MLB Best Bets Today April 4:
After having just five games to pick from yesterday, and really only three with the two early starts, we’re back to a much bigger slate of games today. For some reason, despite playing in a dome, the Brewers will take a break in their series with the Reds, so that leaves us with 14 games on the April 4 schedule.
Teams playing at home for the first time are the Tigers, Red Sox, Mets, Rockies, Pirates, Giants, Braves, and Angels, while the White Sox, Cardinals, Padres, Blue Jays, Yankees, Mariners, Marlins, and Rays are playing their first road games of the campaign.
Top MLB Resources:
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 4:
Arizona Diamondbacks (-148, 8.5) at Washington Nationals
6:45 p.m. ET
West meets East here as the Diamondbacks and Nationals do battle at Nationals Park in D.C. It was a late night for the Snakes, as they played a slugfest in the Bronx where they couldn’t finish the sweep, but did take two of three in their first road series of the season. The Nationals are off to a rough start, but the offense has been okay, at least from a power standpoint with a .406 SLG. They’ve just struck out a ton, a byproduct of striking out 39 times in the three-game series against the Phillies.
Hopefully they can bang out some runs here because they’ll likely need them with Jake Irvin on the mound. Irvin only allowed two runs on seven hits in his first start against Philadelphia, but it could have and should have been a lot worse. He only struck out two of the 22 batters that he faced and allowed 12 hard-hit balls and three Barrels. The Phillies had just two hits in nine trips to the plate with men on base.
The Diamondbacks are off to a strong start offensively and will be sending out six or seven left-handed batters at Irvin, who has allowed a .262/.334/.478 slash to lefties over 696 plate appearances at the MLB level. He allowed 17 HR to lefties last season and 39 extra-base hits overall, leading to a .456 SLG.
But, Pfaadt has his own platoon problems. He’s also working on a lot of different things and has a deep arsenal of pitches, so he’s trying to get everything in working order. Lefties had four hits, including a double and a homer, in his first start against the Cubs. He allowed 10 hard-hit balls and two Barrels, so he comes in with a 52.6% Hard Hit%. Washington should be sending six left-handed sticks at him here.
So, a couple of plays here for me. I like Over 4.5 for the 1st 5 at -110. I’m also looking at Irvin Over 4.5 Hits Allowed at -140. It’s chalky, but Irvin got up to 92 pitches in his final Spring Training start and the Nationals look to be trying to build him up as an innings eater. As a guy with very little swing-and-miss, posting SwStr% of 7.0%, 9.5%, and then 7.2% in his first start this season, a talented Diamondbacks lineup should make a ton of contact.
It is also early and a lot of stats are messy, including defensive statistics, but the Nationals are a bottom-five defense by Outs Above Average.
Picks: Diamondbacks/Nationals 1st 5 Over 4.5 Runs (-110); Jake Irvin (WAS) Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140)
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (-112, 8)
7:40 p.m. ET
The Orioles and Royals come together for the first of three games this weekend at Kauffman Stadium. Dean Kremer takes on Seth Lugo and it’s been interesting to see a little bit of line movement towards the Baltimore side.
Kremer has a career 5.00 ERA in his career over 167.1 innings against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. Those outings make up 32 of his career 59 starts. In starts not against those three teams, he has a 3.99 ERA. He’s not facing one of those three teams today. KC is only batting .213/.287/.338 with a .275 wOBA and a 79 wRC+ to start off the season.
Kremer is a guy who cut his Hard Hit% down to 35.4% last season. He did give up a high rate of Barrels, but he was much stronger in the second half as he made adjustments throughout the course of the season. He cut his HR total from 13 in the first half to five in the second half and I would anticipate that he’s going to be able to sustain some of those adjustments with a smart organization.
I talked a lot about Lugo during the offseason and I am still looking to go against him early in the season here. Lugo’s massive workload in 2024 could absolutely have a carryover effect into the 2025 season. He gave up three runs on four hits with three walks and four strikeouts against the Guardians to open the campaign. His velo was down a tad, though he did throw nine different pitches. His spin rates were down across the board.
Gunnar Henderson is likely to be back and he’s going to add some more punch at the top of the order. The Orioles also have a well-rested bullpen and all of the arms except for maybe Bryan Baker are available. At a short underdog price with the far better audience and maybe not that much of a downgrade at starting pitcher, I’ll take the O’s. Shop around, as the rest of the market has a better number on this one.
Pick: Orioles -108
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-130, 8.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
It will be Nick Martinez and a Johnny Wholestaff matchup here, as the Reds send out the 34-year-old for his second start and the Brewers begin with Tyler Alexander. Martinez was really good for five innings against the Giants in his season opener, as he gave up a home run to Heliot Ramos in the fifth. He ran out of gas in the sixth, giving up a RBI double and a two-run homer before exiting down 4-0.
He only allowed four hard-hit balls in that start and is a guy that annually stands out in the contact management metrics. He’s allowed the lowest exit velo on four-seam fastballs over the last three seasons and has a good changeup to play off of that. Because of his deep pitch mix, he’s able to get a fair amount of swings and misses and he’s had well above average Chase Rates since coming back from Japan for the 2022 season. He’s a master of inducing weak contact and is extremely stingy about issuing walks. I love both factors against this Brewers offense.
Milwaukee has a litany of pitcher injuries right now, pushing Alexander into this start. This will be his third appearance and first since March 30, when he allowed two runs on one hit to the Yankees. He threw 47 pitches in that outing and I’d expect 50-55 here. The Brewers recalled minor leaguer Grant Anderson and have Rule 5 pick Connor Thomas as bridges to the higher-leverage relievers.
Even as Martinez is turning the lineup over, I think he’s better than the options Milwaukee has early in this game. Alexander gave up 23 HR in just 107.2 innings last season with the Rays and has been very susceptible to the long ball. He’s now in one of the better parks for hitting homers in Milwaukee, so that seems problematic.
The Reds offense is off to a slow start, but I think they’re being too patient. They have the fourth-highest Zone% against per Statcast and the third-highest Called Strike Percentage, while ranking 22nd in Swing%. I think they’ll be more aggressive against a pitch-to-contact guy like Alexander and that should make a difference.
I’m not sure what will happen in the late innings here and I hate taking -115 for the 1st 5 as opposed to +110 for the full game, but the handicap here is Martinez vs. the Brewers hurlers. Shop around and see if you can get a better price, as DK is often poor on their moneyline splits with MLB stuff.
Pick: Reds 1st 5 (-115)
Cleveland Guardians (-115, 8) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
Cleveland’s long road trip to open the season continues with a trip north to Anaheim to take on the Angels. It will be Gavin Williams and Jose Soriano in this one, as two guys that are generating a lot of buzz in the fantasy community take center stage. Soriano has a little bit more difficult of a matchup here against Guardians than what he had against the White Sox, but Cleveland has only scored 20 runs over six games with a .227/.295/.392 slash.
This is not a deep lineup. Soriano needs to navigate the top four hitters and there won’t be much of a problem towards the bottom of the order. He’s an extreme ground ball guy with a powerful sinker in the 96-97 range, but he may have added some more swing-and-miss upside this season with a sweeper. He also has an underrated knuckle curve.
His pitch efficiency is also a big deal here. I don’t find the Angels bullpen to be very deep, but Soriano pounds the zone and should get some early-count outs against this Cleveland lineup.
Williams only had a couple of strikeouts in his first start, but the stuff looked really good. His velocity was free and easy and he allowed just two runs on four hits over five innings to the Royals. One was an inherited runner that scored off of Cade Smith and the other was a bloop single from Salvador Perez. Williams only gave up two hard-hit balls, didn’t allow a Barrel, and pitched from in front nearly all game long.
He threw a ton of fastballs, which generally don’t get as many Whiffs as other pitches. I think we see a more diversified pitch mix here. Williams is probably a five-and-fly type, but the Guardians bullpen is extremely well-rested after getting swept in San Diego, so all the primary relievers are available against an Angels bunch batting .198/.267/.310 with a .253 wOBA and a 65 wRC+ thus far.
Pick: Guardians/Angels Under 8 (-112)
