford to be very aggressive with their bullpen if need be, but Boyd, who did struggle in August and September, looked comfortable in the pressure-packed setting.
Freddy Peralta will make his fourth postseason start and seventh total appearance today. He’s got a 4.00 ERA with a 3.36 FIP in 18 previous innings in the playoffs. He allowed three runs on just two hits to the Mets last year over four innings and then threw a scoreless inning in relief in the decisive Game 3 of the Wild Card Round. He wrapped up a fine regular season with a 2.70 ERA, 3.46 xERA, and a 3.65 FIP.
As I wrote in my series preview, runs were pretty tough to come by for the hosts and the visitors at American Family Field. Peralta posted a 1.77 ERA at home in 91.2 innings of work with just seven of his 21 homers allowed. He held the opposition to a .192/.263/.297 slash with a .252 wOBA and had a 108/28 K/BB ratio. He had a BB% over 10% on the road, but finished at 7.7% at home. So, it’s a big deal that he gets to make this start at home.
I also talked about this in my preview, but you have a lot of very well-rested relievers for these teams with byes and that’s not always a good thing. The team that had the bye is 6-6 in the series since this format was adopted in 2022. I think it can be tricky to flip the switch and suddenly shine in this stressful environment.
The Game 1 price on the Brewers is probably a little bit inflated, though Peralta’s home numbers are stellar. But, I already played the Cubs series price here when Boyd was announced as the Game 1 starter, so I’m not going to double down. I was hoping they’d come back with Boyd instead of rolling out Colin Rea or somebody else.
No bet; Cubs series price starts today
Yankees at Blue Jays (-123, 8.5)
4:08 p.m. ET (FOX)
Here we see the difference between getting the bye by winning the division and not getting the bye. Instead of being able to throw Max Fried in Game 1, the Yankees have to grin and bear it with Luis Gil. I thought Will Warren might be the option here, but it will be Gil, the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year.
He looked like a shell of that pitcher, as he went from 29 starts down to 11 and had a 3.32 ERA, which was actually better than his 2024 season, but his peripherals were much, much worse. He was fortunate to allow just a 6.3% HR/FB% because his K% went down by 10% and he somehow did worse with walks, going from a 12.1% BB% to a 13.5% BB%. He had a 4.78 xERA and a 4.63 FIP, but a .256 BABIP, 78.4% LOB%, and that low home run rate spared him in a big way.
Gil made two starts in last year’s postseason and allowed six runs on eight hits in eight innings with more walks (5) than strikeouts (4). This is kind of a mesmerizing matchup against the Jays, though. Toronto is an aggressive, contact-oriented lineup. They don’t walk a ton and don’t strike out a lot either. But because Gil is so wild and the raw stuff remains pretty good, it is a challenge to square him up. That said, the Yankees are not a great defensive team and Toronto’s balls-in-play style offense has the chance to do well here.
With Warren in reserve and only one reliever needed on Thursday thanks to Cam Schlittler’s legendary performance, Aaron Boone can be very aggressive here. The AL teams do not have tomorrow off like the NL teams do, but they do get an off day next week between Games 3 and 4 to separate the leagues again. So, Boone can push his guys a bit more for these two games in Toronto. I don’t think Gil has a long leash here at all. Warren and Paul Blackburn are capable of throwing multiple innings.
Kevin Gausman gets the call for the blue birds here, as he enters with a 3.59 ERA, 3.70 xERA, and a 3.42 FIP. This will be his fourth career postseason start and ninth total appearance. Admittedly, Gausman strikes me as a good pitcher to back in the playoffs. He has a 4.91 ERA, but a 3.63 FIP and 3.31 xFIP. He doesn’t allow a lot of homers. His splitter helps neutralize the platoon advantage. He doesn’t walk many guys. I do wish his K% was as high as it was a few seasons ago, but a 25.9% K% against righties is nothing to scoff at. Also, his K% at home was 26% compared to 22.7% on the road.
The savvy vet was also really, really good in the second half of the season. He had a 2.81 ERA in the second half with a .201/.241/.321 slash and a .245 wOBA. Those numbers are -27, -49, -64, and -49 from the first half, so he really made some strong improvements in all of those areas, plus he cut down his home run rate and also improved both his K% and BB%.
Like I wrote in my series preview, I did take Toronto +130 as a pre-series position. I like them here in Game 1 and so I wanted to grab that price. If they win Game 1, then I can play back on the Yankees with Fried, Rodon, and Schlittler ready to deploy and I think they get back into the series.
But, Gausman over Gil is a nice advantage for Toronto and Gausman is a tough matchup for the Yankees lineup because of his stinginess with allowing homers, his good K/BB numbers, his ability to neutralize the splits, and it obviously doesn’t hurt to be pitching at home.
If you didn’t take the Blue Jays for the series, then they are a Game 1 bet in my estimation at -123. But, DraftKings still has Toronto +130 for the series as I’m writing this.
Like Toronto Game 1, but +130 Series Price has more equity and more future value if they win
Yankees-Blue Jays ALDS Preview
Dodgers at Phillies (-120, 7)
6:38 p.m. ET (TBS/HBO Max)
What a series this is. I cannot wait to follow along with this one. Shohei Ohtani and Cristopher Sanchez will get us going here, as the Phillies enter the postseason without Zack Wheeler, who is out into next season.
Ohtani has another NL MVP in the bag, as he batted .282/.392/.622 with a 172 wRC+ and also threw 47 innings with a 2.87 ERA, 2.45 xERA, and a 1.90 FIP. I’m still amazed on a daily basis with what this dude can do. He struck out 62 in his 47 innings of work, though he did throw 10 wild pitches, so that’s something to follow here if the Phillies find a way to get some people on base.
Ohtani’s average fastball velo ticked up to 98.2 mph this season following his second Tommy John surgery. Part of that had to do with some abbreviated starts, but he sure seems healthy. That said, he’s definitely only going to go five innings max here, as the Dodgers are still bringing him along a little slowly. But, with Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, and Emmet Sheehan available out of the pen, this is just an embarrassment of riches and high-velo arms for the Dodgers.
Speaking of high velo, how did the Phillies fare against it? Well, I consider premium velo to be 97+ mph, though the average fastball velo in the Wild Card Round was approaching 96 mph, as guys aren’t worried about 162 anymore, they’re just worried about doing what they can to win a title.
If we look at results on pitches of 97+ mph, the Phillies were seventh in SLG at .383, seventh in wOBA at .315, and 10th in batting average at .242. It’s probably worth noting, even though Sanchez only averages about 95.3 mph with his sinker, that the Dodgers were better in all three of those categories against premium velo. Might factor into the late-game situations in this series.
But, the idea that Ohtani, an excellent pitcher in his own right who was 36th in fWAR out of 189 NL pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, will go as long as he can and then those other guys can come in is just absurd. It’s ridiculous. It’s why I bet the Dodgers to win the World Series before the playoffs began.
Sanchez had a terrific season himself. He saw a big K% bump and continued to get a lot of grass stains on the baseball with a 58.3% GB%. He only gave up 12 homers in 202 innings of work after allowing 11 in 181.2 innings last season. As I continue to mention, it is extremely hard to score runs in the postseason without the use of the long ball. Sanchez had a 2.50 ERA with a 3.01 xERA and a 2.55 FIP in his 32 starts and he was actually better in the second half than he was in the first half.
Also, Sanchez was very comfortable at home, posting a 1.94 ERA in 97.2 innings of work with just a .200/.247/.290 slash against and a much higher K% and a better BB%. He had a 115/17 K/BB ratio at home, which is outstanding. The Dodgers were the third-best offense in baseball against lefties and nearly as good against lefties as they were against righties.
To me, this line is closer to a toss-up than the -120 price on the Phillies implies. It’s not like it’s that far off, but I really think Dave Roberts wants Game 1 and he knows he’s getting four or five innings out of Ohtani, so this is the spot to deploy Glasnow, as you’ve got Blake Snell on Monday and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Wednesday. The Phillies may have some rusty relievers and I think that could make the difference.
For the purposes of this article, Dodgers -101 is the play, but I don’t hate waiting to see if you can get a better plus-money price on the Dodgers if Ohtani gets into a little trouble. I think the Dodgers have the edge in the later innings and that’s how I’d try to approach it.
Pick: Dodgers -101
Tigers at Mariners (-202, 7)
8:38 p.m. ET (FS1)
The late game brings together the Tigers and Mariners, as George Kirby gets the call for Seattle. Hard-throwing, multi-inning righty Troy Melton will start the game for the Tigers. A.J. Hinch will play the matchups after that, as he has Tyler Holton, Brant Hurter, and Keider Montero at his disposal to try and bridge the gap to the others.
Melton had a rare miss of an outing against the Guardians, as he allowed four runs on three hits and a walk to the five batters he faced in Game 2. Melton was a very reliable arm otherwise with a 2.76 ERA, 3.72 xERA, and a 4.60 FIP in his 45.2 MLB innings. Melton’s high K% from the minors did not translate to the bigs, as he only mustered 36 strikeouts in 45.2 innings of work.
He did have a 49.2% Hard Hit% against and an 8.6% Barrel%. There’s a ton of promise here and I think the Tigers will stretch him back out as a starter for next season and I think he’ll be a really good play-on kind of guy once they harness and maximize his arsenal. He started the season in Double-A and I’m not sure the Tigers coaching staff or front office expected him to be a big league option this quickly. It’s much easier to work on things in Triple-A and Spring Training, so I think he could be a very good starter next season.
Here, he’ll go as far as he can. He went 3.2 innings against the Guardians on September 25 in his first start since August 13. He went five shutout innings in that start against the White Sox, so he can provide some length. Holton threw 31 pitches on Wednesday and just seven on Tuesday, so I think he’s an option and so is Hurter, who threw 11 pitches in his only series action on Wednesday.
Holton wasn’t as good this season as he was the previous two seasons, but he’s still a change of pace southpaw who had a 3.66 ERA with a 3.80 xERA and a 4.64 FIP. The problem for Holton this season is that his HR/FB% skyrocketed to 20.8%. Righties hit 11 of those 15 homers and had a .500 SLG against him. The Mariners are a pretty right-handed group, so it may be tough to find spots to use him today and in this series. The same thing for Hurter.
I guess that does mean we’re more likely to see Montero, who is not a very good pitcher in my estimation. He had a 4.37 ERA with a 4.65 xERA and a 4.93 FIP in 90.2 innings of work. He, too, had a home run issue with a 15% HR/FB%. T-Mobile Park might be forgiving for him, and he was at least a lot better against righties than he was against lefties.
Dan Wilson has a much easier path in this game, and, frankly, he needs to win today because the Mariners get Tarik Skubal tomorrow. Kirby wasn’t the Kirby we’re used to seeing with a 4.21 ERA, 3.85 xERA, and a 3.37 FIP in his 126 innings of work. But, he was excellent at home once again and gets the home start here, as opposed to going on the road, where his ERA was nearly two runs higher and his other stats were all worse.
I like Over 7 here. Kirby is an extreme strike-thrower and the Tigers were seventh in Barrel% this season. The Mariners were sixth. So, I think we could see some hard-hit balls today. Also, the Mariners could have those rusty relievers like the Phillies. And I think Hinch doesn’t have as many matchup advantages with Seattle’s lineup composition as he has against some other teams.
Pick: Over 7 Runs (-108)
