MLB Best Bets Today July 18
The MLB season resumes today, as teams get back to work after the All-Star Break. It is a day to tread lightly in my opinion, as some guys are happy to be back on the field and others probably wish that the time off lasted a few more days. That’s true of some teams as a whole in all likelihood. Also, you have some pitchers that might be a little bit rusty and you’ll have some guys over the next few days that maybe haven’t pitched in a week and a half or so.
Managers try to set their rotations up to have everybody on as regular of a turn as possible, but it doesn’t always work out that way, so keep that in mind as you handicap the slate over the next several days.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 18:
Sacramento Athletics at Cleveland Guardians (-132, 8)
7:10 p.m. ET
The A’s start the second half in Cleveland against the Guardians, as they’re back in the Eastern Time Zone following a nine-game homestand and the All-Star Break. The A’s have some rather large home/road splits this season, as they’ve batted .261/.332/.428 at home with a .331 wOBA, but own a .235/.300/.404 slash with a .308 wOBA on the road. They’ve scored over a run per game less away from the hitter haven that is their temporary home ballpark.
As for the Guardians, well, they face a lefty today, so that stacks the deck against them. Cleveland did play very well heading into the All-Star Break, winning six of seven off of their 10-game losing streak and I’m hoping that they’ll play well over a very manageable stretch in the next 13 games.
But, JP Sears could be a tough customer for them. Sears has a 4.79 ERA with a 4.00 xERA and a 4.88 FIP, but his problems have mostly been at home, like so many A’s pitchers. Sears has allowed a .269/.330/.585 slash at home with a .387 wOBA compared to a .245/.289/.382 slash with a .294 wOBA on the road. His 4.14 ERA is a bit misleading, as he’s absolutely pitched better away from home, but maybe hasn’t had the luck. He has a 6.24 FIP at home and a 3.80 FIP on the road and now faces a Cleveland lineup that has been putrid against lefties this season.
Sears has also thrown the ball well in his two July starts, holding the opposition to a .175 BA with a .244 wOBA. That’s a fairly similar picture to what Slade Cecconi has done in his two July starts with four runs on 11 hits and a 14/4 K/BB ratio over 13 innings of work. Cecconi has only allowed more than three runs in a start once since joining the Guardians rotation and they’ve been able to generate a lot of swings and misses with his arsenal.
Both bullpens are well-rested here, which probably favors the Guardians more, but should help both teams out.
Pick: A’s/Guardians Under 8 (-115)
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-112, 8.5)
8:05 p.m. ET
Reese Olson and Patrick Corbin are the listed starters in this one. The Tigers were well-represented at the All-Star Game, so a lot of guys didn’t really get a break, but none of them had great showings in the Midsummer Classic, so I’m sure they’re eager to get back into the swing of things.
Olson sports a 2.95 ERA with a 3.83 xERA and a 3.20 FIP over his 11 starts and 58 innings. He’s made two starts since coming off of the IL and has allowed three runs on 12 hits over 9.1 innings of work. He’s only struck out four of the 40 batters that he has faced, but he’s had a Hard Hit% under 40% in each of those outings, so the command seems to be okay. He’s a guy with just a 6.9% Barrel% on the year, so he’s done a terrific job of limiting the most penal contact.
Corbin has a 4.15 ERA with a 4.61 xERA and a 4.35 FIP in his 17 starts over 93.1 innings. That’s the best season he’s had since 2019, but the numbers are still pretty pedestrian. The Tigers are also a top-five offense against lefties this season and a top-10 offense on the road. Detroit’s .321 road wOBA is sixth behind the Mariners, Yankees, Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Brewers. Their .336 wOBA against LHP trails only the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees.
So, this should be a good matchup for the Motor City Kitties and Texas ranks 25th in wOBA against RHP, despite a pretty low 21.4% K%. Detroit’s bullpen had really struggled entering the All-Star Break, but I think a few days off came at the perfect time for them.
Pick: Tigers -108
