MLB Best Bets Today September 12
Key Highlights:
- Rangers vs. Mets Prediction
- Yankees vs. Red Sox Predictions
- Diamondbacks vs. Twins Pick
Another enormous weekend on the diamond is set to begin, as we have all 30 teams in action on Friday night and some really big games with serious playoff implications. Unfortunately, we don’t have the playoff contenders playing against each other, but nearly every game on the slate matters in some way, shape, or form.
We do have another Yankees vs. Red Sox series that highlights the weekend, but we also have a lot of teams playing free and easy that could take advantage of teams that are playing a little bit tighter. With only one day game (Wrigley Field, of course), we have a lot of time to break down most of these games.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 12:
Rangers vs. Mets Prediction (-113, 7.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
Jacob deGrom will make his 110th career start at Citi Field and his first as a member of the Rangers on Friday night against Jonah Tong and the Mets. It will be the second Citi Field start of Tong’s young career, as he’s allowed four runs in each of his first two starts. In his defense, the lack of defense led to three unearned runs in his first outing, but he’s still got a 5.60 FIP with three homers allowed and four walks in the first 11 innings of his career. He’s struck out 12 of the 46 batters that he has faced, but that’s only with a 47.8% F-Strike% and a 9.3% SwStr%.
So, Tong is finding out that life in the bigs isn’t all that easy, even with his funky delivery and really good arsenal. Now he faces probably the hottest team in baseball. The Rangers fell to 63-66 on August 21 after losing to the Royals. They are 14-4 since and are now very much in the Wild Card picture, including a sweep of the Brewers to wrap up a 5-1 homestand.
Texas had yesterday off to give the relief arms a bit of a rest. They also had last Thursday off and August 28. Meanwhile, the Mets also had September 4 off, but that is the only off day that they’ve had since August 18. For a team that has dropped six in a row, it has to be exhausting right now and they could be running on fumes a bit.
The Phillies embarrassed them in a three-game sweep with a combined score of 26-10 to pretty much end the race in the NL East. The Mets are lucky that the NL Wild Card bubble is pretty weak, as they’re still up 1.5 games in that race.
deGrom continues to be very good with a 2.78 ERA and a 3.54 FIP this season. His second half numbers are elevated a bit, as he’s allowed nine homers in 43.1 innings compared to 13 in 112.1 in the first half. But, he’s still holding batters to a sub-.200 BA and actually has bumped his K% up to 32.2%.
The off day was a big deal for the Rangers, as Shawn Armstrong, Robert Garcia, and Phil Maton had all worked three of the previous four days. The Mets haven’t really been able to use their primary relievers with all of the losses, so Edwin Diaz and Tyler Rogers pitched yesterday just to get some work in. It was the first appearance for Diaz since September 5.
I’ll take a shot with deGrom in a start that probably means a lot to him in a very stressful spot for Tong and the slumping Mets.
Pick: Rangers -108
Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction (+104, 9)
7:10 p.m. ET
A one-sided handicap here for me, as Luis Gil gets the call for the Yankees against Lucas Giolito for the Red Sox. My focus is on Giolito and the stacked up regression signs in his profile over the second half.
On the whole, there are plenty of regression signs in Giolito’s profile with a 3.38 ERA, 4.96 xERA, and a 4.18 FIP over his 130.1 innings of work. But they are more noticeable in the second half in my estimation. He has a 3.41 ERA over 58 innings of work, but he also has a 4.80 FIP and a 5.04 xFIP. At least he pitched to a 3.68 FIP in the first half.
Here in the second half, Giolito’s K% is down from 21.7% to 17.3% and his BB% is up from 7.1% to 10%. His BABIP against in the second half is just .244, more than a 50-point drop from where it was in the first half. His LOB% is 80.2% in the second half, which is totally unsustainable with his low K% and the expectation of more baserunners coming as his BABIP stabilizes.
He’s also allowed a .271/.322/.421 slash and a .322 wOBA at Fenway Park compared to a .217/.292/.355 slash and a .287 wOBA on the road. So, this seems like a very good spot for the regression to hit. The Yankees finally got the lumber going last night against the Tigers, including two Aaron Judge home runs. I think they keep that offensive momentum going tonight.
Pick: Lucas Giolito (BOS) Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-119); Yankees 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+105)
Diamondbacks vs. Twins Prediction (-144, 8.5)
8:10 p.m. ET
The Diamondbacks finally get a little bit of a break on the schedule. Since August 22, their opponents have been the Reds, Brewers, Dodgers, Rangers, Rangers, Red Sox, and Giants, so all teams that are within striking distance of a playoff spot, are in one, or lead their division. Now Arizona takes on a Minnesota team just playing out the string on the season.
The Twins won three games in a row August 5-8 and sat 55-60 after the third win. They are now 64-82, so they’ve gone 9-22 in their last 31 games and have actually lost eight of their last 10. In fact, their September 7-8 wins were the first time since that three-game winning streak in early August.
Yeah, Pablo Lopez is on the mound and obviously he still commands some respect in the betting markets. But he just returned from a three-month absence and wasn’t as sharp as his pitching line would indicate. He held the Royals to two runs on six hits with four strikeouts and a walks, but he did allow 12 hard-hit balls and three Barrels for a 60% Hard Hit% and 15% Barrel%. It was his first start with three Barrels against since last September against the Angels.
He only had a 44% F-Strike% and the Diamondbacks, despite some recent struggles against RHP based on the gauntlet of pitchers that they’ve faced, are definitely a much more talented offensive club than the Royals. Even with the trades that they made, they’ve still gone 22-16 since the start of August.
In other words, Arizona is fighting. Minnesota really isn’t. Rocco Baldelli is a dead man walking in all likelihood and the Twins have a bottom-five bullpen over the last 30 days after trading their top five relievers.
Even though Brandon Pfaadt has some ghastly road splits, I think Arizona’s plus-money price is still worth it based on all of the above factors, particularly the chance to finally play an inferior opponent.
Pick: Diamondbacks +118
