MLB Best Bets Today September 26

Any sport is at its best when there is a lot of drama and a lot of interested observers on the edge of their seats. Well, that will be the case this weekend around Major League Baseball, as three of the six AL playoff spots have been handed out and five of the six in the NL, but we still have two division races in the Junior Circuit and a frantic race for the final Wild Card spot in the Senior Circuit.

In other words, some of tonight’s games are really, really big. Others are less big and those may be the games where you really want to hone in on the player props, where guys might take the opportunity to be a little bit more selfish in hopes of hitting some personal benchmarks. All in all, it should be a great weekend of baseball.

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for September 26:

MLB Player Props Today (0.25 units unless noted)

I’ll be looking at some different player props based on players looking for round numbers, career-highs, etc. as the week goes along. Some of these will be smaller risks with some potentially higher rewards. I think it is especially good to look at these where team success no longer matters as much as trying to hit these individual benchmarks, as players may get a little more selfish.

Note: The Cubs play the only day game today, and the wind is not blowing in for a matchup with Miles Mikolas, so Pete-Crow Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and Dansby Swanson are all players to consider in the HR market; Swanson also in the SB market, and Suzuki in the RBI department.

Michael Harris II (ATL) 1+ HR (+500)

It has not been a good season at all for Harris, but his bat has really come alive in the second half. He owns a .295/.312/.520 slash in the second half with a .352 wOBA and a 126 wRC+. On the whole, because his first half was so beyond awful, his full-season numbers are not strong at all. But, he has hit 13 of his 19 homers here in the second half. 

Mitch Keller has allowed a home run in six straight starts. Lefties have hit 12 of the 20 homers he has allowed and he’s allowed 10 of the 20 in his last 45.2 innings of work. It would be a big silver lining to the season for Harris to hit 20 homers for the first time. He hit 19 in his rookie season and hasn’t had a shot at 20 since. I don’t think he’ll squander it, whether he goes yard today or another day this weekend. Harris has a .299/.321/.565 slash with a .374 wOBA and a 141 wRC+ vs. RHP in the second half. He hit two HR on Tuesday to give himself a shot after not hitting one since August 27, so he has to be thinking about it.

Drake Baldwin (ATL) 1+ HR (+539)

If not Harris, maybe Baldwin will cap his rookie season with 20 dingers. He’s hit 15 of his 19 against RHP and, as I’ve outlined, Keller is not at his best right now. Baldwin has hit three HR in the last week to give himself a shot at 20 and isn’t a guy who strikes out or walks a lot, so he has the potential to maximize his plate appearances over the final weekend in search of his 20th.

Players one or two away from big “numbers” in the HR department:

• Shohei Ohtani (54)
• Eugenio Suarez (49)
• Pete Alonso, Jo Adell (37)
• Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Pete-Crow Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki (29)
• Matt Olson, Willy Adames (28)
• Christian Walker, Dansby Swanson, Ramon Laureano (injured), Mickey Moniak, Ben Rice (24)
• Ian Happ, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis, Bobby Witt Jr., Mike Trout (23)
• Max Muncy, Ryan McMahon, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Gavin Sheets, Kody Clemens, Geraldo Perdomo, Yainer Diaz, Logan O’Hoppe, Anthony Volpe, Colson Montgomery, Ivan Herrera, Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin (19)
• Note: Francisco Lindor hit 30 last night. Christian Walker and Dansby Swanson each hit #24 last night. Daulton Varsho hit a grand slam for 20 last night.

Players away from big “numbers” in the SB department:

• Jose Caballero (48)
• Oneil Cruz (38)
• Bobby Witt Jr. (37)
• Nico Hoerner, Gunnar Henderson, Randy Arozarena, Josh Naylor (29)
• Julio Rodriguez (28)
• Zach McKinstry, Shohei Ohtani, Ceddanne Rafaela, Sal Frelick, Jordan Beck (19)
• Dansby Swanson, Josh Lowe, Dane Myers (injured), Tyler Freeman, Anthony Volpe, Matt McLain (18)

Players away from big “numbers” in the RBI department:

• Geraldo Perdomo (98)
• Cody Bellinger, Jo Adell, Seiya Suzuki (97)

MLB Picks Today

Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies (-158, 8)

6:45 p.m. ET

What could be the final series for manager Rocco Baldelli begins this weekend with the Twins on the road against the Phillies. Joe Ryan gets the start for Minnesota and Aaron Nola will go for Philadelphia, as they hope to close the gap for the No. 1 seed in the NL playoffs, currently held by the Brewers.

That being said, I don’t think they’ll be interested in going all out for it, so this is probably a spot where Nola will be given a long leash to work through some things and maybe the Phillies don’t roll out their top relievers in high-leverage spots if they want to give others an opportunity. Either way, two struggling starters are taking the mound tonight.

Let’s start with Nola, whose struggles are especially concerning in light of Zack Wheeler’s season-ending injury. Nola has allowed 29 runs in 36.2 innings of work since returning from an injury of his own. He has a 6.87 ERA with a 4.37 FIP and a 4.04 xFIP, so there are some positive regression signs in the profile, but he’s allowed a 44% Hard Hit% and a 10.1% Barrel%. It’s hard to get better with those kinds of command numbers. He’s allowed 22 hard-hit balls and six Barrels in his last two starts against the Royals and Diamondbacks, not exactly known for barreling the ball.

But, Nola is a strike-thrower and the Twins will probably be aggressive here because they have nothing to play for, so guys will just be looking to attack the first hittable pitch. Ryan is a pretty similar guy in that regard and he has a home run problem, so that should really benefit a Phillies lineup swinging the bats extremely well right now.

Ryan has allowed 23 runs in his last 27 innings. While he didn’t have his annual August injury, he has not pitched well at the end of the season, with a 7.33 ERA and a 6.44 FIP in his last six starts, including nine home runs allowed. He’s allowed a 44.4% Hard Hit% and a 14.8% Barrel% in that span. Even the Guardians just hit four homers off of him in his last outing.

Minnesota’s bullpen also has the number of the beast of the last 30 days with a 6.66 ERA in 100 innings of work. With pretty seasonable temps, no wind factors, and two teams that can afford to have some individuals a little selfish in the batter’s box, I think runs are in the forecast tonight.

Pick: Twins/Phillies Over 8 Runs (-119)

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox (-122, 8.5)

7:10 p.m. ET

The Tigers and Red Sox fire up a big series tonight with Casey Mize and Kyle Harrison on the mound for their respective teams. I’m looking at Mize against the Boston lineup and there are a lot of things I don’t like about this matchup for him.

So, let’s start here – Mize has allowed a .276/.319/.460 slash on the road with a .332 wOBA. Comerica Park has a big, spacious outfield and Tigers pitchers can use that to their advantage. Except for the weird part of center field at Fenway Park, it is not spacious at all. Righties on the road in 142 PA own a .289/.333/.531 slash against Mize with a .365 wOBA. He actually has reverse platoon splits, due in large part to his pitch usage, which includes a splitter.

Mize has thrown more MLB innings this season than he had in the previous three seasons combined, as he missed all of 2023 and threw 10 innings in 2022. He threw 102.1 innings at the MLB level in 2024. Therefore, I’m not terribly surprised to see some second-half struggles, as opposing batters have hit .284/.329/.502 with a .353 wOBA in his last 54 innings. His ERA (5.17) is more than two runs higher than it was in the first half.

In what is a huge start with an offense that doesn’t give him any margin for error, I think this is a really tough spot for Mize. Boston has a 9.6% BB% against righties over the last 14 days, and while they haven’t had a lot of batted ball luck, they’re not striking out a lot and are drawing walks. I have to think positive regression is coming and Mize may be nibbling tonight with the stakes and the ballpark.

At plus money, I think this is worth the dice roll.

Pick: Red Sox 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+124)