MLB Best Bets Today May 23

Lots of baseball on the Friday slate and just about every game will be played late. The Orioles and Red Sox play two today and it will be a day-night affair, so that’s the only afternoon contest we have on the docket. Otherwise, we have plenty of time to handicap the card and seek out some top plays.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 23:

Chicago Cubs (-115, 8.5) at Cincinnati Reds

6:40 p.m. ET

Hunter Greene makes his return from the IL for the Reds in this one, as Matthew Boyd makes his 10th start of the season for the Cubbies. Greene did not make any rehab starts with his groin injury prior to getting the nod here in this one. We’ll see how long he’s able to go, but I do think he has the chance to be effective.

He’s been great this season with a 2.36 ERA, 2.45 xERA, and a 3.06 FIP in his 45.2 innings of work. Against a Cubs lineup that has been very good at working counts, Greene’s 34.7% K% and 4.5% BB% are two very big weapons. Also, the Cubs have struggled with what I would consider “premier” velocity. Against pitches of 97+ mph, the Cubs are batting just .160 with a .269 SLG and a .235 wOBA. In that subset, they are 29th in BA (Brewers), 27th in SLG, and 29th in wOBA. The Brewers are actually last in all three categories, so keep that in mind when Greene faces them because he eventually will.

Greene probably won’t work too deep here, but the Reds bullpen is very well-rested. Cincy didn’t play yesterday and only four relievers were needed combined across Tuesday and Wednesday.

Boyd projects really well against the Reds lineup as well. Cincy is 22nd in wOBA at .281 against southpaws, posting a slash line of .206/.297/.326. They do have a 10.3% BB% in that split, but Boyd hasn’t walked a batter in three straight starts and has only issued 13 free passes over 51.1 innings. He’s also struck out 53 batters, as he has a 2.98 ERA with a 3.40 xERA and a 3.84 FIP.

The Cubs were also idle yesterday, so their bullpen is in very good shape, as they only used mop-up guy Chris Flexen on Tuesday and used just three relievers on Wednesday.

Pick: Cubs/Reds Under 8.5 (-112)

Los Angeles Dodgers (-115, 8.5) at New York Mets

7:10 p.m. ET

After wrapping up a series at home against the rival Diamondbacks, the Dodgers find themselves on the opposite coast to take on the Mets in Queens. It will be Clayton Kershaw on the bump for the visitors and Griffin Canning is slated to throw the first pitch of this one.

Canning has been an outstanding story this season for the Mets, but it is getting dangerously close to being time to pay the piper. Canning has a 2.47 ERA with a 3.75 xERA and a 3.86 FIP over his nine starts across 47.1 innings. He has a 91.3% LOB%, which is one obvious area of regression. But, it’s hardly the only one.

Canning is fortunate to have had such a big ground ball bump, as he ranks in the 90th percentile in GB%. But he also ranks in the 9th percentile in average exit velocity and 10th in Hard Hit%. With a below average BB% and a K% that probably doesn’t have a ton of staying power to it, even with a revamped pitch usage plan, Canning is sitting on some blow-up starts in my opinion.

He’s been able to stave it off in starts against the Yankees, Cubs, and Diamondbacks in his last three times out, but some really talented offense is going to give him an outing that hurts his ERA and I think it could very well be the Dodgers here. A lot of Canning’s hardest-hit contact has come on the slider, where he has allowed a .279 BA and a .412 SLG. The Dodgers lead MLB in batting value on sliders per Statcast. Canning’s fastball has always been a hittable pitch, so if the plan is to attack with more of those and fewer sliders, I’ll take my chances with that as well.

Oh, and for good measure, if Canning’s solution is to throw more changeups, the Dodgers rank fourth in batting value against those.

Pick: Dodgers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+114)

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros (-125, 8.5)

8:10 p.m. ET

Emerson Hancock and Ryan Gusto are the listed hurlers here, as the Mariners and Astros add another chapter to their AL West rivalry. The Astros drew first blood in the big four-game series last night with a lopsided 9-2 win and hope to move another game closer in the standings tonight.

Hancock has made seven starts and owns a 6.21 ERA with a 6.07 xERA and a 5.39 FIP. His 4.22 xFIP suggests that better days may be ahead, as he has a 19.4% HR/FB% and a .349 BABIP against. Time will tell, but I have more than enough concerns about him today. He only worked 18.1 road innings last season, but allowed a .304/.337/.532 slash with a .371 wOBA and a 7.36 ERA. He’s actually been significantly better on the road this season in his small sample sizes, but still. We know that T-Mobile Park is a haven for pitchers.

Righties own a .306/.342/.458 slash against him this season with a .350 wOBA. Lefties have crushed him with a .333/.405/.606 slash and a .435 wOBA. But, last season, righties hit 10 of the 12 homers that he allowed and posted a .547 SLG. He’ll be facing a lot of righties in this Astros lineup tonight.

Gusto has been shuffled back and forth between the bullpen and rotation this season. He gave up seven runs in 2.1 innings in his last start and struggled through a relief inning six days ago. But, I really like the stuff profile and he’s known that he is starting today for a while, as the Astros are dealing with some rotation injuries. Gusto has a 4.65 ERA with a 4.51 xERA and a 4.05 FIP. He’s got good swing-and-miss upside, which is always important against the Mariners.

Over the last 14 days, the Mariners have a .207/.279/.350 slash with a .281 wOBA and the highest K% in the league at 27.4%. The offense got off to a tremendous start this season, but appears to be falling back a bit at this point in time. Houston, meanwhile, has a .268/.338/.425 slash and a .337 wOBA over the last two weeks, putting them safely in the top 10 offensively.

Houston’s high-leverage relievers are all well-rested and I think they have the advantage in a few ways tonight.

Pick: Astros -125