MLB Best Bets Today September 5

Key Highlights:

• Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction
• Guardians vs. Rays Prediction
• Astros vs. Rangers Pick

A full set of Friday games is on the docket for September 5, as we have several traditional division rivalry matchups. There are only three interleague games on Friday, as we get one division rivalry series in each of the NL divisions as well as all three AL divisions. It’s fair to wonder whether or not MLB will return to prioritizing division games more, after altering the schedule to feature just 13 head-to-head meetings instead of the 19 that it used to be.

In any event, time is running out on the MLB season, as Sunday leaves us with just three weeks left in the regular season. The playoffs start on September 30 with the Wild Card Round.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for September 5:

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction (-136, 9)

7:05 p.m. ET

A big series gets underway in the Bronx tonight, as the Blue Jays take a three-game lead in the AL East into the weekend set against the Yankees. Kevin Gausman and Cam Schlittler are the listed hurlers here.

Both offenses continue to hit right-handed pitching well, as the Yankees are third with a .379 wOBA over the last 14 days and the Blue Jays are fifth with a .368 wOBA. So, it will be a tough assignment for both guys, but I do want to fade one of these pitchers here and it is the youngster.

Schlittler’s rookie season has gone very well, as he owns a 2.61 ERA with a 3.59 xERA and a 3.88 FIP in his 48.1 innings of work. But, he now faces a Blue Jays lineup that is one of the hardest to strike out. Toronto has the third-lowest K% against RHP over the last 14 days and the lowest in baseball for the season. To me, that’s how the gap between Schlittler’s ERA, xERA, and FIP come to the forefront.

He has a 27.1% K%, but a 10.1% BB%. He’s allowed a .291 BABIP and has been a guy with a high BABIP against throughout the minor leagues. In his first start against the Blue Jays, he only had three strikeouts out of 24 batters faced. He danced around seven hits to only allow two runs, but he was on the precipice of a rough outing. One of those is likely coming, as he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start, but I can’t see his 89.6% LOB% having a ton of staying power, as talented as he is.

Gausman enters with a 3.75 ERA, 3.75 xERA, and a 3.66 FIP, as his luck and sequencing metrics mostly fall into normal ranges. He has been excellent in the second half over 51 innings with a 2.82 ERA, holding opposing batters to a .178/.216/.319 slash and a .231 wOBA. He’s also seen a K% bump of 4.2% up to 27.3% and has cut his BB% down by nearly 3% to 4.6%. Those are excellent signs.

The Yankees bullpen had a heavy day yesterday, as David Bednar threw 33 pitches. Luke Weaver has now thrown 40 over the last two days and Fernando Cruz and Devin Williams have each thrown 34 over the last two days.

While Toronto had yesterday off, the Yankees wrapped up a seven-game road trip and arrived at EWR at 4:26 a.m. I’ll take my chances with the Blue Jays here.

Pick: Blue Jays +112

Guardians vs. Rays Prediction (-144, 8)

7:35 p.m. ET

The Guardians and Rays continue their four-game weekend set with Gavin Williams on the bump for Cleveland and Griffin Jax as the opener in front of Ian Seymour for the Rays. Seymour carved up Guardians hitters not that long ago, as he had the best outing of his young career with five shutout, one-hit innings with eight strikeouts. Cleveland can’t hit lefties and hasn’t been able to for a very long time, so Seymour should be set up for success here again.

The southpaw has a 2.97 ERA with a 2.78 FIP and will work in bulk relief here after making a couple of starts. He is fully rested and will follow Jax, as Kevin Cash toys with Cleveland’s platoon-heavy offense. Jax hasn’t thrown more than an inning all season, but I bet Cash would love to try and squeeze two out of him to really throw off Stephen Vogt’s plans.

Williams has a 3.26 ERA with a 4.36 xERA and a 4.55 FIP, as he’s got a high BB% that has hurt his FIP and xERA. He’s been throwing the ball pretty well lately, including seven innings of one-run ball against the Mariners last Saturday. He actually has a 2.35 ERA over his last 10 starts with improved K% and BB% numbers. He’s only allowed more than three runs in a start once.

I’m looking for a low-scoring affair here, at least early. The Cleveland bullpen has had a ton of problems recently, so I’m not sure I want to have my fate in their hands. But, Seymour should stymie Cleveland and Williams has been throwing the ball well enough for me to be confident in the 1st 5 Under.

Pick: Guardians/Rays 1st 5 Under 4.5 Runs (-120)

Astros vs. Rangers Prediction (+123, 7.5)

8:05 p.m. ET

Lone Star State bragging rights are on the line this weekend, as the Astros and Rangers get going tonight with a fine pitching matchup. It will be Trade Deadline acquisition Merrill Kelly for Texas and homegrown ace Hunter Brown for Houston. A dandy to be sure.

Kelly made his Rangers debut on August 2 and owns a 3.31 ERA with a 4.89 FIP over 35.1 innings of work. He has allowed more than three runs just once in his six starts. Kelly has a 28/8 K/BB ratio, so he’s done a good job limiting walks, even if his K% is down from where it was in Arizona. He also issued five of those walks in one start, so he’s been quite stingy with the free passes otherwise.

I generally really like Kelly and have for a long time. And this Rangers team is just five back in the AL West race and 1.5 back in the Wild Card chase. This is a team that has a Pythagorean Win-Loss record of 81-60 based on their run differential, so they’ve gotten unlucky to be just 72-69, but they have three weeks and a couple days to change that and make the postseason.

Brown comes in with a 2.34 ERA, 3.18 xERA, and a 3.03 FIP over his 161.2 innings of work. In a season filled with pitching injuries for Houston, Brown’s been a godsend as he’s really improved in a lot of key areas. That being said, I’m going to fade him tonight. It’s more of a play on Kelly, who has held right-handed batters to a .189/.243/.286 slash and a .236 wOBA on the season.

Brown has seen a big drop in his K% here in the second half, going from 31.1% to 23.4%. He’s allowing more hits as a result, but he’s been able to carry a 77.1% LOB%, a drop from 84.2% in the first half. I also want to fade the Astros bullpen off of a long week and with no Josh Hader. The Rangers had yesterday off, while the Astros had to face the Yankees.

Pick: Rangers +123