MLB Best Bets Today August 4
Only four teams have Monday off, as we get 13 night games on August 4. We’ve got a good spread of games as well, with five in the NL and then four in both the AL and NL vs. AL action. Now that the Trade Deadline has passed and everything has settled down with a few games and data points over the weekend, we should see these teams lock back in for the remainder of the season.
We’ve only got a couple of really big favorites to start off the work week, so hopefully we get a compelling card.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 4:
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox (-164, 9.5)
7:10 p.m. ET
Bailey Falter makes his Royals debut in this one as KC heads to Boston to face the Red Sox. It will be Brayan Bello for the home team here, and I think that’s actually a pretty good pitching matchup all things considered.
Falter was handpicked by the Royals at the Trade Deadline, as Pittsburgh allowed the southpaw with who won’t be a free agent for a few more seasons head to the AL. The Royals have been really brilliant with their pitching development since hiring Brian Sweeney as pitching coach and changing gears in the front office. We’ve seen Cole Ragans become a star and Kris Bubic was on that path as well, though both guys are on the IL now.
When you look at Falter, you don’t see a ton of standout stats and a lot of pitch-to-contact attributes. What he does have, though, is some of the longest Extension in baseball, so that has allowed his fastball to play up. I fully expect the Royals to leverage that trait and find more swings and misses with a better pitch mix. He’s also not experiencing that much of a defensive drop-off going from the Pirates to the Royals.
His 3.73 ERA does come with a 4.55 xERA and a 4.88 FIP, as his low K%, heightened BB% and high HR/9 are all factors, but I like the Royals’ dev staff and I think they’ll find immediate success with him.
Bello has a 3.19 ERA with a 4.46 xERA and a 4.35 FIP, so there are some regression signs for him, too, but he’s got a GB% over 50% and has cut down on the hard-hit contact this season. His xERA and FIP are byproducts of a decreased K% and increased BB%, but he’s worked around them throughout the season. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since June 9 and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs since May 18.
I think this one is an Under game to start the series. The Royals have a 102 wRC+ in the second half and the Red Sox have just a 96 wRC+. While Boston is second in wOBA against LHP for the season, they are 16th with a league average 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Pick: Royals/Red Sox Under 9.5 (-112)
Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels (-126, 8.5)
9:38 p.m. ET
Adrian Houser’s first start with the Rays comes tonight against the Angels, as LA counters with Yusei Kikuchi. The Rays have had all sorts of issues hitting lefties of late, so we’ll see if they can figure out the veteran southpaw. They did get Ha-seong Kim back from the IL recently and he’s a bat that should help quite a bit in that split.
Kikuchi has a 3.30 ERA, but also a 4.34 xERA and a 4.08 FIP, so there are some regression signs in the profile for him. Those seem to be hitting, as he has a 5.26 ERA with a 5.17 FIP over his last five starts covering 25.2 innings of work. In that span, he’s allowed a 42.2% Hard Hit% with an average exit velo of 92.4 mph. His command is waning a little bit and that should give the Rays the chance to take advantage.
Houser comes in with a 2.10 ERA, 3.97 xERA, and a 3.31 FIP in his 68.2 innings of work. He’s got a 47.5% GB% to help offset a low K%, but I’m sure that the Rays saw something in him that they feel like they can fix or enhance. Houser and the Rays fit the same mold as above with the Royals, as I’m a believer in both organizations and what they do from a pitching standpoint.
Also, the Rays will probably make some tweaks to the pitch usage patterns, so the scouting and pregame study may not be as effective with the previous data points different from the new ones.
The 1st 5 ML is a few cents better, but I like the Rays’ bullpen acquisitions at the Trade Deadline, so I think the full game is the route for me.
Pick: Rays +104
