MLB Best Bets Today August 29
Key Highlights:
- Cardinals vs. Reds Pick
- Padres vs. Twins Prediction
- Orioles vs. Giants Predictions
We’re back to business as usual in the baseball betting world, as all 30 teams are scheduled to take the field for some Friday night festivities. The first game doesn’t start until 6:40 p.m. ET in Cincinnati, so we have plenty of time to look for the best bets to make on August 29.
The big story tonight is that we have two extremely exciting debuts, as 2024 second-round pick Payton Tolle makes his first start for the Red Sox (against Paul Skenes! – weather permitting) and 2022 seventh-round pick Jonah Tong makes his first start for the Mets. The other big story is the Brewers and Blue Jays series, as two division leaders with the best records in their respective leagues open up a weekend set.
A programming note: Due to a prior commitment, there will not be a Saturday article on August 30.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 29:
Cardinals vs. Reds Pick (-135, 9)
6:40 p.m. ET
A lot of red will be on display in Cincinnati this weekend between the Cardinals and Reds. Matthew Liberatore and Zack Littell are slated to get this one started. This is a very simple handicap with a player prop, that is a bit juicy, but worth the squeeze.
Liberatore’s Outs Recorded prop is set at 15.5 with the Under at -145. Liberatore hasn’t gotten 16 or more outs since June 29. The Cardinals said that they would make a concerted effort to control his workload in the second half and that’s exactly what they have done. He’s gone 4.1, 5.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.1, 4.1, 3.0, and 5.0 in his last eight starts.
It also doesn’t help that he has a 5.82 ERA with a 6.00 FIP in those outings, as he only has 22 strikeouts against 15 walks in 34 innings of work. He’s still managed to give up at least three runs in each of his last seven starts. He has only averaged 77 pitches per start in his six outings after the All-Star Break.
At best, I think he gives St. Louis a five-and-fly, especially because St. Louis’s middle and long relievers are well-rested.
Pick: Matthew Liberatore (STL) Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-145)
Padres (-136, 8.5) vs. Twins Pick
8:10 p.m. ET
It will be Nestor Cortes and Zebby Matthews to open up this weekend interleague series in the Twin Cities. Cortes has made four starts as a member of the Padres and has been effective, including six shutout, one-hit innings against the Dodgers in his last outing. He does have a 5.41 FIP paired with his 3.00 ERA, but he did give up three homers in his start against the Giants and FIP can be fickle in a small sample size.
I’m guessing that Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla is starting to really hone in on his arsenal, as he has had a Z-Contact% of 81.5% and 80% in his last two starts, so he’s mixing his pitches more effectively, at least in terms of swings and misses. The Twins are a league average offense against LHP over the last 14 days, but they’re 22nd in wOBA overall this month.
Matthews is running out of time for some of his positive regression signs to hit, but perhaps they’ll hit here. The Padres are a bit of a conundrum on offense. Their extremely high BB% at home has greatly impacted that split, making their wOBA and wRC+ look pretty strong. Their contact authority and power numbers aren’t really there, though. That makes sense at Petco Park, but they have a nearly identical BA and SLG on the road, except they don’t have the high BB%. They only have a .307 wOBA on the road with a 7.1% BB%, more than 3% below their home mark.
Matthews has 67 K in 52.2 innings, so he’s racked up the punchies. He just has a .376 BABIP against, leading to a 5.30 ERA with a 3.82 FIP. As a strike-thrower, he’ll force the Padres to put the ball in play and, as I said, their contact quality is lacking. They are 27th in Barrel% and 29th in Hard Hit%.
I’m looking for a slow start in this one.
Pick: Padres/Twins 1st 5 Under 4.5 Runs (+100)
Orioles vs. Giants Predictions (-149, 7.5)
10:15 p.m. ET
Well, I took a game earlier with a lot of red. There will be a lot of orange for this one, as the Orioles and Giants start up a weekend interleague set. The Orioles send Dean Kremer to the hill and the Giants send Robbie Ray to the bump.
Let’s start with this.
So, that’s probably not good for a guy who has thrown 159.2 innings after throwing just 60 last season and 3.1 the season prior. It’s a significant velocity drop. After posting a 26.8% K% with a 9.2% BB% in the first half, Ray has a 17.4% K% with a 9.9% BB% in the second half. His HR/9 has gone from 0.98 to 1.33 and his HR/FB% is up from 9.4% to 10.5%. Ray had zero strikeouts out of 23 batters faced last time out against the Brewers. In seven second-half starts, Ray has a 3.76 ERA with a 4.96 FIP, 5.19 xFIP, 45.5% Hard Hit%, and an 11.4% Barrel%. He’s allowed 11 Barrels in his last three starts alone.
So, I’m willing to take the +105 shot here with the Orioles for the 1st 5. It’s not like Dean Kremer is spectacular, but this is a ballpark that will suppress command mistakes and Kremer has made some.
That being said, I’m also looking at Over 7.5 here. Over Kremer’s last nine starts, he has a 4.07 ERA with a 4.17 FIP in 55.1 innings of work. He’s got four starts of 7+ innings with one or zero runs allowed. He also has four starts with 4+ runs allowed, including seven in his most recent start.
The Giants do have a very strong bullpen, so I’m counting on Ray to help us out there. The Orioles, on the other hand, have a 4.48 ERA and a 4.26 FIP this month, as injuries and trades have stripped that unit. That’s also why I’m not looking to take them for the full game.
Picks: Orioles 1st 5 (+105); Over 7.5 Runs (-107)
