MLB Best Bets Today June 30

Nearly half of the league’s teams catch a breather on Monday, as we have 16 of the 30 franchises in action. Seven of the eight games are intraleague matchups, but the one with the most intrigue is the lone interleague game with rookie phenom Chase Burns on the bump for the Reds and Garrett Crochet on the hill for the Red Sox.

Those aren’t the only storylines, as we also get Max Scherzer’s second start off the IL, the first MLB start of the season for knuckleballer Matt Waldron, a road start for Logan Webb, and Patrick Corbin Day.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for June 30:

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-113, 9)

6:40 p.m. ET

Two teams coming off of sweeps against lifeless opponents come together for division action at PNC Park. The Cardinals have taken four of six in the season series thus far and will look to start this series on a positive note before running into Paul Skenes tomorrow as a big underdog.

Erick Fedde gets the nod for the Redbirds and Andrew Heaney goes for the Buccos. Both guys are coming off of ugly starts, as Fedde allowed seven runs on eight hits over 3.2 innings to the Cubs last time out. I don’t see anything in the profile that suggests an injury. It seems like it was just a bad outing and also a bit of a regression spot for Fedde, who is running a xFIP over 5.00 and the three homers he allowed seemed to fit that mold.

Heaney is actually coming off of two duds in a row, as he’s allowed 14 runs on 15 hits in his last eight innings with just five strikeouts against six walks. Heaney’s Chase Rate has been under 15% in three of his last five starts and under 22% in four of his last five. He’s not creating a whole lot of margin for error in his starts and has a 43.2% Hard Hit% with a 9.0% Barrel%. In that five-start stretch, Heaney’s HH% has been 52.6%, 56.3%, 53.3%, 27.8%, and 66.7%. His command is non-existent right now.

Fedde gave up a ton of hard contact in his last start, including five Barrels, but he had done a pretty good job over his previous six starts. I trust the Cardinals offense more than the Pirates offense and don’t really see a reason for Heaney to be favored over Fedde here. The Pirates sweeping the Mets in dominant fashion grabbed a lot more headlines than the Cardinals doing the same to the rudderless Guardians, but St. Louis is obviously the better team in a matchup where neither pitcher stands out.

Pick: Cardinals -108

San Francisco Giants (-136, 8.5) at Arizona Diamondbacks

9:40 p.m. ET

Logan Webb has been extremely locked in for the Giants this season and he takes his team on the road to Chase Field as a favorite against the Diamondbacks. Arizona will turn to Ryne Nelson, who has pitched very well himself so far this season. Nelson has allowed 12 of his 25 runs in two of his 17 outings.

But, one area where I think Nelson could struggle tonight is in the walk department. Nelson has an 8.5% BB% this season. For his career, he’s below 7%, but he has altered his pitch usage a little bit in hopes of generating some more strikeouts and he’s had a bump in BB% here in June, walking 10 batters over 18.2 innings of work.

Over the last 14 days, the Giants lead the league in BB% against RHP at 11.6%. They are also second overall in baseball at 9.8%. I will grant that Nelson’s BB% is much higher on the road than at home in the climate-controlled conditions of Chase Field, but he also has made the majority of his starts on the road, thus working longer in the game. Also, the Giants are a very patient lineup, especially compared to some of the others Nelson has faced.

At plus money on 1.5, I can’t pass on the Over here.

Pick: Ryne Nelson (ARI) Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+105)