MLB Best Bets Today August 15

Key Highlights:

• Full 15 games on the MLB schedule today
• Rangers vs. Blue Jays: Concerns about Jacob deGrom?
• Braves vs. Guardians: 1st 5 Angles in Play

Less than half of the league was in action on Thursday, but that is definitely not the case on Friday, as all 30 MLB teams take the field. The 5-5-5 format is back with five games in each league and five interleague series as we are just around the midpoint of the month of August. For the teams in the playoff hunt, it is effectively a 40 or so game sprint to the finish now.

Every game carries some measure of importance this weekend, whether that’s for the teams that badly need the wins or the players that are looking for additional playing time, contracts and arbitration raises, personal benchmarks, or simply pride. That means we should have a good night, and a good weekend, on the diamond.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for August 15:

Texas Rangers (-112, 7.5) at Toronto Blue Jays

7:07 p.m. ET

It should be an incredible atmosphere tonight at Rogers Centre with the Rangers and Blue Jays battling it out. Jacob deGrom gets the call for Texas as they try to improve the look of things in the AL Wild Card race. Chris Bassitt goes for the home team as they go into the evening with a five-game lead in the AL East.

I’ve mentioned this a few times, but the Blue Jays are 40-20 at home and just 31-31 on the road. They’ve been good for 5.1 R/G at home and 4.6 R/G on the road, a gap that was much wider before this last road trip when they scored 45 runs in their three games at Coors Field.

Speaking of home/road performance, let’s start with Bassitt, who has been objectively terrible on the road and very, very good at home. In 77.1 innings at home, Bassitt has a 2.56 ERA with a .244/.302/.376 slash and a .299 wOBA. He has over a strikeout per inning from the Rogers Centre mound. He’s allowed just eight homers and has been dramatically better against lefties than he has been on the road.

Is deGrom running out of gas? The velocity is still there, but the command has not been. In his four second-half starts, JDG has allowed a 51.7% Hard Hit% and a 19% Barrel%. He’s given up 11 Barrels and has allowed 14 runs on 20 hits, including six homers. He’s still getting swings and misses and strikeouts, but the Blue Jays are the hardest team to strike out in baseball. deGrom is also tilting very heavily to the fly ball side of late with just a 29.3% GB%.

The Blue Jays also have a reliever advantage here, as their bullpen has a 3.79 ERA with a 4.57 FIP in August and the Rangers have a 4.09 ERA with a 5.09 FIP this month.

I like the value on the 1st 5 at plus money with Bassitt over deGrom and like the full game as well.

Picks: Blue Jays 1st 5 (+105); Blue Jays ML (-108)

Atlanta Braves at Cleveland Guardians (-119, 8.5)

7:10 p.m. ET

Hurston Waldrep makes his second MLB start of the season and Joey Cantillo makes his eighth as the Braves and Guardians battle in a rematch of the 1995 World Series, not that I’m still scarred by that childhood memory or anything.

Waldrep has worked 11.2 innings with two runs allowed on seven hits in his one start and one relief effort. He went six innings with one run on just four hits with six strikeouts against the Marlins on August 9 and now steps into a regular turn in the rotation. The 24th overall pick in 2023 will get to start throughout the rest of the season barring injury, and he’ll do so with a new pitch.

Catcher Sean Murphy encouraged Waldrep to throw a sinker earlier this season during a rehab assignment. Walks did hurt Waldrep in the minors with a 12.3% BB%, but the increased GB% was a nice sign for the future. He’s walked three of 44 batters in his two MLB appearances and the Guardians really don’t walk a whole lot, so I’m less concerned today.

This is also a fade of Cantillo. He’s made seven starts and has a 4.36 ERA with a 3.56 FIP, so there are some positive signs in the profile, but I’m very skeptical. He’s got a walk issue with 18 of those in 33 innings of work. His low HR total and high K% are the reasons why his FIP is so shiny, but he’s also allowed a 50% Hard Hit%.

The Braves are seventh in BB% this month at 9.8% and a top-10 offense this month against lefties with a .338 wOBA and a 117 wRC+. They’re still out there playing hard with wins in five of their last six and six of their last eight against teams with better records. But, I’m looking to fade Cantillo here as opposed to a full-game position.

Picks: Braves 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+110); Braves 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+114)

Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants (-132, 8)

10:15 p.m. ET

The Rays and Giants start up a weekend interleague set at Oracle Park with Joe Boyle against Landen Roupp. Roupp is returning from the IL, as he was placed on the injured list after his July 22 start. He gave up two runs on three hits in his lone rehab effort and only went three innings on 50 pitches, so he’s not going to be out there too long in this one.

Roupp’s been good with a 3.11 ERA, 4.06 xERA, and a 3.59 FIP. His K% and BB% are a little lower than what you’d really like to see, hence the high xERA. I’m worried that he won’t be overly sharp here against the Rays, as he just had that one quick rehab effort and the Giants activated him right away. 

Meanwhile, I like this spot for Boyle. He has a 3.82 ERA with a 3.92 xERA and a 4.97 FIP in his 30.2 innings, as he’s had some home run and control problems. As a fly ball guy, park factor really matters. He’s allowed 15 runs in just 15.2 innings, including four homers, pitching on the road this season. He’s allowed three runs in 15 innings and just one earned at home, which is actually surprising given his home park.

However, if you look at his days with Oakland, Boyle was better at home in both seasons. I think the marine air, even with a breeze blowing out, is helpful today. The ballpark was designed to minimize wind impact, so the breeze is rarely a factor, especially in night games. Neither team is hitting much in August, but I don’t see the need for the Rays to be this big of a 1st 5 underdog. San Francisco has dropped five in a row and 13 of the last 18. They might be a little checked out at this point.

Pick: Rays 1st 5 (+110)