MLB Best Bets Today July 21

With the All-Star Game not that far back in the rearview, all 30 teams take the field on Monday, in what is a very rare occurrence. But, since everybody, except for the ASG participants, had four days off, the league has everybody standing on business on July 21. All 15 games are night games as well, so we kick off another work week on the diamond with a schedule where all games start at 6:40 p.m. ET or later.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 21:

New York Yankees (-120, 8) at Toronto Blue Jays

7:07 p.m. ET

Division rivals square off north of the border as the Yankees and Blue Jays play some meaningful games this week. It will be Carlos Rodon and Kevin Gausman in this one, as the quest to draw first blood gets underway. The Blue Jays enter this series up by three games in the AL East and they’ll hope to put a little distance in that race at Rogers Centre.

Toronto got back to work with a three-game sweep of the Giants and doubled them up in the series 18-9. After dropping a couple to the A’s in Sacramento right before the Break, it was a nice bounce back performance. New York, meanwhile, dropped the series opener in Atlanta, but responded nicely with a couple of wins to take down the series before heading north.

The pitchers getting starts over the next 2-3 days could be a bit of a mixed bag. Gausman hasn’t started since July 12. Rodon hasn’t started since July 11. Extra rest isn’t a bad thing, per se, but athletes are creatures of habit and guys are out of rhythm after these long breaks.

As far as this game goes, I like Toronto here. Rodon comes in with a 3.08 ERA, 3.11 xERA, and 3.59 FIP, so the numbers are really solid. That said, he has allowed a 40.9% Hard Hit% with his third straight season over 40%. He has cut down his Barrel% this year to 8.4% after back-to-back double-digit seasons and I do wonder if his command could be shakier in this start on nine days rest.

The Blue Jays own a .322 wOBA against LHP on the season with just an 18.2% K%, metrics that rank eighth and first, respectively. Rodon is at his best when he’s generating swings and misses and those hard-hit balls are more manageable. Toronto is the best lineup in baseball at avoiding strikeouts.

Gausman hasn’t been as solid as Rodon, posting a 4.19 ERA with a 3.93 xERA and a 3.87 FIP, but he’s cut down his Hard Hit% and has a similar Barrel% to Rodon. I also think that the Break came at a really good time for Gausman, who allowed wOBAs of .270 and .251 over the first two months of the season, but struggled through June and his first few starts in July. I think a reset for the 34-year-old came at a good time.

It should be an amped-up crowd for a Monday night in the series of the week and I like Toronto to ride the wave of their recent play and take down Game 1.

Pick: Blue Jays -102

Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs (-148, 7.5)

8:05 p.m. ET

Noah Cameron has been a revelation this season for the Royals as he starts the second half with yet another difficult assignment. The southpaw draws the Cubs coming out of the Break, as he gets the nod on a week’s worth of rest. The 26-year-old rookie comes in with a 2.31 ERA, 3.17 xERA, and a 3.68 FIP, as his .218 BABIP and 86.4% LOB% are areas of regression that I’ve been trying to prey on for a while, but he just keeps chugging along.

Well, I’m going to give it a shot at fading him again today with this matchup against the Cubs. It had to be a whirlwind for Cameron over his first 12 MLB starts and 70 innings, with the All-Star Break probably giving him a chance to catch his breath. But probably also a chance to reflect on what he’s done so far and maybe get knocked out of rhythm a little bit. 

The Cubs are sixth in wOBA against LHP at .329 and have a 113 wRC+. Because the wind is blowing in a bit at Wrigley tonight, I think we’re getting a better number than we probably should. I mean, I guess Cameron’s been terrific and, as Paul Sporer noted in his Starting Pitcher Chart for today, Cameron’s thrown 73% of his innings against teams with a winning record. Maybe he just rides the wave.

But, I’ll take a good offense getting pressured by the Brewers in the NL Central to deal some of the impending regression to Cameron in what I think is a bit of a tricky spot, especially against a very good lineup against lefties.

After all, Cameron has faced good teams, but his two most recent opponents rank 18th (Mets) and 30th (Pirates) and better lineups against lefties like the Dodgers and Yankees have jumped on him since the start of June. Initially I had Cubs 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 at +105 here, but DraftKings moved to 1.5 and -160 on the Over, which is pretty high on the vig, but worth it, IMO. Also Cubs 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+110) with Chris Flexen probably following Ryan Brasier.

Pick: Cubs 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-160); Cubs 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+110)

Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks (-149, 9)

9:40 p.m. ET

The Astros and Diamondbacks fire up a weekday series at Chase Field with Colton Gordon and Zac Gallen. This is a pretty big favorite role for Gallen, who has not been very good this season, but will still be a hot commodity in trade rumors over the next 10 days. There should be a lot of scouts and a lot of watchful eyes in attendance for this one.

My angle in this game is Gallen Over 5.5 Strikeouts. The Astros are a mess right now. Their injured list now includes Isaac Paredes, as he joined Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, Brendan Rodgers, Jake Meyers, and others on the sidelines. Houston’s K% has been climbing as a result. Over the last 14 days, which does obviously include the four missed days of the All-Star Break, the Astros have a 25.4% K%.

While Houston isn’t quite as right-handed-heavy now, as they’ve had to call up some reinforcements, Gallen does have a 24.6% K% against RHB on the season. He’s at 19.8% against LHB, but he’ll be facing some lesser hitters on that side thanks to the injuries. Gallen’s actually throwing the ball a lot better of late, as he has a 22/3 K/BB ratio over his last 18 innings, good for a 30.1% K% in July.

So, I’ll take my shot here with a flat price on Gallen being able to navigate the battered and bruised Astros in what could very well be his last Chase Field start.

Pick: Zac Gallen (ARI) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)