MLB schedule today has 8 games
A new week begins with eight games, as the Red Sox and Rays play a makeup game from Friday night’s rainout. That is the only day game, but it doesn’t start until 4 p.m., so bettors have plenty of time to handicap the card coming out of the weekend.
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A quick update on last week’s offensive stats relative to the full season to date:
Season: .247/.320/.408, .318 wOBA, .297 BABIP, 22.7% K%, 8.7% BB%, 12.2% HR/FB%
Last 7 days: .244/.314/.393, .310 wOBA, .296 BABIP, 22.9% K%, 8.4% BB%, 10.9% HR/FB%
It was a down week for offense overall, as there was a steep decrease in home runs and a noticeable drop in walk rate. I’m not really sure what the root cause may have been. The weather is warming up and plenty of pitchers are still hurt. Maybe it was just one of those weeks. Guess we’ll see how it plays out this week.
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Here are some thoughts on the June 5 card (odds from DraftKings):
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (-130, 9.5)
It is a big day for the Reds as pitching prospect Andrew Abbott makes his MLB debut. The 24-year-old southpaw has a 3.05 ERA with a 4.59 FIP in seven Triple-A starts after beginning with three dominant starts at Double-A, where he had a -0.49 FIP. In those three Double-A starts, Abbott struck out 36 of the 56 batters that he faced. He had 54 strikeouts in 38.1 innings at Triple-A and allowed 13 runs on 27 hits, though eight of those hits were home runs.
In Double-A, Abbott was using a pre-tacked, sticky ball that MLB was experimenting with and hitters were having an impossible time making contact. So, we want to take those numbers with a grain of salt, but his velocity is up across the board and the Reds have worked to deepen his arsenal after he was primarily a reliever in college. He’s also left-handed, which can’t hurt against the Brewers, who are still 30th in wOBA against lefties and have struck out over 29% of the time.
Julio Teheran makes his third start for Milwaukee, as he has allowed just one earned runs (two total) over 11 innings of work with a 5/1 K/BB ratio. He faced 22 batters in his last start and didn’t strike out any of them. He’s allowed a 38.9% Hard Hit% and an 8.3% Barrel% in his two starts. He also has just a 5.6% SwStr% on the season with a low Chase Rate of just 17.7% per Statcast.
Teheran had a 5.63 ERA with a 5.56 FIP in his eight Triple-A starts with the Padres before the Brewers traded for him to get some rotation help. He had 45 strikeouts in 40 innings, but also gave up seven homers, mostly pitching in high elevation. He’s a fly ball pitcher and I’m not sure I love that on a warm evening in Cincinnati.
The betting market drove this price up overnight, as the Reds are anywhere from -125 to -130 at most shops. I think that’s a pretty reasonable line. Those that hopped on overnight around -110 got a better number for sure. It’s a little rich for my blood now.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (-170, 8.5)
Kyle Hendricks and Blake Snell are the listed starters for this one as the Cubs and Padres play the rare wraparound series. After a rocky 2023 debut, Hendricks had a nice start against the Rays with one run allowed on six hits, though he did only have three strikeouts against three walks. He fell victim to some batted ball variance in his first start against the Mets, as he only allowed a 28.6% Hard Hit%, but five runs (three earned) on six hits.
Hendricks has a 33.3% Hard Hit% through two starts and has allowed just two barrels. He had a 9.3% SwStr% in each of his two starts and should get stronger with each outing, as long as he is healthy. His high walk rate and low strikeout rate have given him a 6.69 xERA in the early going, but that should come down as well.
Snell continues to be one of my enemies in the betting markets as a guy who doesn’t end up pitching all that well, but finds a way to limit the runs he has allowed. He has a 4.50 ERA with a 5.07 FIP, but has allowed three or fewer earned runs in nine of his 11 starts. He just doesn’t work deep into games and that winds up leaving him with a high ERA. He tied a season-high with five walks against the Cubs back on April 25, but only gave up two runs on four hits.
The Cubs still have a top-five offense against lefties with a .353 wOBA and a 123 wRC+. The Padres are only 25th in wOBA against righties at .299 with a 90 wRC+. I lean towards the Cubs at this price, but Snell has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts and he just keeps finding ways to do it, so I’m not confident in fading him or backing Hendricks.
Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays (-120, 10)
I see all of the regression signs that are present for Brandon Bielak, but this is a really big number for Alek Manoah, who comes into this start with a 5.46 ERA, a 6.44 xERA, and a 6.27 FIP in his 57.2 innings of work. Manoah has just a 17.6% K% and a 15% BB%. That’s not exactly the kind of profile worth investing in, especially against a Houston offense that has been a top-10 unit for the better part of a month.
But, it’s also tough to invest in Bielak, who has a 3.19 ERA with a 5.48 xERA and a 5.16 FIP in his 31 innings of work. He’s got a 90.2% LOB%, which is doing a lot of the heavy lifting with his ERA. He’s allowed a 44.6% Hard Hit% and a 13% Barrel% over 92 batted ball events. The Blue Jays rank fourth in wOBA against righties at .335 and have a 114 wRC+, so it’s been a good split for them. Also, they have the sixth-lowest K% in that split. Bielak just faced a Minnesota offense that has the highest K% and also had swing-and-miss success against Oakland, who ranks 29th.
It’s just hard to find a play here. The total of 10 is pretty fair, but the Jays have only scored 4.24 R/G at home, despite some more favorable dimensions. Games at Rogers Centre have averaged just 7.72 R/G. The pitching matchup certainly lends itself to a higher total, but that doesn’t mean I can bet the over and a side is tough to take as well.
Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies (-240, 8.5)
The Tigers and Phillies battle it out today with Joey Wentz for Detroit and Aaron Nola for Philadelphia, hence the big favorite role. The Phillies are only 23rd in wOBA against lefties on the season with the league’s lowest BB% at 5.4%, but they’ve been able to hit for a little power. Wentz has a 40/17 K/BB ratio with nine homers allowed in 47 innings. He’s got a 7.28 ERA with a 5.16 FIP with a .351 BABIP and a 61.7% LOB%.
He has allowed a 45% Hard Hit% with a 9.4% Barrel%, so he’s given up quite a bit of loud contact this season. In fact, he’s allowed a 57.1% Hard Hit% over his last four starts, so he’s earned his 10.38 ERA in that span.
Nola heads into this one with a 4.70 ERA, 3.81 xERA, and a 4.40 FIP. His big decrease in K% is one thing that really stands out and he’s also allowed 12 homers in 74.2 innings after allowing 19 homers in 205 innings last season. Nola has a 65/18 K/BB ratio after having 235 K against just 29 walks last season. His K% is down over 7.5% this year and his BB% is up from 3.6% to 6.0%.
I don’t see anything worth taking in this game either. It’s a pretty tough card today for only having eight games.
Kansas City Royals at Miami Marlins (-155, 7.5)
Carlos Hernandez will start for the Royals and Mike Mayers will follow as this interleague series gets underway down in the Sunshine State. Braxton Garrett gets the call for the Marlins against a Royals lineup that has a .319 wOBA and a 99 wRC+ against lefties on the season. It’s been the better of the two splits for them, but their numbers still aren’t terribly impressive.
Garrett has a 4.22 ERA with a 4.00 FIP, but as I’ve talked about in each one of his starts, he gave up 11 runs to the Braves on May 3 in just 4.1 innings. Take that start away and Garrett has a 2.57 ERA in his other nine starts and one relief appearance. He’s allowed just four earned runs in his last four starts with 12 hits allowed over 21.2 innings of work. He’s also given up just four homers aside from that Braves game.
Hernandez has a 4.76 ERA, but a 3.42 xERA and a 2.83 FIP in his 28.1 innings of work. He has a 63.8% LOB%, despite adding a ton of strikeout upside with a 31.9% K%. Mayers is a much bigger surprise, as the journeyman right-hander has a 1.35 ERA with a 3.28 FIP in 13.1 innings with two runs allowed on 10 hits. He’s struck out 14 and walked five with a 95.6% LOB%.
There are certainly a lot of reasons to look into fading Mayers, who has a career 4.90 ERA with a 4.56 FIP at the MLB level. This is a stiff price with a Marlins team that doesn’t score a lot of runs, especially against right-handed pitching. I gave some thought to the under here, since these are two low-scoring offenses in a good pitcher’s park, but I really don’t know how long Mayers can keep this up.
Oakland A’s at Pittsburgh Pirates (-175, 8.5)
JP Sears and Johan Oviedo square off here as the A’s stay in the Eastern Time Zone for a bit. Sears has a 4.37 ERA with a 4.87 xERA and a 5.16 FIP. He’s given up too many homers this season, but that’s really the only issue in his profile. Of course, it is a big issue and one that is very hard to ignore. He has a decent K% at 22.2% and a tremendous BB% at 4.5%. He’s got a 77.2% LOB%, which is perfectly reasonable, and he’s allowed just six earned runs in his last four starts.
But, he’s given up 13 homers out of the 53 hits that he has allowed. He is a full-fledged fly ball pitcher with a 27.9% GB%, so the homers are just going to happen. What concerns me is that he’s only struck out three of the last 40 batters that he has faced, which requires some batted ball luck to work around. He’s allowed a 12.8% Barrel% and a 41.3% Hard Hit, but his HH% is 52% in his last three starts against the Astros, Mariners, and Braves.
The Pirates have only hit 21 homers over the last 30 days, which ranks tied for 26th. They have a 90 wRC+ in that span. After getting off to such a hot offensive start in April, they’ve been more like what we expected over the last month-plus.
The odyssey of Oviedo is a really interesting one this season. He was bad in his first start against the Red Sox, but then allowed just two earned runs in three starts. Then he allowed 17 earned runs over three starts before his most recent run, which features six earned runs allowed in his last four outings. In that span, he has a 2.57 ERA with a 4.76 FIP and has walked 15 batters in 21 innings. He has an 88.2% LOB% and a .228 BABIP.
So, I don’t really know what to fully expect here, though the A’s are just 29th in road wOBA since May 1. They were actually a really good offense on the road in April, but they’ve turned back into a pumpkin ever since.
The Pirates bullpen is really up against it here and also tomorrow. David Bednar worked three straight days and threw 42 pitches to secure three saves. Yohan Ramirez has also worked three straight days and four of the last five. Dauri Moreta has worked B2B days and Colin Holderman threw 45 pitches Friday/Saturday. I think it’s tough to take a full game with them here in light of that.
I gave some thought to the 1st 5 under, but ultimately passed on it.
St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers (-135, 10)
It will be Adam Wainwright and Martin Perez down in Arlington as the Cardinals face the surging Rangers. Texas has the second-most wins in baseball and is racking up over six runs per game. A matchup against Wainwright seems like a favorable one for Texas, as he’s allowed 21 runs on 37 hits in just 26.1 innings since returning from the IL. He’s allowed 13 barrels in his last four starts and only has 16 strikeouts with eight walks.
He hasn’t located very well and only has a 5.9% SwStr% through his five starts. The Rangers have a .381 wOBA at home against righties this season, which is the best in baseball by a wide margin. They also have the best offense overall against righties, so this seems like a really tough spot for Wainwright and his 6.15 ERA with a 4.46 FIP and a 6.48 xERA.
Martin Perez has also been riding the struggle bus a bit. He gave up six runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings to the Tigers on May 30 in his last start. Over his last five starts, some regression has come to the forefront with a 6.91 ERA and a 6.14 FIP over 27.1 innings. He’s allowed 21 runs on 36 hits with six homers allowed and 11 walks. He’s given up a 42.3% Hard Hit% in that span and an 11.3% Barrel%.
The Cardinals are still a top-10 offense against lefties with a .336 wOBA and Perez is a lefty not locating very well right now. A 1st 5 total of 5.5 is definitely on the high side, but there will be a lot of balls in play here and two pitchers struggling to locate.
Pick: 1st 5 Over 5.5 (-115)
Tampa Bay Rays (-150, 9) at Boston Red Sox
The makeup game between the Rays and Red Sox draws the bottom spot on the board by rotation number. It will be Shane McClanahan for the visiting favorites and Brayan Bello for the home team. Mac has allowed more than two runs in a start just once and has a 2.07 ERA with a 3.40 FIP over 69.2 innings of work. He’s struck out 82 and walked 27, so he’s been extremely sharp, especially with just 53 hits allowed.
That said, he does have a 91.2% LOB% that is going to come down at some point. The highest LOB% in a full season belongs to Robbie Ray at 90.1% back in 2021. The next highest is John Candelaria at 88.8% in 1977, followed by Justin Verlander in 2019 at 88.4%. Dating back to 1976 (picked a random year), there have only been 22 individual seasons of 85% or higher in the LOB% and six of them are currently taking place this season. Five more of them came during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. It’s just not something that I would expect to last.
Bello has a 3.89 ERA with a 5.10 xERA and a 4.73 FIP in his 39.1 innings of work. His peripherals are a little scary, especially with a lot of hard contact in the profile, but he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since his 2023 debut on April 17. His 50% Hard Hit% really stands out from a xERA standpoint, but he also has a 59.7% GB%, so he’s done a fine job of keeping the ball down.
No play from me here. Not much on the card that I like.
TL;DR Recap
STL/TEX 1st 5 Over 5.5 (-115)
