MLB Best Bets Today September 19

A huge weekend of MLB action begins tonight, as we get the start of arguably the biggest series of the season between the Mariners and Astros. Several other games have postseason implications, as only three playoff berths have been clinched thus far, although some teams are very much on the doorstep of making it in.

With 15 games overall and the 5-5-5 NL/AL/interleague split, and all of them at night, it should be a good day for handicappers to dive into all the data. Also, shout-out to Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, as he makes his final home regular season start tonight against the Giants. What an incredible career he’s had.

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for September 19:

Sacramento Athletics (-112, 8.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates

6:40 p.m. ET

The road trip for the A’s continues with a trip to the Steel City, as they’ll take on the Pirates this weekend. Neither team is playing for anything but pride at this point, as a .500 finish is out of the realm of possibility. The Pirates have actually lost 11 of their last 12, so it sure seems as though they’ve packed it in for the season. The only excitement for the fans is on days when Paul Skenes or Bubba Chandler pitch.

And today is not one of those days. Mitch Keller gets the call here. It has been a rough go in the second half for Keller, as he has allowed a .284/.359/.505 slash with a .373 wOBA. Those numbers are +47, +72, +148 from the first half and his wOBA against is 90 points higher. He’s been better of late, allowing just four earned runs in his last three starts, but eight total runs and he continues to have low SwStr% marks.

Severino missed about a month with injury and has made three starts since coming back. He’s allowed eight runs on 13 hits in 15 innings, but he’s on the road here and he’s been much better there, as we all know. That’s a big reason why the A’s are favored here. Sevy has a 3.11 ERA on the road compared to a 6.51 ERA at home. His wOBA against is 82 points lower on the road and all of his other numbers are just dramatically better. His SLG is 138 points lower on the road.

Here he draws a Pirates lineup batting .159/.240/.240 against RHP over the last 14 days with a 26.2% K%. They have a .221 wOBA, which is 44 points lower than anybody else, and a 35 wRC+. Meanwhile, the A’s are second in MLB over the last 14 days against RHP with a .374 wOBA and a 138 wRC+. 

Not only that, but the A’s have the top bullpen ERA over the last 30 days at 2.66. The Pirates are fifth, but do have a xERA of 4.29. The A’s have some regression signs in the pen as well,  but I’m willing to take the chance that they’ll be ahead and their primary relievers had yesterday off to be refreshed to protect a lead.

Pick: Athletics -112

Washington Nationals at New York Mets (-218, 8.5)

7:10 p.m. ET

Andrew Alvarez lines up for the fourth start of his MLB career and Brandon Sproat will start for just the third time as these two NL East foes come together in Queens. Alvarez is your standard-issue southpaw with a fastball that Texas Highway Patrol wouldn’t even chase down and a four-pitch mix.

In three starts, Alvarez has only allowed one Barrel and has held the opposition to a 35.6% Hard Hit%. Lefties usually have some sort of funk to their delivery or something that makes them a little bit different for those seeing them for the first time. In Alvarez’s case, he has a high three-quarter arm slot with above average spin rates on both the curveball and slider. He’s very tough on lefties and I do worry a bit about the platoon split against righties here, but he does have a 56.8% GB% in his 15.2 innings thus far.

Over the last two weeks, the Mets are a below average offense against lefties with a .258 wOBA and a 66 wRC+. On the whole, they are second in wOBA in the last 30 days, but they’ve been struggling a bit lately with southpaws. Alvarez is an unknown and I am a believer in the “unfamiliar lefty” angle.

Sproat has made two starts so far with three runs allowed on just nine hits in 12 innings of work. He’s allowed just one Barrel and has a Hard Hit% against of 30.3%, so he’s stayed off the barrel against the Reds and Rangers to this point. He had 113 K in 121 innings in the minors, so I would expect a few more swings and misses as we go forward. He only allowed nine homers in the minors and just two over his final 11 starts before his call-up.

The Nationals had an offensive burst in late August and early September, but that has mostly faded away now, as they’re basically a league average offense against RHP over the last two weeks. With the Mets coming off of a big series against the Padres, and the only goal for the Nationals being a win in the next nine games to avoid 100 losses, this one has slow start potential.

Pick: Nationals/Mets Under 4.5 Runs (+100)

Miami Marlins at Texas Rangers (-158, 8)

8:05 p.m. ET

Tyler Mahle returns in the midst of a playoff chase, as the Rangers turn to the veteran righty to open up this series against the Marlins. It will be Janson Junk for Miami and Janson has pitched like junk lately. Over his last nine starts, Junk has a 6.38 ERA with a 4.48 FIP, which is only that low because he’s only allowed seven homers in that span. He has allowed a 50% Hard Hit% and a 10.8% Barrel% in 166 batted ball events.

Interestingly, loanDepot Park actually has a much higher Statcast Park Factor than Globe Life Field, but a lot of that has to do with how the park plays for doubles and triples relative to Globe Life. The ballpark in Arlington is actually better for home runs, for whatever that’s worth against Junk. Nevertheless, while it has been a pretty stingy park this season, the Rangers rotation has a lot to do with those numbers.

Mahle is returning from more than three months on the IL. He made three rehab starts and allowed five runs in his first one before looking better in the next two, but he’s a guy that had just a 18.2% K% when he went down. Junk has a 14.5% K% in that nine-start stretch, in which he’s allowed at least three runs in every one of them and six runs three times.

Back to Mahle, though, whose velo was down in his Triple-A rehab outings, I’m not sure he’ll be super sharp here, especially with a lot on the line. He also maxed out at four innings in his three rehab starts, leaving the lesser relievers in the Rangers pen to pick up some of the slack. This just feels like a game to me with a ton of balls in play thanks to limited strikeout upside and I’ll take my chances with two guys that have questionable command profiles.

Pick: Marlins/Rangers Over 8 Runs (-109)