MLB Best Bets Today June 3
Monday brings us a new week on the diamond and it is a pretty light day with just eight games on the card. All of them are night games, though, so that gives bettors a good, long time to analyze the data and see what stands out.
I’m back at my desk after spending a couple of weeks back east visiting family and friends, so we’ll be back to the usual posting times around 9 or 10 a.m. PT.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for June 3:
Baltimore Orioles (-115, 7.5) at Toronto Blue Jays
7:10 p.m. ET
We have a lot of toss-up games on the MLB card today with some outstanding pitching matchups and tightly-contested lines. One of them is the AL East battle between the Orioles and Blue Jays. Grayson Rodriguez gets the call for the O’s and Kevin Gausman goes for the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays have had a nice, little run lately, but they’ve played their last 13 games against the White Sox, Tigers, White Sox, and Pirates in a series where they avoided Jared Jones and Paul Skenes. Now they’re stepping back up in class against the O’s.
Gausman is stepping up in class as well. After shutting down the Tigers and White Sox in his last two starts, he faces a Baltimore bunch that has consistently ranked in the top 10 in a lot of different metrics and categories throughout the season. Gausman’s last two starts have lowered his ERA to 4.14, but he had a 4.89 ERA through his first nine starts. Those two starts represented the first time this season that Gausman has gone consecutive starts without allowing a Barrel.
This will be the fourth start since returning from the IL for Rodriguez, who has allowed six runs on 11 hits over 17 innings with 24 strikeouts against nine walks. He has only allowed two Barrels in that span and only a 29.7% Hard Hit%. Rodriguez gave up seven runs to the Angels on April 23 and has only allowed 13 runs over his other eight starts. He hit the IL about a week after that Angels start.
I prefer the Orioles bullpen here as well. Craig Kimbrel has been lightly-used and Yennier Cano had yesterday off to avoid working three straight days. Jordan Romano is on the IL for the Jays and Yimi Garcia has thrown 40 pitches over the last three days, including 26 yesterday. Chad Green is at 38 pitches over the last three days and threw 27 yesterday.
I’ll take Rodriguez over Gausman and the O’s pen over Toronto’s.
Pick: Orioles -115
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks (-135, 9)
9:40 p.m. ET
The Giants will be using Spencer Howard in a bulk capacity today and will either go with him as a straight starter or use an opener in the game against the Diamondbacks. We know that Arizona is sending out Ryne Nelson, who comes in with a 6.02 ERA, 4.84 xERA, and a 4.26 FIP in his 40.1 innings of work. I tried to give Nelson the benefit of the doubt recently, but since his May 5 recall, he’s allowed 19 runs on 39 hits in just 24.2 innings with an 18/8 K/BB ratio.
He’s allowed a 43.3% Hard Hit% and just doesn’t generate enough whiffs or chases consistently to be effective. The Diamondbacks are back home after a six-game road trip, including the long flight back from LaGuardia after yesterday’s 5-4 win in Queens. It’s a bit of a tricky spot for them and most spots seem to be tricky for Nelson.
Before running into the Yankees this past weekend, the Giants had actually won nine of 12, including a series win over the Phillies. Despite a bevy of injuries, the team was playing some pretty good ball. The Diamondbacks are certainly not the best offense in baseball like the Yankees are, so this is a nice step back in class for the pitching staff. In fact, Arizona only has a 91 wRC+ over the last 14 days.
To me, that isn’t an offensive profile to back at this price when coupled with a guy like Nelson on the mound. Howard threw four shutout innings in a bulk role against the Phillies back on May 28 and had 57 strikeouts in 39.2 innings at Triple-A before getting called up. Camilo Doval is unavailable after throwing 37 pitches yesterday, but everybody else should be ready for the Giants.
There is no starter listed for the Giants here, but I think this is a decent spot and a decent price with a team that was playing well before running into arguably the best team in baseball. For those using Listed Pitchers, you can wait if you want, and I always recommend doing that whenever possible, but I need to get the article out and I know Howard will be expected to eat innings in some capacity.
Pick: Giants +114
