MLB Best Bets Today April 18:
The weather is the big story on Friday around Major League Baseball. Wrigley Field could be a launching pad with winds blowing out at 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph on an 80-degree day on the North Side of Chicago. In direct contrast, snow is expected in Denver for Nationals/Rockies. We have several other wind games on the East Coast, with breezes blowing out in Baltimore, Queens, Philadelphia, and Boston, while the wind will be blowing in at Comerica Park in Detroit.
We’ve already got a total of 11 at Wrigley, even though Corbin Burnes is on the bump for the Diamondbacks, so we’ll see if we get a move to 11.5, as the juice is suggesting. Always check the weather forecast before locking in your wagers, as totals are impacted, but you’ll also run into situations with a ground ball pitcher vs. a fly ball pitcher and the wind could dictate some things in that regard as well.
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This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 18:
Kansas City Royals (-142, 7.5) at Detroit Tigers
6:40 p.m. ET
Cole Ragans looks hellbent on improving his standing in the AL Cy Young Award winner race. After finishing fourth last season, Ragans leads the league in strikeouts with 34 as he heads into his fifth start of the season. Things were a little rocky on Opening Day against the Guardians with three runs allowed on five hits and only three strikeouts over five innings…
But since then, Ragans has struck out 10, 11, and 10, including a second crack at the Guardians, where he had 10 punchies against zero walks over 7.2 highly efficient innings. Ragans has only walked four. The Tigers have done a good job of drawing walks this season, but they’ve also struck out over 25% of the time.
Of the top 10 in plate appearances for Detroit, nine of those players have a K% north of 20%. The only one who doesn’t is left-handed hitter Trey Sweeney, who either won’t play or will be at a disadvantage, as he has a career 27.5% K% against southpaws.
This is a lofty number with Ragans needing to get over a strikeout per inning to go Over this total, but his stuff is insanely explosive right now. He hasn’t had a Z-Contact% higher than 77.8%, so he’s getting lots of Whiffs in the zone, has started 0-1 on 65.6% of batters, has a SwStr% of 17.3% and has been stunningly dominant since that first start of the season.
Pick: Cole Ragans (KC) Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (-218, 7.5)
6:45 p.m. ET
We have a battle of aces in the City of Brotherly Love today, as Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Marlins and Zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Phillies. Wheeler is struggling a bit, at least by his standards, as he comes in with a 4.07 ERA over four starts and 24.1 innings of work. He still has his usual excellent K/BB numbers and his advanced metrics do show some positive regression with a 2.50 xERA, 3.70 FIP, and a 3.10 xFIP.
Wheeler’s last two starts haven’t been great, as he’s allowed nine runs on 15 hits in 11.1 innings to the Braves and Cardinals. He only recorded three strikeouts last time out against St. Louis. He also only had three strikeouts in that outing, even though his SwStr% was decent and he threw a ton of first-pitch strikes. Right now, though, his command is just off a little bit. He has allowed a home run in each of his four starts and is allowing more fly balls than usual. Not only that, but he’s allowing the highest Pull% of his career right now at 47%. His career-high is 42.4% in 2022. It also may change, but this is the highest fly ball rate of his career at 43.3%.
In other words, Wheeler is off a little bit right now. Philly is also one of the venues with a helping breeze blowing out today, so that could give a bit of a bump to pulled fly balls, of which Wheeler has allowed more than usual.
Alcantara is still getting guys to beat the ball into the ground with a 65.1% GB%. He has a 4.70 ERA with a 3.93 xERA and a 3.84 FIP, though, as he has had some problems generating strikeouts, especially when it comes to offsetting walks. He gave up four runs on five hits last time out, as he walked four for the second time in a game.
He only had a 3.4% SwStr% in his last start and has progressively gone down in each of his three starts. He’s not generating many chases right now and has not gotten Whiffs on pitches in the zone either. Initially, I was thinking I could give the Marlins 1st 5 a shot at +160, but I don’t like the trend line for Alcantara, who seems to be trying to find it after missing the 2024 season. But, the 1st 5 Over 3.5 is juiced a bit at -135, at least at DraftKings, where I pull lines from because of the widespread availability for readers.
Instead, I’ve found a couple of alternate bets that I like at plus money and hopefully they both come through. To “fade” Wheeler, I’ll go with Marlins 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 at +120. Wheeler’s pulled fly ball rate coupled with today’s helping wind gives this bet a little more promise. Obviously the Marlins lineup has some holes, but they’ve essentially been a league-average group thus far, so I’ll take my chances here.
Re: Alcantara, I like Under 17.5 Outs Recorded at +115. Alcantara is 0-for-3 on this prop so far and actually went 11 days between starts last time out, as the Marlins have him on an innings limit. To get through six innings, he’ll need to be way more efficient than he has been, as he’s had a lot of deep counts. And like I said, he’s not getting chases outside the zone. The Nationals had a 100% Z-Contact% last time out and the Mets had a 92.6%. Foul balls and walks run up pitch counts in a big way.
Picks: Marlins 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 Runs (+120); Sandy Alcantara (MIA) Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+115)
New York Yankees (-120, 8.5) at Tampa Bay Rays
7:05 p.m. ET
The Yankees and Rays square off in a battle of AL East rivals tonight after the Yankees drew first blood in the series yesterday. It has to be an odd dynamic with the Rays playing games in New York’s Spring Training stadium, but the awkwardness should be over today after yesterday’s game.
Carlos Rodon and Drew Rasmussen are the listed hurlers for today and Rasmussen profiles as the kind of guy who can actually have some success against the Bronx Bombers. He’s a right-handed ground ball artist with a higher K% and a low BB%. He’s allowed one run on nine hits over 15 innings of work with a 15/2 K/BB ratio. His 47.2% GB% is actually just below his career average, but the Rays have attempted to alter some pitch mixes to induce more worm-burners at home, as their new ballpark plays a whole hell of a lot different than their usual home.
Rasmussen’s sinker usage last time out against the Braves was his highest of the season and I’d expect something similar tonight. The Braves are also a team that makes a lot of loud aerial contact, so he’s already executed tonight’s blueprint recently. He threw five shutout innings with a season-high 54.5% GB% to go with seven strikeouts.
Rodon has had a bit of a rough go to this point. While he, too, is inducing a lot of grounders, he’s also allowed a home run in every start and has now allowed 14 runs over his last three starts. He’s not giving up a lot of hits, but he’s struggling with runners on base and he’s been putting them there on his own accord with 12 walks, including 10 in his last 17.2 innings. The Rays are a tough test, as they rank seventh in wOBA early in the year. They’re also making a lot of contact.
Because of the 15-cent price difference and the more rested Rays bullpen, I’ll take the full game with Tampa Bay here. Devin Williams has worked four of the last six days, so I doubt he’s available and Luke Weaver has thrown 63 pitches over the last six days. The Rays have one reliever (Eric Orze) on a back-to-back, as they’ve used a lot of low-leverage guys lately.
Pick: Rays +100
