MLB Best Bets Today August 8
This weekend’s MLB schedule is rather interesting, as we only have three interleague series and six rivalry series between division foes. The one with the most intrigue is probably in Pittsburgh, where the Reds try to keep pace in the NL Wild Card standings. The headline-grabbing series will obviously be Astros vs. Yankees, but all three interleague series are intriguing with Phillies vs. Rangers, Red Sox vs. Padres, and Blue Jays vs. Dodgers. Personally, I think Mets vs. Brewers is the best series of the weekend.
As usual on a Friday, the slate is made up of nothing but night games, so plenty of time to handicap today’s card.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 8:
Cincinnati Reds (-121, 7.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates
6:40 p.m. ET
Chase Burns and Mitch Keller are the listed hurlers here, as the Reds look to get back the game they lost last night. While Keller is still a solid pitcher, he’s no Paul Skenes and Burns is no Brady Singer, so it seems like a better matchup right off the rip.
Burns is still looking for his first MLB win, so that should be a motivating factor for his team as we keep going forward. He’s worked 28.1 innings over seven starts and has a 6.04 ERA, but he also has a 3.61 xERA and a 2.90 FIP. He’s gotten unlucky with a .394 BABIP against and a 54.9% LOB% – two areas that should be ripe for positive regression quickly, especially for a guy with that kind of skill set.
Burns has struck out 36.4% of opposing batters, but the hard contact he has allowed has resulted in a lot of hits. The Reds are a really stout defensive team, so that should help his numbers improve sooner rather than later. Burns has 97th percentile fastball velo with elite Chase%, Whiff%, and K% metrics.
Keller has allowed 11 runs over his last three starts. His last one did come in Colorado, but he experienced a velocity decrease and also noticeable drops in his release point and arm angle. Maybe it was a one-off being in Colorado trying to get more tilt on his pitches, but he’s allowed four homers in his last 13 innings with a .327/.403/.636 slash and just a 12/7 K/BB ratio.
Keller has increased his fastball usage of late and that’s one of the better pitch types for the Reds, as they are a slightly above average lineup against four-seamers, but have struggled badly against cutters and sinkers. Keller has primarily been a two-pitch guy lately with fastballs and sweepers. Hopefully that bodes well for the Reds in this one.
The Reds should have a lead late and Terry Francona has leveraged his relievers well during Cincinnati’s push over the last month or so. I like them tonight.
Pick: Reds -121
Philadelphia Phillies (-137, 7.5) at Texas Rangers
8:05 p.m. ET
The Rangers are trying to make a big push in the AL Wild Card standings and the Phillies are trying to maintain their grasp on first place in the NL East. So, that makes this a big series in the Lone Star State, as every game gets magnified for teams in the postseason hunt.
We’ve got a terrific pitching matchup here with Cristopher Sanchez and Merrill Kelly. Kelly was just acquired by the Rangers at the Trade Deadline and had a very impressive first start against the Mariners. He gave up two runs on four hits in 5.2 innings with six strikeouts and just his second start with zero walks since May 7. What really stood out to me is that Kelly had a 21.7% SwStr% with his new team and a 51.4% Chase Rate.
The Phillies are a more disciplined team than the Mariners, but those were both season highs for Kelly. Teams usually like to make some tweaks when they acquire a guy and maybe the Rangers have unlocked more swing-and-miss upside, especially after Kelly’s last four starts for the D-Backs had single-digit SwStr% marks.
The Rangers are coming around against lefties, as they have a .328 wOBA with a 112 wRC+ against southpaws over the last 14 days. Sanchez is a tough one to face, but his 83% LOB% is on the high side and he has had worse K and BB metrics on the road. Speaking of the road, the Phillies are averaging better than 5.1 runs per game at home and 4.25 runs per game on the road. Hell, the Phillies even lost a road series to the White Sox at the end of last month.
Texas has been one of the league’s top home teams this season, as they’ve enjoyed Globe Life Field a lot more than being out on the road. Sanchez is a tough guy to want to go against, but the Rangers are winning a lot of close games lately and I really think Kelly was a terrific addition.
Pick: Rangers +113
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (-137, 8.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
It’s pretty gross to see a 25-cent straddle on a favorite under -140, but welcome to baseball betting in the legal markets with increased tax rates and fewer price-sensitive customers. Nevertheless, take advantage of your ability to shop around as this is just what DK is dealing these days. You can find better prices in other places.
Anyway, Seth Lugo and Joe Ryan are the listed hurlers here, as the Royals and Twins get back to work following yesterday’s off day. Credit to the depleted Twins, who won their series in Detroit with a resounding 9-4 victory on Wednesday. I think this is a bit of a tough spot, as they’re now back at home. They were traveling to Cleveland on Trade Deadline day and had a six-game roadie. Now they’re back with family and friends and the realities of the situation are probably much more prevalent.
The Royals have had a brutal start to the second half from a strength of schedule point of view, playing the Marlins, Cubs, Guardians (including a doubleheader), Braves, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. And through it all, they’ve gone 10-8 with a +14, which is pretty impressive. Now that the schedule lightens up a bit, I think they’re a play-on team. Honestly, an 8-18 June is why this team is where they are. They’re 49-40 otherwise.
Lugo has been a regression candidate for a while, but it hasn’t really come to fruition yet. He has a 3.06 ERA with a 4.91 xERA and a 4.47 FIP in his 123.1 innings of work. It helps that 13 of the 19 homers he has allowed have been solo shots. But, he’s a guy that simply gets by with a deep arsenal of pitches and a lot of veteran knowhow. That may very well be enough tonight.
Ryan was not dealt at the Trade Deadline, as some thought he’d be. He was decent in his last start against Cleveland with a quality start, but the stuff didn’t look explosive at all and his fastball velocity was down. In fact, it was his lowest average fastball velo since April 20. As a guy over 50% fastball usage, that seems like a problem.
With Minnesota’s decimated bullpen due to the Trade Deadline, I think the Royals have a late-inning edge here. These two starters could very well cancel out, or I wonder if we’re seeing an issue with Ryan, whose season ended in August last year and he missed 3.5 weeks in August back in 2023.
Pick: Royals +112
