MLB Best Bets Today August 1

The MLB Trade Deadline has come and gone. With no waiver trade deadline anymore, the teams are what they are for the rest of the season. It feels like now is really when the playoff chase begins and teams either lock in or start thinking about offseason plans. It can be a very tough blow to be a seller or a player on a team that doesn’t really buy, so you may want to factor that in. On the other hand, teams in the hunt that don’t exactly buy may feel a renewed sense of purpose and belief in themselves.

It all depends, but as we look at a new slate with 15 games and no favorites in the -200s, at least not as of yet, it should be a good night of baseball across the league.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for August 1:

Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 8.5) at Washington Nationals

6:45 p.m. ET

The Brewers mostly stood pat at the Trade Deadline, a sign of belief in the roster that they bring to the table. Milwaukee was 38-34 after 72 games on June 14 before winning a series on Sunday against the rival Cardinals. That win sparked a 28-10 run, so it’s understandable why the front office would feel like they’re in good shape moving forward.

The Brewers are a very impressive 36-20 at home, but they have gotten a bit lucky at AmFam Field. They only have a +32 run differential there. On the road, they are just 28-24, where they’ve got a +63 run differential. They’ve scored 4.2 R/G at home and 5.4 R/G on the road, so that’s the angle that I’m looking to attack here.

Mitchell Parker has a 4.91 ERA with a 4.47 FIP, but his 5.45 xERA is an example of how things could be worse. He’s got a terrible 14.9% K% and just a 6.4% K%-BB%, which is among the league’s worst for starters. He’s allowed a 49.9% Hard Hit% and a 9.0% Barrel%, so his contact management numbers are not very good either.

I can’t say I’m a huge Jose Quintana fan, but I’m not a Nationals fan either. They enter this one 25th in wOBA in the second half at just .296 with a 26.8% K%. Quintana is not a big strikeout guy, but it’s clear that the Nationals just don’t have a very good approach right now. Also, the presence of a lefty should cut down the running game for the Nats.

The Brewers have a knack for getting guys to overperform their advanced metrics, so maybe there’s staying power to Quintana’s 3.50 ERA, even with a 4.77 FIP and a 4.78 xERA. Even if a little regression hits, the Brewers could keep adding on today and throughout the weekend. The Nationals traded Luis Garcia, Andrew Chafin, and Kyle Finnegan, so three of their better relievers, and Brad Lord is now a starter again. I’ll be heavy on the Brewers here as they look to bounce back from that ugly 10-3 loss on Wednesday and also make a statement regarding the Cubs’ Trade Deadline moves.

Picks: Brewers Run Line -1.5 (+105); Brewers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-105); Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 (-120)

Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-137, 9.5)

9:38 p.m. ET

Even though there was no listed starter this morning, the expectation was that Shane Smith will make his return for the White Sox as he returns from a sprained ankle. To be honest, I don’t mind that Smith missed some time, as the rookie right-hander comes in with a 4.26 ERA, 4.30 xERA, and a 4.20 FIP in his 86.2 innings of work. He only threw 94.1 MiLB innings last season and 59.2 the season prior, so he’s close to working a career-high and they are much higher-stress innings at the MLB level.

The biggest thing here for me is that Smith has a 6.8% Barrel%. He’s given up a 46.2% Hard Hit%, but he’s induced a lot of ground balls and has shown some of the best fastball command in the league this season. The Angels have been good at barreling balls, but there aren’t a whole lot of other strong components to this offense.

And, for whatever reason, the White Sox have started hitting. They’ve got a .365 wOBA in the second half with a .292/.338/.514 slash and a .365 wOBA. The Angels are an above average offense since play resumed, but not to the degree of the White Sox. Also, over the last 30 days, the White Sox are second in baseball in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties.

I think it’s pretty telling that nobody wanted Tyler Anderson bad enough to trade for him yesterday. The Angels southpaw is an impending free agent, so he would have come cheap, but he is still an Angel today. He has a 4.11 ERA with a 4.54 xERA and a 5.11 FIP in his 112.1 innings of work. He has some poor peripherals with a 17.6% K% and an 8.9% BB% and his Barrel% is creeping towards 10% with 20 homers allowed in 112.1 innings of work. That’s a 1.6 HR/9.

The Angels kind of added, but kind of didn’t, as they got Andrew Chafin and Luis Garcia, a couple of 35+ RP to add to the bullpen. They didn’t really define much of anything for their direction moving forward, despite sort of being in striking distance. But, as a team that is +5 in BaseRuns record (more like a 48-61 team) and +5 in Pythagorean Win-Loss, I’m good with fading them tonight and pretty frequently in the second half.

Pick: White Sox +112