MLB Best Bets Today July 11

Sixteen games are on the MLB slate for Friday, as a double dip between the Guardians and White Sox adds another game to what was already scheduled. Game 1 of that doubleheader serves as the only day game on the docket, as everything else starts at 7:05 p.m. ET or later.

With the All-Star Break coming up after Sunday’s games are completed, you may not get fully engaged efforts from all of the teams, especially those that have really struggled lately or have fallen well short of expectations. Others may be hyper-motivated to bank some wins or a ride a high note into the hiatus. It has to be considered on a case-by-case basis to say the least.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 11:

Cleveland Guardians (-119, 9) at Chicago White Sox – Game 1

3:10 p.m. ET

I typically don’t like playing doubleheaders because there can be some uncertainty as to who is in and who is out for the lineups, not to mention the bullpen usage, but I liked the matchup with Logan Allen against Jonathan Cannon last night and I like the Allen vs. Shane Smith matchup in Game 1.

Sorry for the short notice here and the limited lead time, but I fully expect Cleveland to go all out to win Game 1 and extend the win streak to four games. A lot of my handicap yesterday did have to do with fading Cannon, but Smith has been struggling for quite a while now. Dating back to May 16, a stretch of nine starts, he’s allowed 35 runs on 42 hits in 40.1 innings of work. Only 29 are earned, leaving him with “just” a 6.47 ERA to go with a 5.14 FIP. He’s walked 22 batters in that span against 38 strikeouts, but he’s only struck out two batters in three of his last four starts.

In those last four starts, by the way, he’s allowed 22 runs in just over 15 innings of work. He’s not throwing the ball well at all right now and Cleveland’s bats got going a bit in Houston. Plus, they’ll be able to mobilize their best lineup by virtue of facing a righty.

Allen owns a 4.07 ERA with a 4.46 xERA and a 4.44 FIP, so his full-season numbers aren’t too far off of Smith’s, but he’s been better of late with a 3.41 ERA over his last 29 innings. His FIP is a bit high because of the five homers he’s allowed a low strikeout rate, but he’s also faced some pretty decent lineups in that stretch. The White Sox are not what I would call a decent lineup.

So, I like the Guardians in Game 1 and also Allen Over 16.5 Outs Recorded at -115. It’s juicy, but he’s gone Over that in four of his last five starts and Stephen Vogt will try to push him as far as he can with two games to play today.

Picks: Guardians -119; Logan Allen (CLE) Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115)

Cleveland Guardians (-126, 8) at Chicago White Sox – Game 2

8:10 p.m. ET

Like I said above, I was really interested in fading Jonathan Cannon yesterday and that remains the same today. In fact, with Gavin Williams, who I believe is clearly better than Allen, on the hill, I’m surprised to see this line lower than yesterday’s.

Here’s what I wrote about Cannon yesterday that still applies today:

This probably isn’t the best matchup for a 6-foot-6 sinkerball guy like Cannon. Lefties own a .283/.351/.493 slash with a .364 wOBA against him, which is typically what you’ll find from guys with his arsenal. I’ll be curious to see if the White Sox change things up and go with an opener tonight or not since he’ll get three lefties right out of the chute. In games where Cannon has been a straight starter, he’s allowed a .290/.360/.479 slash with a 5.09 ERA in 58.1 innings. In two bulk outings with an opener, he’s allowed a .200/.245/.380 slash and has a 1.98 ERA.

That’s because the first time through the order, Cannon has allowed a .337/.407/.642 slash with a .444 wOBA. He’s given up 17 runs over those 22.2 innings with just a 13/10 K/BB ratio. In other words, assuming he remains the starter, the Guardians have the opportunity to start fast and play from in front, which should help them ride this recent momentum wave.

Yesterday I said that Cannon MUST START for this bet to have action and it’s the same thing for me today in the nightcap. It’s entirely possible that the White Sox slot in an opener, depending on how Game 1 goes. Cleveland needs the ability to jump on Cannon early, if possible.

Williams is coming off of a dynamite effort against the Tigers with eight strikeouts over six one-hit innings. He went toe-to-toe with Tarik Skubal and gave Cleveland a real chance to win, which they did squander late. Prior to that, he struggled with the Cubs and Blue Jays, but those are two of the league’s better offenses. He had six shutout against a slumping Giants offense prior to that.

To me, I don’t think that the White Sox will be as engaged as Cleveland should be today. The Guardians had a 10-game losing streak and need to make up ground. They still feel like they’re a playoff contender. The White Sox have twice as many losses (62) as wins (31) entering today and I think they’re just excited to get away from it all for a while.

Even though my article this season has been Action, just for the sake of simplicity, today’s pick has the caveat that Jonathan Cannon MUST START, which is under the Game Lines section on DraftKings. The Guardians are -126 with that option. 

Pick: Guardians -126 (Jonathan Cannon (CWS) MUST START)

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (-114, 9)

8:15 p.m. ET

A loss in extra innings to the A’s last night made for a really long night for the Braves. They arrived in St. Louis at 4:23 a.m. local time, losing two hours with the time difference over the 3:25 flight. Yes, it’s a chartered 757 and yes it’s far more comfortable than travel for us commoners, but still.

For a Braves team that is not meeting expectations and is nowhere near playoff contention, I really don’t think they’re going to be all that interested this weekend against the Cardinals. I mentioned that against the A’s and of course I happened to pick the one game where the offense showed up and tattooed Mitch Spence, but the Braves still lost two of three and have not won consecutive games since June 23-24.

And, frankly, they’ve only won three games since that series against the Mets anyway. This is a team absolutely limping into the All-Star Break. They’re in a position to be a seller for the first time in a long time and that’s not where they want to be.

Grant Holmes has been throwing the ball well, which does give me some pause. He has not allowed more than three runs in a start since May 7, but he has walked 14 batters over his last four starts. He’s facing a Cardinals team that has picked it back up offensively against righties, posting a .336 wOBA and a 117 wRC+ over the last two weeks.

Matthew Liberatore has a 3.70 ERA with a 3.78 xERA and a 3.22 FIP as he looks to finish a terrific first half on a high note. After a trio of rocky starts from May 30 to June 11, Liberatore has allowed six runs over his last four starts covering 24 innings of work. He’s only allowed a .288 wOBA in 48 home innings this season, where he has a 38/7 K/BB ratio.

I’ll take the Cardinals as a short home favorite in this one against what should be a weary, annoyed, ready-for-a-break Braves bunch.

Pick: Cardinals -114