MLB Best Bets Today July 4

The MLB slate started very bright and early today, as all 30 teams are set to take the field on the July 4 holiday. It is a bit of a messy card with a wide range of starters and very few aces on the hill, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find some betting opportunities. Hope you enjoy the day with friends and family, or maybe even at a baseball game!

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 4:

Texas Rangers (-118, 8.5) at San Diego Padres

6:40 p.m. ET

The Rangers and Padres meet for some interleague action at Petco Park this weekend. Things get started with Kumar Rocker and Randy Vasquez, as both teams come in following an off day. These two pitchers are opposites in terms of regression signs. Rocker has a 6.13 ERA with a 5.55 xERA, 4.07 FIP, and a 3.77 xFIP. Vasquez, meanwhile, has a 3.84 ERA with a 5.59 xERA, 5.40 FIP, and a 5.71 xFIP.

The market has responded to these two sets of numbers by flipping the favorite in this game from where the line opened. I certainly get the sentiment and those are numbers that I definitely use to look for some potential edges, but I’ll be on the Padres here.

Vasquez has more margin for error at home as a fly ball pitcher who can use the big park and the atmospheric conditions to his advantage. It is a day game, so I guess the ball might carry a bit better, but I’m not overly concerned. The Padres have been way better on the whole at home, owning a 25-14 record in the friendly confines compared to a 21-26 mark at home.

I also really love this bullpen and a day off is a good thing to get everybody rested and back in their normal roles.

The Rangers are just 17-25 away from home compared to 26-19 at home, so we’ll see how they do in this series and on this 10-game road trip to finish up the first half of the season. Rocker has pitched well in his last three starts against the White Sox, Pirates, and Mariners, but the Padres are still a very talented group in my mind, despite some of their recent struggles.

Rocker has allowed a .218/.253/.264 slash with a .234 wOBA in 23 home innings and a .400/.472/.680 slash with a .484 wOBA in 16.2 road innings. A small sample to be sure, and a lot of that damage came back in April, but I still don’t see a reason for a lesser team and a comparable at best starter to be favored here, even with the statistical signs that are present.

Pick: Padres -103

Milwaukee Brewers (-131, 8) at Miami Marlins

7:10 p.m. ET

The Brewers and Marlins fire up a weekend set and it could be a bit of a sluggish start for Milwaukee. They were rained out on Tuesday in Queens, so they played a doubleheader on Wednesday and then lost in very tough fashion on Thursday. Milwaukee arrived in Miami at 3:16 a.m. this morning after flying out of Newark, so that had to be a slow, annoying bus ride from Queens for a 12:30 a.m. flight after how the evening transpired.

The Marlins played yesterday as well, though their game was done earlier. They’re still riding a high with wins in nine of their last 10. So, we’ll see what happens in this one tonight, but my focus is on the total.

Sandy Alcantara is having the season from hell. The right-hander has a 6.98 ERA with a 4.91 xERA and a 4.69 FIP over 80 innings of work across 16 starts. Alcantara has a 54.9% LOB%, which is simply not sustainable for anybody. I picked a random year, but among qualified pitchers dating back to 1990, there are only four LOB% marks under 60% and the lowest is Jordan Lyles from his miserable 2023 season at 56.3%. Most of the guys with super low numbers had terrible K% marks. Alcantara’s isn’t great, but his stuff is better than these other guys on the list.

He’s also been far better at home than his 5.03 ERA would suggest. He’s allowed a .222/.289/.368 slash with a .291 wOBA in 48.1 innings at home. Also, in the month of June, he allowed a .246/.276/.412 slash with a .295 wOBA. He still had a 4.34 ERA, but cut down on the walks in a big way. He’s trending in the right direction.

And what a job the Brewers have done with Quinn Priester. He’s got a 3.35 ERA with a 3.70 xERA and a 3.98 FIP in his 78 innings of work. I talked about this the other day playing the Marlins Under, Miami scores more than a run higher per game on the road than at home, so this should be a good spot and a good matchup for Priester, who has only allowed eight home runs and has a 57.8% GB%. The Brewers are one of the league’s top defensive teams and that has certainly helped with a .265 BABIP against.

This is an Under game in my estimation.

Pick: Brewers/Marlins Under 8 (-106)