MLB Best Bets Today April 29
It is a busy Monday in the MLB world with 12 games on the docket. Unfortunately, there are no day games to distract from a case of the Mondays at work, as the first pitch of the evening won’t be thrown until 6:35 p.m. ET in Baltimore between the Yankees and Orioles. On the plus side, it gives bettors a while to work through the card. But, there’s always a downside to a lack of day games.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for April 29:
Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays (-166, 8.5)
7:07 p.m. ET
Jonathan Bowlan will make his second Major League start in this one for the Royals. The Royals and Blue Jays just played last week in Kansas City and will play north of the border now, as KC took three out of four in that series. The Royals won three one-run games and all four games were lower-scoring affairs, so we’ll see if Bowlan can follow what his staff mates did in that series.
The 27-year-old has thrown the ball really well in Triple-A this season, leveraging his fastball more effectively up in the zone. He’s struck out 21 batters and only walked five over four starts and he seems a lot healthier now that he’s further removed from Tommy John surgery. He earned a call-up late last season because of the quality of his stuff and made two appearances with a run allowed on five hits over 14 batters.
I like that the 6-foot-6 Bowlan is using more high fastballs and that he’s been able to add more tilt to the slider to generate a higher Whiff rate. The Blue Jays only have a 93 wRC+ against righties on the season and Bowlan will be an unfamiliar arm to most of them. Toronto also only has 18 home runs, so they haven’t been driving the baseball in the air much, which is what I would worry about with Bowlan working up in the zone.
Yariel Rodriguez has thrown the ball well for Toronto in his own right with a 3.86 ERA, but he has a 5.05 xERA and a 4.12 FIP. Rodriguez has allowed three barrels in 32 batted ball events, which is one of the reasons why xERA is low on him. He just faced the Royals and, while they didn’t have a lot of contact quality success, Rodriguez only had a 5.8% SwStr%. He had a big drop in velo in that start as well, so he wasn’t able to generate that same kind of swing and miss. He also allowed a 100% Z-Contact% two starts ago versus the Padres.
The Royals have a rested pen in terms of their high-leverage guys, while the Blue Jays have used Jordan Romano and Yimi Garcia back-to-back days. With Rodriguez typically only lasting four innings, Toronto will have to cobble the back end of this one together.
Given the price on the Royals, I think this is a decent opportunity to grab some value. I don’t think Bowlan and the unproven Rodriguez are that far apart and these two offenses aren’t really separated by much either.
Pick: Royals +140
Pittsburgh Pirates (-125, 8) at Oakland Athletics
9:40 p.m. ET
The A’s return to Oakland Coliseum to kick off an interleague series with the Pirates. It will be Bailey Falter against Joe Boyle under the lights with the late start in the Bay Area. Falter is off to a really nice start for the Pirates, as he’s got a 3.33 ERA with a 4.55 FIP. The high FIP is a byproduct of a low strikeout rate with just 18 K in 27 innings and the fact that he has allowed four home runs, but two of them came in his first start against Miami and he’s only allowed four runs over his last four starts.
Last time out, he added a new dimension of swing and miss against the Brewers with eight punchies over seven innings and a 16.5% SwStr%. It looks like the Pirates maybe made a modest change to his mechanics, as he sat a season-high 92 mph with the fastball and 91.9 mph with the sinker. He also leveraged four-seamer very effectively in that outing.
The Pirates are playing good defense on the whole this season and Falter, who is traditionally more of a pitch-to-contact guy, should be able to work with confidence thanks to that marine layer and the spacious dimensions of the Coliseum. He’s also done a really good job of limiting hard contact this season with a 34.2% Hard Hit%.
On the A’s side, Boyle has 24 K in 21.2 innings, but he’s also walked 16 guys to this point. He’s walked at least three batters in four of his five starts, so I do like Over 2.5 Walks Allowed at -125, but I know that isn’t an option available to every bettor and I’m trying my best to stick with things that are available to everybody.
But, I do really like that prop because the Pirates come in with a 10.3% BB% that ranks second in baseball behind the Yankees at 11.4%. Boyle just faced the Yankees and needed 85 pitches to record nine outs. He also faced a Cleveland team that leads the league in Swing% and walked four of the 25 batters that he faced in that one.
It isn’t quantifiable, but I can’t help but feel like it’s a downer for the A’s to come back home. On the Pittsburgh side, they’re just 4-13 since starting the year 9-2, so I don’t think they can overlook any game or opponent. A little step down in class may help here.
Pick: Pirates -125
