MLB Best Bets Today July 28

There are only three games on Thursday, which happens to be Trade Deadline day. So, with that in mind, we get a rare Monday card in which all 30 teams are in action. It will be a 5-5-5 day with five games in each league and five interleague matchups, so we’ve got some very big series as front offices decide whether to buy, sell, or stand pat.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 28:

Boston Red Sox (-111, 9) at Minnesota Twins

7:40 p.m. ET

It seems as though the Red Sox and Twins will be racing the rain tonight, as some hefty storms are expected to move in around the time the game should be ending. Frankly, it seems like the Twins would rather be anywhere else these days, so I don’t think they’ll be very engaged in this one.

Minnesota is fading fast in the AL Central and has fallen well off the pace in the Wild Card race. Teams are calling about their relievers and others and it sure seems as though they’re going to be a seller here at the Trade Deadline. Also, Byron Buxton just suffered yet another injury and will likely be unavailable tonight.

Richard Fitts hasn’t been very sharp for the Red Sox with a 4.86 ERA, 4.99 xERA, and a 5.49 FIP in his 37 innings of work. But he does have a 3.80 ERA on the road in 21.1 innings of work, holding the opposition to a .244 BA and a .284 OBP. He’s had a home run issue with six dingers allowed, but otherwise has pitched pretty well, as he’s only allowed nine runs in total.

The Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richardson, who sports a 4.14 ERA with a 4.23 xERA and a 4.67 FIP in his 76 innings of work. In his first start after the All-Star Break, he gave up three runs in just three innings and walked five. Boston has been playing pretty well on the whole, despite just a .275 wOBA and a 69 wRC+ since returning to action after the Break. But, it’s also worth pointing out that they’ve faced the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers in that span. Those are all teams with way better pitching than the Twins.

Pick: Red Sox -111 

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 8)

7:45 p.m. ET

Edward Cabrera and Andre Pallante are the listed hurlers for this one, as we inch closer to the Trade Deadline. Cabrera seems to be a pretty hot commodity on the market, so this may be an audition for him in some respects, even though the Marlins don’t have to trade him. He’s just entering arbitration now and isn’t a free agent until 2029, so I think people are jumping the gun a bit.

The Cardinals are fading with seven losses in their last 10 games, so they look more and more like a seller with each passing day. I’m not sure the vibes are great around the team right now and they’re certainly not great around Pallante. Regression has hit the right-hander hard, as he’s allowed 18 runs on 25 hits over his last three starts. He is back at home now, but he did give up seven runs in his last home effort against the Nationals. His last two starts have been at Arizona and at Colorado.

The Marlins have been swinging some pretty good bats lately, as they have a bunch of young and hungry players looking to put their stamp on the ballclub. Since the All-Star Break, Miami is 12th in wOBA at .326 and has a 109 wRC+. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have a .304 wOBA and a 96 wRC+.

Hopefully Cabrera, who comes in with a 3.48 ERA, 3.79 xERA, and a 3.55 FIP over 88 innings of work can keep it rolling here. He had a bad start against Baltimore heading into the All-Star Break, marking the first time since May 19 that he has allowed more than two earned runs in a start.

These seem like two teams going in different directions and the Marlins have a starting pitcher advantage here.

Pick: Marlins -106