MLB Best Bets Today August 18

Key Highlights:

• 13 games on the MLB schedule today
• Blue Jays vs. Pirates: Paul Skenes Day in Pittsburgh
• Reds vs. Angels: Cincinnati starts a road trip

Thirteen games kick off a new week in Major League Baseball, as two of them will be played at Wrigley Field with a doubleheader between the Brewers and Cubs. The Cubs begin the day eight games behind the Brewers, who have the best record in baseball, so that will be an interesting series to follow. We also have Tigers manager AJ Hinch against his former team with the Astros in Motown.

Mariners vs. Phillies is probably the series of the early part of the week and we do have a good one between Logan Gilbert and Ranger Suarez tonight. We also have the Blue Jays up against Paul Skenes and the Pirates. All in all, a good Monday slate to get us going.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for August 18:

Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates (-112, 7)

6:40 p.m. ET

And we start with that Skenes matchup. The NL Cy Young Award favorite draws a tough assignment today against the Blue Jays, who are second in wOBA at .380 and second in wRC+ at 146 here in the second half. The Pirates are 19th in wOBA at .305 and have a 93 wRC+. It’s pretty simple to me here. As great as Skenes is, the Blue Jays offense is light years better than the Pirates offense and Kevin Gausman is a solid starting pitcher.

Skenes has allowed four runs in two of his last three starts and gave up seven hits in six shutout innings against the Reds. He had his lowest SwStr% of the season in his last start against the Brewers. The Blue Jays are the hardest team in baseball to strike out and the hardest team to get to swing and miss. The Brewers are second in SwStr% and have the fifth-lowest K%. They’ve scored four runs off of Skenes twice out of his three starts.

Gausman has a 3.79 ERA with a 3.73 xERA and a 3.82 FIP, so you have a pretty good idea what you’re going to get out of him. He’s worked 142.2 innings over 24 starts and has been better on the road with a .181/.253/.295 slash and a .244 wOBA against. Over his last five starts, Gausman has just a 2.45 ERA, lower than Skenes in that span.

The Blue Jays bullpen has not been good with a 5.19 ERA and a 4.53 FIP in the month of August, but the Pirates have been worse with a league-high 7.32 ERA to go with a 4.45 FIP. Skenes is a difference maker and maybe the best pitcher in the NL, but it’s hard to see the offensive gaps and the better Blue Jays pen and not like this price, even if a better one was available overnight.

Pick: Blue Jays -108

Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies (-119, 7.5)

6:45 p.m. ET

The Mariners and Phillies fire up a three-game weekday set with Logan Gilbert and Ranger Suarez. The M’s got in very late last night, with a 1:40 a.m. arrival at PHL after playing in last night’s rain-delayed Little League Classic. That makes tonight’s game the third in three days in a different ballpark for a team three time zones away from home. This is also the fourth city since Tuesday for Seattle, who was in Baltimore and New York City prior to the game in Williamsport.

The Phillies, meanwhile, got home fairly early last night after an 11-9 win over the Nationals to wrap up a long 10-game roadie of their own with a 6-4 record.

This appears to be a bounce back spot for Suarez, as he has a 3.28 ERA with a 3.26 xERA and a 3.27 FIP in his 112.1 innings of work. There were some notable regression signs in the profile that have hit, as he has allowed 14 runs on 23 hits over his last three outings. He’s still been able to give the Phillies length in those tough turns in the rotation, going 18.2 innings over those three efforts.

Right now, he’s struggling to miss bats, but he’s still been able to limit hard contact. He did give up three Barrels to the Tigers three starts ago, but has only had Hard Hit% marks of 31.3%, 35%, 20.8%, and 31.8% in his last four outings. He’s fallen victim to some bad luck of late. I don’t see any glaring injury indicators, though his average fastball and sinker velos are both down from the start of his season in May. Maybe something, maybe nothing, but the Mariners are 24th in wOBA at .284 and have just an 86 wRC+ against lefties over the last two weeks. They also have a 26.6% K% in that span.

Gilbert is having another strong season with a 3.31 ERA, 2.81 xERA, and a 2.99 FIP over 89.2 innings of work. Like most Seattle starters, though, Gilbert has been substantially better at home compared to on the road, where his BA is 121 points higher, his OBP is 135 points higher, his SLG is 190 points higher, and his wOBA is 138 points higher. He’s worked 15.2 more innings at home.

The Mariners bullpen is fresher than the Phillies bullpen, but Philly has a deep unit now and they’ve got the second-best reliever ERA this month at 2.33.

Pick: Phillies -119

Cincinnati Reds (-115, 9) at Los Angeles Angels

9:38 p.m. ET

Terry Francona is going to be looking for some length out of Brady Singer tonight as the Reds begin a road trip against the Angels. After snapping Milwaukee’s 14-game winning streak on Sunday for a much happier plane ride to the left coast than it would have been otherwise, Cincy is a long way from home for one of their two three-city, nine-game West Coast trips over the final six weeks of the season.

This is a one-sided handicap for me. I’m looking at Singer and I’m looking at Over 16.5 Outs Recorded. I like Over 5.5 Strikeouts as well, but the juice is a little heavy on that at -140. I prefer the outs prop. But, the Angels have the second-highest Whiff Rate against the “slider group” as defined by Statcast, which is sliders, sweepers, and slurves. Their 36.7% Whiff Rate is better than only the Rockies. That means that Singer, whose best strikeout starts have mostly come with heavier slider usage, should be deploying a lot of them tonight.

If we slap a pitcher handedness qualifier on that slider Whiff Rate, the Angels are still second at 36.4%, so it doesn’t make a huge difference lefty or righty. Over the last 14 days, the Angels have a 29.5% K% against RHP, so Singer should be ahead in most of his counts, which should help induce weaker contact and also help his pitch efficiency.

The Reds used four relievers on Saturday and three on Sunday, but the three that have worked back-to-back days are closer Emilio Pagan and setup men Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft. If Singer can shorten the game, that would be huge and I’d expect Tito to push him. He is on an extra day of rest and has gotten at least 18 outs in three of his last four starts.

Pick: Brady Singer (CIN) Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-110)