MLB Best Bets Today May 16

Happy Interleague Weekend in Major League Baseball. We only have two traditional matchups in each league, with a Pennsylvania battle between the Pirates and Phillies and a Rockies vs. Diamondbacks NL West showdown in the Senior Circuit. The Junior Circuit has the Tigers vs. Blue Jays and then the AL West battle continues between the Astros and Rangers.

As far as the interleague matchups go, we have a lot of geographic rivalries. Game 1 of the storied Ohio Cup rivalry between the Guardians and Reds, the North Side vs. the South Side in Chicago with White Sox vs. Cubs, the I-70 Throwdown between the Cardinals and Royals, the Beltway Battle between the Nationals and Orioles, the I-5 Clash between the Angels and Dodgers, and, of course, the Subway Series between the Mets and Yankees, as Juan Soto returns to Yankee Stadium.

It should be a great weekend on the diamond.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 16:

Cleveland Guardians (-120, 9) at Cincinnati Reds

6:40 p.m. ET

NOTE: Game moved to a 5:10 p.m. ET start due to weather arriving this evening

Everybody will be tuned in to Game 1 of the Ohio Lottery Ohio Cup series between the Guardians and Reds. Tanner Bibee gets the start for Cleveland and Brady Singer gets the call for the Reds. Admittedly, I am concerned about a rain threat in this one, as Kevin Roth from Rotogrinders is projecting a mid-game delay or even a shortened game. Be sure to check the house rules at your preferred sportsbook.

Personally, I’m looking at the 1st 5 here, even though I definitely don’t mind a full-game play on Cleveland with a full bullpen following yesterday’s off day. But, the crux of this play for me is that the Guardians are going to be able to run eight or nine left-handed bats at Brady Singer, depending on how they set things up for tonight against old pal Terry Francona.

It is no secret that the right-handed Singer has been far more effective against righties than lefties over the course of his career. Left-handed sticks have  a.260/.340/.444 slash with a .341 wOBA compared to righties with a .262/.306/.377 slash and a .298 wOBA. So far this season, Singer has 95 PA against LHB and 83 PA against RHB. Lefties are batting .247/.316/.482 with a .345 wOBA, while righties are batting .250/.313/.382 with a .309 wOBA.

Last season, the splits were even more telling, as lefties hit .291/.367/.488 with a .370 wOBA. Righties batted just .208/.252/.311 with a .249 wOBA. And Singer just got trucked by a Houston lineup lacking a left-handed presence, so I’m definitely concerned about where his command is.

Meanwhile, slowly but surely, I think Bibee is figuring it out. The swings and misses still aren’t there, but he hasn’t allowed a homer in two straight games and has only allowed six earned runs over his last four starts after getting pummeled by Baltimore on April 17. Not that they are great numbers, but he’s had a Chase% over 20% in three of his last four starts after doing that in just one of his first four starts.

Over the last 14 days, the Guardians have a 104 wRC+, while the Reds have an 81 wRC+. Add in all of the platoon advantages that Cleveland is likely to have here and I think they’re going to play from in front tonight. We’ll see if they get the chance to get the whole game in, but the crux of my argument is leveraging all the left-handed bats against Singer.

Pick: Guardians 1st 5 (-120)

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies (-238, 9)

6:45 p.m. ET

The Commonwealth Clash between the Pirates and Phillies begins with a couple of southpaws, as Andrew Heaney and Ranger Suarez come together. My focus in this one is a player prop, as Heaney has racked up 19 of his 36 strikeouts in two of his eight starts. He had 10 strikeouts against the Yankees on April 6 and nine against the Angels in a revenge game for him on April 23. In three starts since, he’s struck out five batters and has issued 10 walks.

The control has slipped for Heaney to say the least. Outside of those two starts with big strikeout numbers, he has not posted a SwStr% higher than 8.4%. The Braves had a season-low 10.3% Chase% last time out. The Yankees and Angels swung through a bunch of pitches in the zone in those two games, posting Z-Contact% marks of 79.4% and 64.9%. Over his other six starts, Heaney’s lowest Z-Contact% is 89.5%.

The Phillies have the fourth-highest Z-Contact% in the league at 87.3%. The Yankees are 24th and the Angels are 27th. The Phillies do rank about league average in Chase% and SwStr%, but Heaney’s stuff quality does seem to be deteriorating a little bit. The Phillies are also pretty aggressive with pitches in the zone, as their 15.5% CStr% is the fifth-lowest in the league. If Heaney tries to make some adjustments to get in the zone and cut back on the walks, the Phillies should be aggressive.

We’re paying a bit of juice on this one, but there is also the possibility that there is a rain delay early in the game that wipes out one or both starters. Most house rules state that player props are action the second a guy throws a pitch or has a plate appearance.

Even if the rain does stay away, Heaney’s not missing many bats and the Phillies have some good metrics in key areas. Aside from the Yankees and Angels starts, Heaney has gone Over this prop total once and that was back on April 12 in a game where he only had a 6.7% SwStr%.

Pick: Andrew Heaney (PIT) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

New York Mets at New York Yankees (-148, 9)

7:05 p.m. ET

Tylor Megill and Carlos Rodon are set to get the Subway Series underway on a sticky night in the Bronx. Rain will be hovering around first pitch and the humidity will tick up into the 85% range during the game.

Both hurlers have solid numbers this season. Megill steps into this start with a 3.10 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and a 2.97 FIP, as he’s bumped up his K% a little and has done a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the park. He has struggled a bit over his last three starts with 11 runs allowed on 14 hits over 16 innings of work, but there’s some bad batted ball and sequencing luck involved there. He still has 22 strikeouts against six walks in that span, so he’s still been missing bats and filling up the zone.

Megill had some built-in regression that seems to have hit, especially giving up a home run in each of his last three starts, but I think this is a pretty good matchup for him. The Nationals, Cardinals, and Cubs aren’t swing-and-miss offenses. The Yankees are and will expand the zone a little bit more.

Rodon has been good for the Yankees with a 3.29 ERA, 2.82 xERA, and a 3.65 FIP in his nine starts over 54.2 innings. I don’t think his .208 BABIP has a lot of staying power, as his previous career-best is .242 and his next best is .267. In this start, he draws a Mets lineup that is fourth in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties, so this will be a very stiff test. 

Over nine starts, Rodon has faced the Athletics, Padres, Orioles, Guardians, Rays, Giants, Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Brewers. Those lineups currently rank 8th, 12th, 30th, 20th, 28th, 18th, 6th, 13th, and 22nd against LHP. The A’s scored four runs on eight hits last time out with two homers and the Tigers had six runs over six innings. So, Rodon has struggled against the two top-10 offenses against lefties that he has seen. Now he gets his first top-five one.

Both bullpens are in good shape following the off day, but I think what the Mets have done against lefties is worthy of taking a shot on them at an underdog price here.

Pick: Mets +124

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-425, 9)

9:40 p.m. ET

The biggest favorite of the MLB season to date is the Diamondbacks tonight against the Rockies. It will be Corbin Burnes for the Snakes and we’ll have an MLB debut for the Rockies. That debut belongs to left-hander Carson Palmquist, a Miami (FL) product who started his college career as a closer and then moved into the starting rotation in 2022. The Rockies used a third-round pick on him in that draft and now he’s in The Show.

Palmquist is a really interesting dude. He doesn’t throw super hard, but he’s an extreme fly ball guy cut from the Joe Ryan mold, except he throws with the other hand. His fastball characteristics are similar and he’s able to generate a lot of swing and miss without premier velocity. He also has a deep pitch mix that has generated strikeouts at every minor league level.

He’s had his share of walks, but pitching in Triple-A is brutal with so many good ballparks and we see a lot of guys come to the big leagues and improve their control with better catcher defense and more attention paid to game-specific matchups as opposed to just developing pitches. We do have some Statcast data from Triple-A and Palmquist has allowed Hard Hit% of 37.4% and 34.1% in his Albuquerque stints. I like the profile here against a Diamondbacks offense that is second in wOBA against RHP and third in wRC+, but 13th in wOBA and 14th in wRC+ against lefties. Being left-handed should help Palmquist here.

Burnes quelled any concerns about his barking shoulder with seven shutout innings against the Dodgers last time out. He was efficient with five strikeouts and two walks, a 63.2% GB%, and a 30% Hard Hit% with no Barrels. Obviously the Rockies are pathetic on offense, so this should be a good opportunity for Burnes to keep the good vibes going. His 12.1% SwStr% against LA was the second-highest of the season for him and highest since his first start back on April 1.

So, there are a few things I like here. I like No Run First Inning at -110. Palmquist is an unfamiliar lefty with a funky delivery and some true deception. That should befuddle Arizona for a little bit. I think he’s a fun arm to follow going forward. And, Burnes, of course, has been one of the league’s most consistent starters for a while.

Next, it is juicy, but I like the 1st 5 Under 5.5 at -135. I could even talk myself into 1st 5 Under 4.5 at +120, but Palmquist is a fly ball guy and I wonder how turning the lineup over will go for him. Could be a homer in there. I don’t think the Rockies do much of anything off of Burnes.

Picks: Rockies/Diamondbacks No Run First Inning (NRFI) (DK lists this as “Under 0.5 Runs”) -110; 1st 5 Under 5.5 (-135)