MLB Best Bets Today October 18:
The baseball world is still buzzing about what happened in Cleveland last night as we look ahead to today’s games. The Guardians need to make last night count with a win tonight to even up the series or they’ll face the prospect of elimination on Saturday.
The Mets do face elimination here on Friday, as the Dodgers have a 3-1 series lead following consecutive blowout wins at Citi Field. What is in store for us today on the diamond? Let’s break ‘em down.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for October 18:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130, 7.5) at New York Mets
5:08 p.m. ET (FS1)
Does the dream of a Subway Series die today? The Mets have lost 18-2 over the last two days and need to figure things out very quickly to avoid the end of their postseason run. This series has featured four wins by four or more runs, so it has lacked drama to say the least. The Dodgers have scored 27 runs over their three victories and will be gunning for another big showing today as David Peterson gets the start over Kodai Senga.
Senga is said to be a bullpen option, but skipper Carlos Mendoza and his staff feel like Peterson gives them the best chance. He appeared in Game 1 and allowed three runs (two earned) on four hits with a couple punchies and a walk over 2.1 innings of work. He has now worked 8.2 innings across four games in the playoffs with a 2.08 ERA, 3.40 FIP, and a 4.27 xFIP. He has five strikeouts against four walks in 36 batters faced.
Walks have been a huge part of this series, as I mentioned before it began and the Dodgers have been in a lot of good hitters’ counts. They drew nine more walks yesterday against Mets pitching, which really seems to be running out of gas. Senga has allowed four runs on three hits in 3.1 innings with more walks than strikeouts, so I don’t think he is a viable option in this game.
Flaherty has made two starts in the postseason with four runs on seven hits and an 8/3 K/BB ratio over 12.1 innings of work. He had a rough outing against the Padres in the NLDS on an extended layoff, but seven shutout innings in Game 1. He was pitching with a sizable lead, but he struck out six and only gave up two singles. He did give up nine hard-hit balls, so the Mets had some decent swings, including two Starling Marte Barrels that wound up outs.
At this point, I would say it’s hard to see the Mets winning this one. The Dodgers would have to work a bullpen game in Game 6 on Sunday if it came to that and they surely don’t want to run that risk, then have to ask Walker Buehler to repeat his Game 3 effort in a potential Game 7. They want to end it here and I think they will. LA has had the better bullpen, the better starting pitching, and the better offense. The Dodgers had the best wRC+ against left-handed pitching during the regular season and have a .363 OBP against lefties here in the postseason, so they’re getting on base and creating chances.
Pick: Dodgers -130
New York Yankees (-122, 7.5) at Cleveland Guardians
8:08 p.m. ET (TBS)
As a Guardians fan, my phone was blowing up last night and the Cedar Point-sized roller coaster of emotions has me feeling like I’m hungover this morning. What a sequence of events in Game 3. But, my reply afterwards to my buddies was simply this: “Win tomorrow”.
The Guardians got back in the series, but they need a win today to make it a series. And I’ll be completely and totally honest with you. I have absolutely no idea what happens today. Luis Gil hasn’t pitched since September 28. Gavin Williams hasn’t pitched since September 22.
Gil gave up six runs, including four home runs, to the Pirates in his last start and he honestly wasn’t good after jumping out to the AL Rookie of the Year favorite in that betting market. Through June 14, Gil had a 2.03 ERA with a 3.08 FIP in 14 starts. He had a high walk rate, but it hadn’t really come back to burn up until him that point. From June 15 on, he had a 5.15 ERA and a 5.32 FIP in 15 starts. So, it was legitimately a tale of two halves for him.
He has yet to pitch in the postseason and sim games can hardly simulate what it’s like to be on the mound under those bright lights, especially with what will be a very rambunctious Cleveland crowd after what transpired last night. I thought that maybe there was a chance Aaron Boone would opt to use Gil in Game 1 at home, but the Carlos Rodon decision worked out tremendously, as he was outstanding.
Williams made 16 starts in what amounted to a throwaway season for him. He only pitched 76 innings and had a 4.86 ERA, but did have a 3.67 FIP and a 4.12 xFIP, so the underlying metrics were a little bit more positive regarding his performance. He was a strikeout merchant in the minor leagues and got Gerrit Cole comparisons on the way up, for the high velocity and the strikeouts, but also for how similar his mechanics looked.
I have no idea what his release point will be like tonight, as he, too, has been throwing sim games, but that’s hardly a representation of what happens in a game, especially with Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton in the mix. Williams has had major walk issues as a big leaguer with a 10.2% BB% and that’s my biggest fear as a Guardians fan. He’s also a 53.4% fastball guy for his MLB career and has only sat 96.1 mph with the heat. He regularly sat 98-99 in the minors. Maybe the playoffs and a well-rested arm benefit him here.
This is Game 1 or Game 2 all over again for Cleveland. The bullpen is going to have to shoulder a big load. And they’re likely to have to start Ben Lively, Joey Cantillo, or an opener tomorrow. In that respect, I could see being interested in the Yankees, because I could make a case that the blow-up potential is way higher for Williams than it is for Gil.
I’m not betting the side or total, though. Gil can get erratic as well, and while Cleveland doesn’t draw as many walks, any team can hit in advantageous counts. I would say Williams Over 1.5 Walks Allowed is a good bet at -145. He went over that in 13 of his 16 regular season starts and walked a season-high four batters in 4.1 innings against the Yankees on August 22. I’m not sure how far he’ll go, but as a young guy who hasn’t pitched in a long time, nerves are a factor and I could see him trying to nibble a lot.
Pick: Gavin Williams (CLE) Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-145)
