MLB Best Bets Today August 22
Key Highlights:
- Royals vs. Tigers Best Bets
- Mets vs. Braves Prediction
- Guardians vs. Rangers Pick
Everybody is back to work today with 15 games on the MLB schedule for Friday. That includes Shane Bieber, who makes his first start as a member of the Blue Jays in his return from Tommy John surgery. We have quite the mix of pitchers scheduled to start today, as we have some aces, some less-than-aces, and some youngsters across the six games in each league and three interleague matchups.
Every game is a night game, as the first pitch of August 22 is set for 6:40 p.m. ET in Pittsburgh. We should have smooth sailing on the weather front as well, so all 15 games have a good chance at going off without a hitch, unless the unstable, humid air in Atlanta and Tampa produces storms over the ballpark.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 22:
Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-149, 8.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
Ryan Bergert and Casey Mize will attempt to keep their teams on a good path in this one, as the Royals have won six of their last seven and eight of their last 10 and the Tigers have righted the ship with seven wins in their last eight and 10 in their last 13. It should be a good series at Comerica Park and one that could effectively lock down the Central Division for Detroit.
Their 9.5-game lead is probably plenty safe with about six weeks left in the regular season, but with the Guardians back in a downturn, finishing off the Royals would seal the deal. I do think it will be tough tonight, as Bergert is a trade acquisition that I loved for KC at the time they made it and he hasn’t disappointed.
In three starts with KC, he has allowed six runs (five earned) on 12 hits in 16.2 innings with 17 strikeouts against five walks. He’s had 15 strikeouts in his last two starts, as his first start at Fenway Park was a little dicey with just two strikeouts, but he did limit the damage to two runs and two hits. Bergert has been leveraging his sweeper more frequently and has altered the movement of his changeup, presumably with a slight grip change.
I fully expected the Royals to make a tweak or two to maximize Bergert’s talent and that’s what they have done. They’ve become a brilliant organization with pitching development and Bergert is their latest project. He has an 11.9% SwStr% in his three starts for them and his 28.3% Chase Rate is well above his season-long Chase Rate of 23.9%, as is the SwStr% with a season-long mark of 9.3%.
I like him Over 4.5 Strikeouts at -120 today, as this one moved 10 cents during the write-up, but others have taken notice of his improvements.
While I also like Mize, and he’s coming off of a 10-strikeout effort against the Twins, I think the Royals are plenty live tonight. Mize has a 3.63 ERA with a 3.99 FIP for the season, but some LOB% regression has left him with a 6.92 ERA and a 4.58 FIP in his last six starts. Even though he hasn’t allowed a Barrel in his last two starts, and maybe he’s made some positive adjustments, he still has a 13.3% Barrel% in that span with a 45.3% Hard Hit%.
The Royals are second in wOBA at .362 against righties over the last 14 days with a .265/.357/.483 slash that also has them fourth in wRC+ at 130 in that span. Between Bergert’s breakout and what appears to be an offensive advantage, given that the Tigers have a .309 wOBA and a 97 wRC+ over the last 14 against RHP, I think the underdog price is worth a shot.
Picks: Royals +123; Ryan Bergert (KC) Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-121, 8.5)
7:15 p.m. ET
A big series in Atlanta kicks off tonight between the Mets and Braves. Atlanta is surging right now, having won seven of nine and 11 of their last 14. The Mets, as we all know, have fallen on tough times for a bit now. But, I think they’re close to getting stuff figured out and I believe they’ll get a lift from rookie Nolan McLean once again today.
McLean was good in his debut start against the Mariners with 5.1 shutout innings and eight strikeouts. He did walk four, and that was the worry coming up from the minors, but he checks a lot of boxes for me. Elite command profile in the minor leagues with a consistently high GB% and well over a strikeout per inning. He’s a guy that keeps the ball on the ground at well over a 50% clip and had a 27.2% K% in the minors this season. Walks are a lot less problematic when you limit hits and generate strikeouts.
What the Braves have done with Joey Wentz is thoroughly impressive, but I’m seeing a lot of regression signs creep into the profile. For starters, he’s had single-digit SwStr% in his last two starts and also saw a velocity dip in his last start against Cleveland. He was still effective because the Guardians can’t hit lefties, but he’s running a .224 BABIP with just a 5.9% HR/FB%. I don’t see those two numbers being sustainable the rest of the way.
This is a step up in class from Wentz’s last two opponents as well. The Mets bullpen is fresh given how they’ve played lately. While the Braves had an off day yesterday, Raisel Iglesias would be pitching a fourth time in six days. Just some minor things, but I feel like there is a mispricing on this game.
Pick: Mets -101
Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers (-156, 7.5)
8:05 p.m. ET
The slumping Guardians have dropped five of their last six as they open up a weekend set in Arlington. It doesn’t seem like things will get better for them today, as they line up against Nathan Eovaldi. While it won’t be a career year from a fWAR standpoint for the 35-year-old, he is sporting a 1.76 ERA with a 3.16 xERA and a 2.90 FIP. Only his 2021 season was better from a FIP standpoint. Those ERA and xERA marks are both career-bests.
Eovaldi doesn’t walk anybody, has a 50.2% GB%, and nearly a strikeout per inning over his 21 starts across 123 innings of work. That is about as picture-perfect as it gets for a starting pitcher in my opinion and that makes for a very reliable arm to back. It is also worth noting that Eovaldi goes from facing the Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, and Yankees to now facing the Guardians and their paltry lineup.
Lefties only own a .203/.253/.329 slash with a .255 wOBA against Eovaldi, so Cleveland’s platoon strategy doesn’t really make a difference in this one. Also, Eovaldi throws a splitter, which is akin to a changeup and Cleveland’s hitters haven’t hit pitches with downward movement like that since the Clinton Administration. The Guardians have the highest fly ball rate in baseball, yet still rank 20th in home runs because of a lack of contact authority.
Slade Cecconi gets the call for the Guardians. He’s been under his season-long SwStr% in five of his last six starts and has a 6.17 ERA and a 5.72 FIP in that span. That span is the second half, as he’s allowed at least three runs in five of those six efforts and has given up 13 runs on 18 hits with just seven strikeouts in his last two starts over 7.2 innings and 45 batters faced. He’s allowed a 50% Hard Hit% and a 13.7% Barrel% in those outings.
It’s a little bit chalky, but I’ll lay the Rangers 1st 5 Run Line price here at -0.5 and -130.
Pick: Rangers 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-130)
