MLB Best Bets Today June 7
There are 14 games on the card for Friday, one short of what we typically see. That’s because this weekend features the London games between the Mets and Phillies, so that will be a two-game series on Saturday and Sunday across the pond. That leaves us with 28 teams in action and only one game threatened by the rain, with Mariners/Royals in question.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for June 7:
Cleveland Guardians (-115, 7.5) at Miami Marlins
7:10 p.m. ET
The Guardians have said all season long that they treat every game like a playoff game. I guess we’ll see if that theory is true when they start off a road trip against the lowly Miami Marlins. Cleveland just split a rain-shortened series with the Royals and didn’t play very crisp baseball on Thursday afternoon after the rainout, including a rare blown lead.
It’ll be Logan Allen and Ryan Weathers here and Weathers’ numbers are demonstrably better than Allen’s, hence the short line here. Weathers has actually been really solid with a 3.41 ERA and a 3.82 FIP in his 68.2 innings of work. However, Weathers now takes on the 10th-ranked team in wRC+ against lefties over the last 30 days, so this is a bit of a tougher assignment.
The Marlins, meanwhile, have a 74 wRC+ against southpaws over the last 30 days, which should bode well for Allen. The left-hander has struggled with a 5.83 ERA and a 5.24 FIP, but he gave up seven runs against the Rockies last time out and Coors Field starts typically aren’t good barometers, especially for more of a pitch-to-contact guy like Allen.
Marlins Park should be a much more favorable venue for him and he also gets a Marlins lineup that is struggling in this split.
Ultimately, if you’re giving me Cleveland’s bullpen at -115 when they’re not at an extreme starting pitcher disadvantage, that is hard to pass up. They did use five relievers yesterday, but they’re very adept at managing innings and properly leveraging relievers. That has been one of the best things about Stephen Vogt this season.
I like Cleveland at a short price tonight with a bounce back mentality in the first game of an eight-game roadie.
Pick: Guardians -115
Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox (-112, 8)
8:10 p.m. ET
The White Sox are looking to end a 14-game losing streak tonight and they’ll send ace Garrett Crochet to the mound. The Red Sox will counter with the less-heralded Cooper Criswell. The White Sox are actually favored in this game, at least for now, which would mark the third time this season that they’ve been in that role. Both games have come with Crochet on the hill and they are 2-0 in those games with a 6-3 win over Cleveland and a 2-0 win over Washington.
The difference in those games is that the opposing starters were Carlos Carrasco and Patrick Corbin. Criswell comes in with a solid 3.92 ERA and a 3.57 FIP over his 43.2 innings of work. He’s only walked 10 of 181 batters and he’s kept the ball on the ground at a 48.4% clip with his arsenal of sinkers and changeups. With the hard contact he has allowed, I would have expected a sizable difference between his wOBA and xwOBA, but that is not the case at all, as he’s actually looking for a touch of positive regression in the xwOBA department.
I can’t deny that Crochet has been great lately. So has the Red Sox offense, which ranks first in wRC+ over the last seven days and seventh over the last 14 days. They’ve come alive a little bit after a prolonged rough patch and hopefully that confidence will roll into tonight.
Ultimately, this is another spot where I’m backing a bullpen in a closely-lined game. The White Sox pen is and has been awful throughout the season. Boston’s bullpen ranks second in fWAR for the season and second in FIP. If we look at smaller samples, they’re still fifth in FIP over the last 30 days and fifth over the last 14 days.
I still think Criswell can match Crochet or maybe even better him with the differences between the two teams, but the Red Sox definitely hold the upper hand in the late innings. Hopefully they’ll have a lead to protect, but as great as Crochet is, Boston’s offense is better and the bullpen is better and that makes it worth it to me.
Pick: Red Sox -108
