MLB Best Bets Today July 7

Two-thirds of the MLB teams are slated to be in action on Monday, as we have 10 games across the schedule. Much to the chagrin of those back to work after the long holiday weekend, there are zero day games, as the first game goes off at 6:40 p.m. ET. The All-Star Break begins a week from today, so that’s something to look forward to for teams that have had a rough first half or a rough stretch recently.

For others, they’ll be looking to push hard and bank as many wins as possible before the Break in hopes of improving their spot in the standings or sending a message to the front office to be a buyer at the Trade Deadline. But, that’s still a few days away and we’ve got lots of baseball before then.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 7:

Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros (-137, 7.5)

8:10 p.m. ET

For most teams, avoiding Hunter Brown for a day would be a positive thing. For the Guardians, frankly, it doesn’t really matter who they are facing these days. However, the fact that Colton Gordon throws left-handed means that it may not make any difference whatsoever.

Gordon has a 4.37 ERA with a 3.74 xERA and a 4.39 FIP in his 45.1 innings of work. He’s had a home run problem with a 15.8% HR/FB% and a 1.79 HR/9 and he’s also got a .343 BABIP against, so he’s had no luck at all on batted balls. Given that he has a 38.3% Hard Hit% and a 9.4% Barrel%, I would expect both numbers to regress to the mean a bit. A start against the hapless and hopeless Guardians offense seems like a good chance for that to occur.

Cleveland is dead last in the league with a .269 wOBA against lefties. They’re batting .217/.285/.322 with the lowest SLG in the league, even though they have the highest Platoon% by far. In other words, their part-time players that are right-handed bats have done virtually nothing against lefties and neither have the regulars. The Guardians have the most PA against LHP over the last 30 days and are batting .213/.286/.333 with a .274 wOBA and a 74 wRC+. They’re bad on offense in general, but really bad against LHP.

Valiant efforts from the starters were completely wasted this past weekend against the Tigers and have been wasted a lot lately with Cleveland on a 10-game losing streak. Tanner Bibee is the de facto ace of this staff and takes that very personally, as a guy who wears his emotions outwardly and can lose it a bit when he gets frustrated. He’s got a 4.20 ERA with a 3.62 xERA and a 4.42 FIP. Cleveland is much worse defensively than usual, so there are some ERA/xERA differences on the roster.

Bibee owns a 5.40 ERA and a .266/.339/.482 slash against with a .356 wOBA against on the road. He gave up five runs on six hits last time out against the Cubs, though it wasn’t all his fault, as the Guardians got boned by the umpires and MLB rules. But, he still couldn’t shut the door with a 3-0 lead and the Cubs covered the 1st 5 run line for us there. I’ll be back on it again here with Houston and at a plus-money price.

Pick: Astros 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+110)

Texas Rangers (-136, 7.5) at Los Angeles Angels

9:38 p.m. ET

Jacob deGrom and Yusei Kikuchi are both having terrific seasons and Kikuchi has especially done a fantastic job pitching at Angel Stadium. deGrom has a 2.13 ERA with a 2.89 xERA and a 3.08 FIP in 101.1 innings of work across 17 starts. Kikuchi does have a heightened xERA, as he has a 2.81 ERA, 4.09 xERA, and a 3.79 FIP over 102.1 innings of work. His high walk rate is a big part of the reason why, but he’s still striking out over a batter per inning.

Kikuchi comes into this outing with a spectacular 1.12 ERA over 48.1 innings at home. He’s got a .205/.277/.295 slash against with a .253 wOBA against. He’s only allowed nine runs, six earned, in his home efforts. He’s given up 17 extra-base hits in 54 innings on the road, but only eight of them in 48.1 innings at home.

Furthermore, the Rangers are awful against lefties. Texas has a .216/.280/.331 with a .271 wOBA with a 23.9% K% on the season. Over the last 30 days, they’ve been pretty much just as bad, posting a .216/.293/.320 slash and a .273 wOBA. It should be a great matchup for Kikuchi and another tough one for the Texas lineup.

Both bullpens have been solid of late as well, as the Rangers actually have the second-best bullpen ERA in the league at 2.66 over the last 30 days and the Angels are 10th at 3.59. Both groups are in the low-to-mid 3s over the last two weeks as well.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

Philadelphia Phillies (-136, 7.5) at San Francisco Giants

9:45 p.m. ET

I guess it’s “pick on teams who are bad against lefties” day, as Cristopher Sanchez gets the call for the Phillies and Landen Roupp gets the ball for the Giants. The Giants are 26th in wOBA against LHP this season, batting a league-low .213 with a .282 OBP and a .348 SLG. They are slightly better over the last 30 days with a .284 wOBA, but Sanchez is not your average lefty.

The 6-foot-6 ground ball wizard has a 2.68 ERA with a 3.02 xERA and a 2.86 FIP on the season over 100.2 innings of work. His K% is the best of his career and he’s continued to be stingy with free passes and long balls. Sanchez has a 26.2% K% coupled with a 57.2% GB%. It is so hard to score runs against guys like that and especially for an offense as bad against southpaws as the Giants are.

The Phillies are a tough lineup, but Roupp has really enjoyed the friendly confines of Oracle Park. He’s only been able to pitch 34 innings at home compared to 51.1 innings on the road, but he has allowed a .238/.302/.294 slash at home with a .270 wOBA. His road numbers are substantially worse, including all eight homers that he has surrendered, but we don’t have to worry about that because he’s pitching at home in this one.

Philadelphia is just 23-21 on the road as they head out west for a six-game roadie heading into the All-Star Break. This is their first trip farther west than Houston since May 25. They’ve scored more than a run fewer per game on the road with 4.05 compared to 5.1 at Citizens Bank Park.

These are two solid bullpens with a lot of good arms in a favorable park for pitching. This looks to be another Under bet for me.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-108)