MLB Best Bets Today October 11

Three of the four spots in the LCS have been claimed, as the Mariners outlasted the Tigers in an instant classic on Friday night. The lone spot comes down to the Cubs and Brewers, which seems really fitting with two division rivals in a winner-take-all game with much higher stakes than a division crown. Milwaukee has home-field advantage after winning the NL Central and we’ll see if that has any bearing on the winner of this one.

Not only do I have a write-up on this game, but also a series preview for Mariners vs. Blue Jays, as Seattle was able to celebrate late Friday, but also had to prepare for a long flight to Toronto for Game 1 on Sunday.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for October 11:

Cubs at Brewers (-144, 7.5)

8:08 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)

If Game 5 between the Mariners and Tigers showed us anything, it is that all hands are on deck. Luis Castillo was the winning pitcher for Seattle. Jack Flaherty threw two relief innings for Detroit. Logan Gilbert also pitched in relief for the Mariners. In order to make it to the next round, everybody is on alert.

Obviously that game required a lot of extra innings, but Craig Counsell and Pat Murphy will use anybody and everybody to try to advance. That could certainly be to the Dodgers’ benefit, but that’s something to worry about for another day. Just ask the Mariners, who now have to figure out who will start Game 1 for them tomorrow.

Speaking of starters, neither guy had been named as of this morning for Cubs vs. Brewers. It is Shota Imanaga’s turn to pitch, but he has not been good in the postseason, allowing six runs on eight hits, including three homers, in just 6.2 innings of work. While this is a small sample size, he also wasn’t sharp down the stretch, including a 6.51 ERA in September with 10 homers allowed, leading to a .606 SLG. I know he’s one of the guys that got you there, but I wouldn’t use him for more than maybe an inning or two against the bottom of the order in a must-win game.

Milwaukee is expected to turn to Jacob Misiorowski for multiple innings after he threw 57 pitches on Monday. My guess is that Jose Quintana is also an option, as he threw 49 pitches on Wednesday. Between Thursday’s game and yesterday’s off day, the Brewers bullpen is actually in really good shape. I’m not sure if Murphy will want to turn to Chad Patrick for a fourth time in six days, but I guess it’s possible. Quinn Priester struggled in his Game 3 appearance with four runs allowed on just three hits as five of the seven batters he faced were able to reach base. But, I think he’s an option here as well.

Chicago has other options outside of Imanaga. Aaron Civale, Colin Rea (60 pitches on Monday), Ben Brown, and Michael Soroka are all fresh arms. Brown threw two innings in Game 1. Civale worked 4.1 innings in Game 1. Rea had 3.1 innings in Game 2. Soroka had a bad relief inning in Game 1. Jameson Taillon threw 75 pitches in Game 3 on Wednesday, so he’s probably an “in case of emergency” arm.

This game clearly has a lot of degrees of uncertainty and it’s hard to wager into that when the managers are going to try to mix and match as much as they can. Counsell told reporters that the only guy unavailable is Matthew Boyd. For the Brewers, I’d assume Murphy’s response would be similar in that Freddy Peralta is the only guy who won’t be used.

The price is too big to lay on Milwaukee, as it has kept growing. I think that’s largely a fade of Imanaga. But, Chicago’s risky with a lot of pitch-to-contact back-of-the-rotation starters among the available pitchers. I’ve got a couple things on the brain here. 1st 3 Innings Over 2.5 at +110. 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 at -140. The offenses have started really fast in this series and the starting pitching for both teams is underwhelming. As the specialists start rolling out in the later innings, that could cut down the scoring.

Picks: 1st 3 Innings Over 2.5 (+110); 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 (-140)