MLB Best Bets Today June 16th
Greetings folks! Our usual baseball maestro Adam Burke is on vacation for a while, so while he is away I’ll be taking over daily MLB best bets.
Despite Adam’s absence, the usual schedule of articles will remain. I’ll have daily best bets Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up the standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays.
Top MLB Resources:
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB Best Bets today for June 16th:
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-150, 8.5)
10:10 p.m. ET
Dylan Cease is the quintessential pitcher I’m looking to back at this point of the season. Cease owns a 2-5 record and a 4.28 ERA, but his underlying metrics paint a much better picture. One worth buying low on.
Cease’s 3.10 FIP gives us a general sense that he has deserved better than what he has received. Opponents have hit .326 on balls in play against him, which is somewhat high. He also has elite swing-and-miss numbers. The Padres’ starter ranks in the 81st percentile in chase rate (31.7%), the 95th percentile in whiff rate (34.7%) and he has struck out 29.9% of opposing hitters.
Much of Cease’s inflated ERA comes from a start against the Athletics in April. In the 11 starts since he owns a 3.39 ERA and 3.19 FIP; a statline much more in-line with what his season-long metrics point to. He put it all together in his last start which was against the Dodgers. Cease allowed just 3 hits and struck out 11. I believe he can put the Padres in position to get another one tonight.
Shohei Ohtani will oppose Cease tonight, but he will only serve as an opener in his pitching debut. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told the media that Ohtani will pitch no more than two innings. Still, the market has moved in Los Angeles’ direction at most shops. I’ll push back on this. Ohtani is pitching for the first time in nearly two years. His effectiveness in a short sample size deserves to be questioned. It also should not warrant a bump in the market. Especially when the opposing starter is pitching as well as Cease is.
Pick: Padres F5 ML (+120)
